四川柑橘适宜分布及其对气候变化的响应研究

林正雨; 陈强; 邓良基; 李晓; 何鹏; 熊鹰

doi:10.13930/j.cnki.cjea.180983

四川柑橘适宜分布及其对气候变化的响应研究

doi: 10.13930/j.cnki.cjea.180983

林正雨^{1, 2, ,},
陈强¹,
邓良基¹,
李晓^{2, 3},
何鹏^{2, 3},
熊鹰²

1.
四川农业大学资源学院成都 611130
2.
四川省农业科学院农业信息与农村经济研究所成都 610066
3.
四川省农业科学院农业大数据研究中心成都 610066

基金项目:

国家自然科学基金项目 71603178

四川省软科学计划项目 2018ZR0196

四川省财政创新能力提升工程 2018QNJJ010

详细信息

作者简介:
林正雨, 主要研究方向为农业资源利用与区域农业发展研究。E-mail:1456875524@qq.com

中图分类号: F323.2;P467
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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2018-11-07
- 录用日期: 2019-02-17
- 刊出日期: 2019-06-01

Response of suitable distribution of citrus in Sichuan Province to climate change

LIN Zhengyu^{1, 2
, ,},
CHEN Qiang¹,
DENG Liangji¹,
LI Xiao^{2, 3},
HE Peng^{2, 3},
XIONG Ying²

1.
College of Resources, Sichuan Agricultural University, Chengdu 611130, China
2.
Agricultural Information and Rural Economy Institute of Sichuan Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Chengdu 610066, China
3.
Big Data Center of Sichuan Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Chengdu 610066, China

Funds:

the National Natural Science Foundation of China 71603178

the Soft Science Project of Sichuan Province 2018ZR0196

the Financial Innovation Ability Enhancement Project of Sichuan Province 2018QNJJ010

More Information

Corresponding author: LIN Zhengyu, E-mail:1456875524@qq.com

摘要

摘要: 柑橘是四川省和我国主要水果产品之一。以气候为主的环境变化，对作物空间布局产生了显著影响。为合理优化柑橘生产空间，本研究基于最大熵模型（MaxEnt）构建柑橘适宜分布与环境变量的关系模型，运用受试者工作特征曲线（ROC曲线）检测模型精度，刀切法（Jackknife）筛选主导环境变量；采用ArcGIS技术对比1980年、2010年四川柑橘适宜区分布，揭示近30 a气候变化背景下四川省柑橘适宜区的分布与变化情况。结果显示：四川柑橘适宜性的主导环境变量主要体现为以光、热、水为特征的气候环境变量。近30 a四川省气候暖干化的变化趋势改变了区域生态系统的结构和功能，引起了柑橘种植适宜区的时空变化。1980—2010年柑橘种植适宜性空间格局呈现出2个变化特征，一是高适宜区呈整体向北迁移的趋势，主要分布在成都平原区与川东北地区过渡地区；中适宜区界线向东南方迁移。二是适宜性级别呈现出逐级调整，低、中适宜区的等级调整变化明显。2010年高适宜区面积约为4.22万km²，中适宜区4.19万km²，低适宜区4.4万km²，大部分地区为不适宜区。以高适宜区为参照，通过政策措施，政府部门可增加在川南地区、成都平原地区南部的柑橘生产布局。本研究客观地反映了气候变化下，四川省柑橘种植适宜性变化特征，合理确定了柑橘适宜性面积及分布，为柑橘空间优化提供了科学依据。最大熵模型在对物种分布进行准确模拟和预测时具有较强应用价值，对作物气候适宜性区划具有重要指导意义。但对于不同区域和作物应选取合适的环境变量、空间尺度和物种采样位置，减少系统累计误差，提高作物气候适宜区划定精度。
- 柑橘 /
- 地理分布 /
- 自然适宜性 /
- 最大熵模型 /
- 四川省
Abstract: Citrus is one of the main fruit products of Sichuan Province, China. Due to favorable market expectations and the low occurrence of citrus diseases in Sichuan basin, there is a trend of blind expansion of citrus cultivation. However, climate change has had a significant impact on the spatial distribution of crops, and has caused the instability and vulnerability of citrus production in Sichuan. In order to optimize the citrus production space, this study established a model of the relationship between the distribution of areas suitable for growing citrus and environmental variables based on the maximum entropy model (MaxEnt), used the ROC curve to determine the model's accuracy, and used the jackknife method to screen out the dominant environmental variables. The distribution of citrus-suitable areas in Sichuan Province in 1980 and 2010 were compared using ArcGIS, revealing the changes in citrus-suitable areas over nearly 30 years of climate change. The results showed that the dominant environmental variables determining citrus suitability in Sichuan were climatic variables characterized by light, heat, and water. During these 30 years, the trend of climate warming and drying in Sichuan Province changed the structure and function of the regional ecosystem, and caused temporal and spatial variations in citrus-suitable areas. There were two broad changes in the spatial pattern of citrus-suitable areas from 1980 to 2010. First, the highly suitable areas tended to migrate to the north. The boundary of moderately suitable areas located between Chengdu Plain area and northeastern Sichuan Province moved to the southeast. Second, the suitability grade changed in a stepwise fashion. The change in the grades in marginally and moderately suitable areas was obvious. In 2010, the total highly suitable area was about 42 200 km², moderately suitable areas covered about 41 900 km², and the least suitable areas covered 44 000 km²; most of the province was not suitable. Using this data of the highly suitable areas, government departments can create policies to increase the quantity of citrus in the south Sichuan region and the southern Shengdu Plain. This study objectively assessed the changes in suitability for planting citrus in Sichuan Province under climate change, and provided a scientific basis for the optimization of citrus space. Application of the maximum entropy model is valuable for accurate simulation and prediction of crop distribution and can be important in guiding crop climatic suitability zoning. However, appropriate environmental variables, spatial scale, and species sampling locations should be selected for different regions and crops to reduce systematic cumulative error and improve the precision of crop climatic suitability zoning.
- Citrus /
- Geographical distribution /
- Natural suitability /
- Maximum entropy(MaxEnt)model /
- Sichuan Province

