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气候变暖背景下中国三大棉区水热时空变化

韩婉瑞 雷亚平 李亚兵 韩迎春 王国平 冯璐 李小飞 张永江 王占彪

韩婉瑞, 雷亚平, 李亚兵, 韩迎春, 王国平, 冯璐, 李小飞, 张永江, 王占彪. 气候变暖背景下中国三大棉区水热时空变化[J]. 中国生态农业学报(中英文), 2021, 29(8): 1430-1441. doi: 10.13930/j.cnki.cjea.210131
引用本文: 韩婉瑞, 雷亚平, 李亚兵, 韩迎春, 王国平, 冯璐, 李小飞, 张永江, 王占彪. 气候变暖背景下中国三大棉区水热时空变化[J]. 中国生态农业学报(中英文), 2021, 29(8): 1430-1441. doi: 10.13930/j.cnki.cjea.210131
HAN Wanrui, LEI Yaping, LI Yabing, HAN Yingchun, WANG Guoping, FENG Lu, LI Xiaofei, ZHANG Yongjiang, WANG Zhanbiao. Spatiotemporal characteristics of heat and rainfall in the three cotton areas of China under climate warming[J]. Chinese Journal of Eco-Agriculture, 2021, 29(8): 1430-1441. doi: 10.13930/j.cnki.cjea.210131
Citation: HAN Wanrui, LEI Yaping, LI Yabing, HAN Yingchun, WANG Guoping, FENG Lu, LI Xiaofei, ZHANG Yongjiang, WANG Zhanbiao. Spatiotemporal characteristics of heat and rainfall in the three cotton areas of China under climate warming[J]. Chinese Journal of Eco-Agriculture, 2021, 29(8): 1430-1441. doi: 10.13930/j.cnki.cjea.210131

气候变暖背景下中国三大棉区水热时空变化

doi: 10.13930/j.cnki.cjea.210131
基金项目: 

国家重点研发计划项目 2020YFD1001000

中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费专项 1610162021037

详细信息
    作者简介:

    韩婉瑞, 主要从事作物栽培学与耕作方面的研究。E-mail: hanwanrui1996@163.com

    通讯作者:

    张永江, 主要从事棉花栽培生理和光谱监测方面的研究, E-mail: yongjiangzh@sina.com

    王占彪, 主要从事作物栽培学与耕作方面的研究, E-mail: wang_zhanbiao@126.com

  • 中图分类号: S161.1;S562

Spatiotemporal characteristics of heat and rainfall in the three cotton areas of China under climate warming

Funds: 

the National Key Research and Development Plan of China 2020YFD1001000

the Special Funds for Fundamental Scientific Research Operation of Central Public Welfare Scientific Research Institutes of China 1610162021037

More Information
  • 摘要: 气候变化背景下,我国棉区气候资源也发生了相应的变化。研究棉花各生育期的水热时空变化特征,并提出相应技术与策略,对气候变化背景下稳定我国棉花生产具有重要意义。本文基于我国三大棉区——西北内陆(总产占全国80%以上,包括北疆亚区、南疆亚区、东疆亚区及河西走廊亚区)、黄河流域及长江流域棉区377个气象站点的逐日气象数据和50个农业气象试验站的物候期数据,分析了1961—2017年棉花各生育阶段及全生育期的生长度日(GDD)、高温度日(HDD)、降水量及其气候倾向率的时空分布,并提出应对策略。结果显示,1)1961—2017年,三大棉区GDD总体呈增加趋势,全生育期有94.16%的站点棉花GDD呈增加的趋势,各生育阶段GDD倾向率高值(除播种—出苗、吐絮—收获期)主要分布在东疆亚区的淖毛湖、哈密、伊吾及红柳河一带,河西走廊亚区的酒泉、高台及张掖一带,其次是北疆亚区。2)各生育时期HDD空间分布差异明显,现蕾—开花期、开花—吐絮期HDD总体呈增加趋势,分别有85.94%和76.40%站点棉花HDD呈现增加趋势;花铃期前后,长江下游亚区东部、南疆与北疆亚区东部、东疆亚区、河西走廊亚区西部、黄河流域棉区的特早熟亚区西北部及长江流域棉区的长江上游亚区东部棉区,棉花HDD增加趋势明显,高温风险较大;总体上高温风险最小的是北疆亚区。3)棉花全生育期降水量在长江流域的长江中游亚区、长江下游亚区与西北内陆棉区大部呈增加趋势,其他地区均呈减少趋势;棉花全生育期降水量出现北移现象,西北内陆棉区降水量的高值主要分布在北疆亚区,且增加最多。播种—出苗期,除北疆亚区降水量明显增加外,全国大部分棉区干旱风险呈增加趋势。三大棉区GDD总体上均呈现增加的趋势,有利于棉区的扩大与高产优质的潜力挖掘,但需选用具有高产潜力的品种;西北内陆棉区现蕾—吐絮期,在南疆亚区与北疆亚区东部、东疆亚区、河西走廊亚区西部棉花种植存在极端高温风险,生产上需选用抗高温品种,合理水肥运筹等措施,来应对极端高温风险的增加;黄河流域棉区和长江流域棉区北部,干旱风险增加,生产上应采用适当的抗旱品种,采取配套抗旱栽培管理措施来降低气候变化带来的干旱风险。
  • 图  1  我国三大主要植棉区域及其范围内农业气象观测站点的空间分布

    Figure  1.  Spatial distribution of the three major cotton planting areas and their agrometeoroglical stations in China

    图  2  1961—2017年我国西北内陆、黄河及长江流域主要植棉区棉花播种—出苗(A)、出苗—现蕾(B)、现蕾—开花(C)、开花—吐絮(D)、吐絮—收获(E)及全生育期(F)生长度日(GDD)均值的空间分布

    Figure  2.  Spatial distributions of average accumulated growing degree days (GDD) in the main cotton planting areas of Northwest Inland, Yellow River Basin and Yangtze River Basin in China during 1961—2017 at sowing−emergence (A), emergence−squaring (B), squaring−flowering (C), flowering−boll opening (D), boll opening−harvest (E) periods, and the whole growing period (F)

    图  3  1961—2017年我国西北内陆、黄河及长江流域主要植棉区棉花播种—出苗(A)、出苗—现蕾(B)、现蕾—开花(C)、开花—吐絮(D)、吐絮—收获(E)及全生育期(F)生长度日气候倾向率(GDD trends)的空间分布

    Figure  3.  Spatial distributions of climatic trend rates of accumulated growing degree days (GDD trends) in the main cotton planting areas of Northwest Inland, Yellow River Basin and Yangtze River Basin in China during 1961−2017 at sowing−emergence (A), emergence−squaring (B), squaring−flowering (C), flowering−boll opening (D), boll opening−harvest (E) periods, and the whole growing period (F)

    图  4  1961—2017年我国西北内陆、黄河及长江流域主要植棉区棉花播种—出苗(A)、出苗—现蕾(B)、现蕾—开花(C)、开花—吐絮(D)、吐絮—收获(E)及全生育期(F)高温度日(HDD)的均值空间分布

    Figure  4.  Spatial distributions of average accumulated heat degree days (HDD) in the main cotton planting areas of Northwest Inland, Yellow River Basin and Yangtze River Basin in China during 1961−2017 at sowing−emergence (A), emergence−squaring (B), squaring−flowering (C), flowering−boll opening (D), boll opening−harvest (E) periods, and the whole growing period (F)

    图  5  1961—2017年我国西北内陆、黄河及长江流域主要植棉区棉花播种—出苗(A)、出苗—现蕾(B)、现蕾—开花(C)、开花—吐絮(D)、吐絮—收获(E)及全生育期(F)高温度日气候倾向率(HDD trends)的空间分布

    Figure  5.  Spatial distributions of climatic trend rates of accumulated heat degree days (HDD trends) in the main cotton planting areas of Northwest Inland, Yellow River Basin and Yangtze River Basin in China during 1961−2017 at sowing−emergence (A), emergence−squaring (B), squaring−flowering (C), flowering−boll opening (D), boll opening−harvest (E) periods, and the whole growing period (F)

    图  6  1961—2017年我国西北内陆、黄河及长江流域主要植棉区棉花播种—出苗(A)、出苗—现蕾(B)、现蕾—开花(C)、开花—吐絮(D)、吐絮—收获(E)及全生育期(F)降水量(Rainfall)均值的空间分布