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图 1 四川省地理分区图

Figure 1. Geographical regions map of Sichuan Province

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图 2 四川省柑橘分布、土壤样点及气象台站分布

Figure 2. Distribution of citrus, soil samples and meteorological stations in Sichuan Province

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图 3 1980年和2010年初始环境变量对四川省柑橘分布的贡献度(AUC)

Figure 3. Contribution rates (AUC) of initial environmental variables affecting distribution of citrus in Sichuan Province in 1980 and 2010

The meaning of the abbreviate in the figure was shown in the table 1.

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图 4 1980年(a)和2010年(b)四川省年日照时数分布与变化

Figure 4. Distribution of annual sunshine duration in Sichuan Province in 1980 (a) and 2010 (b)

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图 5 1980年(a)和2010年(b)四川省年均温度分布

Figure 5. Distribution of annual average temperature of Sichuan Province in 1980 (a) and 2010 (b)

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图 6 1980年(a)和2010年(b)四川省最热月均温分布

Figure 6. Distribution of July average temperature of Sichuan Province in 1980 (a) and 2010 (b)

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图 7 1980年(a)和2010年(b)四川省年降雨量分布

Figure 7. Distribution of annual precipitation of Sichuan Province in 1980 (a) and 2010 (b)

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图 8 1980年(a)和2010年(b)四川省无霜期分布

Figure 8. Distribution of frost-free period of Sichuan Province in 1980 (a) and 2010 (b)

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图 9 1980年(a)和2010年(b)四川省柑橘适宜区空间分布

Figure 9. Spatial distribution of suitable areas for citrus in Sichuan Province in 1980 (a) and 2010 (b)

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表 1 影响柑橘适宜分布的初始环境变量

Table 1. Initial environmental variables affecting suitable distribution of citrus