    Figure  6.  Spatial distributions of average rainfall (mm) in the main cotton planting areas of Northwest Inland, Yellow River Basin and Yangtze River Basin in China during 1961−2017 at sowing−emergence (A), emergence−squaring (B), squaring−flowering (C), flowering−boll opening (D), boll opening−harvest (E) periods, and the whole growing period (F)

    图  7  1961—2017年我国西北内陆、黄河及长江流域主要植棉区棉花播种—出苗(A)、出苗—现蕾(B)、现蕾—开花(C)、开花—吐絮(D)、吐絮—收获(E)及全生育期(F)降水量气候倾向率(rainfall)的空间分布

    Figure  7.  Spatial distributions of climatic trend rates of rainfall (rainfall trend, mm∙10a−1) in the main cotton planting areas of Northwest Inland, Yellow River Basin and Yangtze River Basin in China during 1961−2017 at sowing−emergence (A), emergence−squaring (B), squaring−flowering (C), flowering−boll opening (D), boll opening−harvest (E) periods, and the whole growing period (F)

    表  1  1961—2017年我国西北内陆、黄河及长江流域主要植棉区棉花现蕾—开花期、开花—吐絮期和全生育期生长度日(GDD)、高温度日(HDD)与降水量观测趋势统计

    Table  1.   Statistics of observed trends of growing degree days (GDD), heat degree days (HDD) and rainfall during squaring–flowering period, flowering–boll opening period and whole growing period of cotton in the main cotton planting areas in China from 1961 to 2017

    棉花生育阶段
    Growth period of cotton
    棉区
    Cotton planting
    area
    n GDD趋势Trend in GDD HDD趋势Trend in HDD 降雨趋势Trend in precipitation
    N N_S P P_S N N_S P P_S N N_S P P_S
    现蕾—开花期
    Squaring–
    flowering period
    203 22 8 181 154 33 4 170 92 75 58 128 115
    139 1 0 138 133 19 3 120 39 67 44 72 36
    Ⅲ1 7 0 0 7 5 0 0 7 1 0 0 7 0
    Ⅲ2 12 1 0 11 6 0 0 12 1 2 0 7 0
    Ⅲ3 9 0 0 9 7 1 0 8 1 1 0 11 0
    Ⅲ4 7 0 0 7 7 0 0 7 0 1 0 6 0
    总计Total 377 24 8 353 312 53 7 324 134 146 102 231 151
    开花—吐絮期
    Flowering–
    boll opening period
    203 84 65 119 110 64 47 139 104 56 52 147 137
    139 17 11 122 117 19 8 120 66 113 97 26 17
    Ⅲ1 7 0 0 7 7 0 0 7 3 2 0 5 0
    Ⅲ2 12 2 2 10 7 5 0 7 2 1 0 11 2
    Ⅲ3 9 0 0 9 7 1 0 8 1 1 0 8 0
    Ⅲ4 7 0 0 7 7 0 0 7 0 3 0 4 0
    总计Total 377 103 78 274 255 89 55 288 176 176 149 201 156
    全生育期
    Whole growing period
    203 16 15 187 181 35 30 168 142 82 77 121 119
    139 5 2 134 133 26 16 113 72 101 92 38 31
    Ⅲ1 7 0 0 7 7 0 0 7 4 0 0 7 1
    Ⅲ2 12 1 1 11 10 4 0 8 5 0 0 12 3
    Ⅲ3 9 0 0 9 9 1 1 8 1 1 1 8 4
    Ⅲ4 7 0 0 7 7 0 0 7 2 1 0 6 1
    总计Total 377 22 18 355 347 66 47 311 226 185 170 192 159
    n表示某一区域的台站总数。N表示趋势为负的站数。N_S表示具有显著负趋势的台站数。P表示趋势为正的站数。P_S表示具有显著正趋势的台站数。各棉区位置及名称见图 1。“n” represents the total number of stations in an area. “N” represents the number of stations with a negative trend. “N_S” represents the number of stations with a significant negative trend. “P” represents the number of stations with a positive trend. “P_S” represents the number of stations with a significant positive trend. The name and location of each cotton planting area is shown in the figure 1.
    下载: 导出CSV
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  • 收稿日期:  2021-03-08
  • 录用日期:  2021-04-14
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