类别 Category	初始环境变量 Initial environmental variables	代码 Code	变量意义 Variable significance
气候类 Climate	年日照时数Annual sunshine duration	sun	影响柑橘的光合作用Affecting the photosynthesis of citrus
	年平均气温Annual average temperature	ta	反映年总的热量情况Reflecting the total annual heat
	≥0 ℃积温 Accumulated temperature ≥0 ℃	att0	作物生长期内适宜的热量资源 Suitable heat resource during crop growing period
	≥10 ℃积温 Accumulated temperature ≥10 ℃	att10	喜温植物生长期内的累积热量 Accumulated heat of a thermophilic plant during its growth
	≥10 ℃持续天数 ≥10 ℃ lasting days	att10d	喜温植物生长期温度强度的持续时间 Duration of temperature intensity during the growth of a thermophilic plant
	最热月平均气温 July average temperature	julyta	气温过高(≥38 ℃)将抑制柑橘生长 Excessive temperature (≥38 ℃) will inhibit citrus growth
	无霜期Frost-free period	ffp	柑橘生长时期的长短Affect the growth time of citrus
	年温差 Annual temperature difference	tad	一年中月平均温度的变化幅度 Variation of the monthly mean temperature
	最冷月平均气温 January average temperature	janta	柑橘能否安全越冬 Wintering conditions for citrus
	年降水量 Annual precipitation	pre	年总的水分条件 Total annual moisture conditions
	秋季降水量 Autumn precipitation	preaut	7—9月的水分供应情况, 影响柑橘果实的大小 Precipitation from July to September affects the size of citrus fruit
	花期日均温 Average daily temperature of flowering	fpta	4—5月日均温, 影响柑橘基础产量 Average daily temperature from April to May affects the yield of citrus
土壤类 Soil	有机质 Organic matter	om	影响柑橘树基础产量、果实品质 Affecting the base yield and fruit quality of citrus
	pH	pH	偏酸(pH < 4.8)和偏碱(pH > 8.5)不适于柑橘生长 Neither pH < 4.8 nor pH > 8.5 is suitable for citrus growth
	全氮 Total nitrogen	tn	氮肥与转化糖、还原糖、维生素C呈正相关, 与总酸度呈负相关 Nitrogen fertilizer is positively correlated with invert sugar, reducing sugar and vitamin C, and negatively correlated with total acidity
	全磷 Total phosphorus	tp	磷肥能降低果实酸度, 提高固酸比 Phosphate fertilizer can reduce fruit acidity and improve solid-acid ratio
	全钾 Total potassium	tk	钾肥可以提高单果重, 增加果皮厚度, 提高可溶性固形物含量, 减少裂果发生 Potassium fertilizer can increase single fruit weight, peel thickness, soluble solid content and reduce cracking
	黏粒含量Clay content	clay	影响到土壤的保肥供肥、通气排水能力, 间接影响柑橘生长 Affecting fertilizer supply, ventilation and drainage, and indirectly affecting citrus growth
	粉粒含量Silt content	silt
	砂粒含量Sand content	sand
地形类 Topography	坡度 Slope	slope	山坡地的排水通气性良好, 易形成逆温层有利于柑橘生长 Drainage and ventilation of slope land is good, easy to form inversion layer, conducive to citrus growth
	坡向 Aspect	aspect	直接影响光照、降水等因素, 并影响到柑橘产量、外型和品质 Yield and quality of citrus are indirectly affected by the redistribution of light and precipitation
	海拔 Elevation	dem	通过温度间接影响柑橘生长 Indirectly affecting citrus growth by affecting temperature

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表 2 1980年和2010年初始环境变量对四川省柑橘分布的相对贡献度

Table 2. Relative contribution rates of initial environmental variables to the distribution of citrus in Sichuan Province in 1980 and 2010

初始环境变量 Initial environmental variable	相对贡献度Relative contribution rate (%)			变化幅度 Amplitude of alteration (%)
初始环境变量 Initial environmental variable	1980	2010	均值Mean value	变化幅度 Amplitude of alteration (%)
海拔Elevation	76.60	67.80	72.20	11.49
年日照时数Annual sunshine duration	9.00	5.30	7.15	41.11
年平均气温Annual average temperature	4.10	5.20	4.65	26.83
年降水量Annual precipitation	2.80	5.80	4.30	107.14
坡度Slope	1.80	2.10	1.95	16.67
≥0 ℃积温Accumulated temperature ≥0 ℃	1.70	0.00	0.85	100.00
最热月平均气温July average temperature	1.20	8.30	4.75	591.67
粉粒含量Silt	1.20	0.00	0.60	100.00
无霜期Frost-free period	0.60	2.80	1.70	366.67
年温差Annual temperature difference	0.40	0.20	0.30	50.00
≥10 ℃持续天数≥10 ℃ lasting days	0.20	0.10	0.15	50.00
黏粒含量Clay	0.20	1.10	0.65	450.00
最冷月平均气温January average temperature	0.10	0.00	0.05	100.00
pH	0.10	0.00	0.05	100.00
坡向Aspect	0.00	0.00	0.00	—
全氮Total nitrogen	0.00	0.20	0.10	—
秋季降水量Autumn precipitation	0.00	0.10	0.05	—
全钾Total potassium	0.00	0.20	0.10	—
花期日均温Average daily temperature of flowering	0.00	0.00	0.00	—
砂粒含量Sand content	0.00	0.50	0.25	—
≥10 ℃积温Accumulated temperature ≥10 ℃	0.00	0.00	0.00	—
全磷Total phosphorus	0.00	0.40	0.20	—
有机质Organic matter	0.00	0.00	0.00	—

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表 3 1980年和2010年四川省不同区域不同类型柑橘适宜区的面积变化

Table 3. Area variation of different citrus suitable areas in different regions of Sichuan Province in 1980 and 2010

10⁴km²
区域 Region	市州 City	不适宜区 Non-suitable area			低适宜区 Low suitable area			中适宜区 Middle suitable area			高适宜区 High suitable area
区域 Region	市州 City	1980	2010	变化 Change	1980	2010	变化 Change	1980	2010	变化 Change	1980	2010	变化 Change
成都平原区 Chengdu Plain Region	成都市 Chengdu	0.19	0.28	0.09	0.28	0.24	-0.04	0.51	0.43	-0.08	0.23	0.26	0.03
	德阳市 Deyang	0.11	0.13	0.02	0.23	0.30	0.07	0.23	0.14	-0.09	0.04	0.03	-0.01
	绵阳市 Mianyang	1.15	1.27	0.12	0.65	0.70	0.05	0.22	0.05	-0.17	0.00	0.00	0.00
	眉山市 Meishan	0.06	0.06	0.00	0.05	0.05	0.00	0.15	0.09	-0.06	0.45	0.52	0.07
	资阳市 Ziyang	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.56	0.57	0.01	0.23	0.22	-0.01
川东北地区 Northeast Sichuan Region	南充市 Nanchong	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.43	0.35	-0.08	0.68	0.71	0.03	0.13	0.19	0.06
	遂宁市 Suining	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.02	0.05	0.03	0.39	0.43	0.04	0.12	0.05	-0.07
	达州市 Dazhou	0.53	0.56	0.03	0.46	0.42	-0.04	0.47	0.46	-0.01	0.19	0.21	0.02
	广安市 Guang’an	0.01	0.00	-0.01	0.09	0.07	-0.02	0.29	0.27	-0.02	0.24	0.28	0.04
	巴中市 Bazhong	0.59	0.59	0.00	0.48	0.54	0.06	0.15	0.09	-0.06	0.00	0.00	0.00
	广元市 Guangyuan	1.26	1.17	-0.09	0.36	0.45	0.09	0.00	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00
川南地区 South Sichuan Region	自贡市 Zigong	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.03	0.03	0.00	0.40	0.40	0.00
	内江市 Neijiang	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.01	0.00	-0.01	0.09	0.13	0.04	0.43	0.40	-0.03
	泸州市 Luzhou	0.10	0.09	-0.01	0.44	0.43	-0.01	0.15	0.15	0.00	0.53	0.54	0.01
	宜宾市 Yibin	0.05	0.07	0.02	0.27	0.28	0.01	0.28	0.32	0.04	0.72	0.64	-0.08
	乐山市 Leshan	0.39	0.38	-0.01	0.25	0.25	0.00	0.14	0.15	0.01	0.48	0.48	0.00
川西北地区 Northwest Sichuan Region	阿坝州 Aba	8.25	8.26	0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
川西北地区 Northwest Sichuan Region	甘孜州 Ganzi	15.05	15.05	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
攀西山地区 Panxi Region	攀枝花市 Panzhihua	0.74	0.74	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
	雅安市 Ya’an	1.18	1.14	-0.04	0.19	0.22	0.03	0.13	0.15	0.02	0.02	0.01	-0.01
	凉山州 Liangshan	5.98	5.96	-0.02	0.03	0.04	0.01	0.00	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00
合计 Total		35.66	35.78	0.11	4.25	4.40	0.15	4.47	4.19	-0.28	4.20	4.22	0.02

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表 4 1980—2010年四川省柑橘适宜区转移矩阵

Table 4. Transfer matrix of suitable areas for citrus in Sichuan Province from 1980 to 2010

km²
		2010
		不适宜区 Non-suitable area	低适宜区 Low suitable area	中适宜区 Middle suitable area	高适宜区 High suitable area	总计 Total
1980	不适宜区Non-suitable area	354 162.10	2 618.73	0.37	—	356 781.20
	低适宜区Low suitable area	3 816.55	36 274.24	2 414.26	0.59	42 505.63
	中适宜区Middle suitable area	1.05	5 146.21	36 334.38	3 281.45	44 763.09
	高适宜区High suitable area	—	3.14	3 131.72	38 929.07	42 063.93
	总计Total	357 979.69	44 042.31	41 880.73	42 211.12	486 113.85

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表 5 1980年和2010年四川省不同区域不同类型柑橘适宜区面积及2015年柑橘生产面积

Table 5. Areas of different citrus suitable areas in 1980 and 2010 and production areas in 2015 in different regions of Sichuan Province

10⁴km²
区域 Region	不适宜区 Non-suitable area		低适宜区 Low suitable area		中适宜区 Middle suitable area		高适宜区 High suitable area		2015柑橘面积 Production area in 2015
区域 Region	1980	2010	1980	2010	1980	2010	1980	2010	2015柑橘面积 Production area in 2015
成都平原区 Chengdu Plain Region	1.51	1.74	1.22	1.29	1.66	1.28	0.94	1.02	0.12
川东北地区 Northeast Sichuan Region	2.40	2.33	1.83	1.89	1.99	1.96	0.69	0.73	0.07
川南地区 South Sichuan Region	0.55	0.55	0.97	0.97	0.69	0.79	2.56	2.46	0.08
川西北地区 Northwest Sichuan Region	23.31	23.31	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
攀西山地区 Panxi Region	7.90	7.85	0.22	0.26	0.13	0.15	0.02	0.01	0.01
合计 Total	35.66	35.78	4.25	4.40	4.47	4.19	4.20	4.22	0.28

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