节水灌溉对粮食作物种植的影响

奚云霄; 刘静; 常明

doi:10.12357/cjea.20210693

节水灌溉对粮食作物种植的影响基于农业劳动力资源的调节效应

doi: 10.12357/cjea.20210693

奚云霄^1,,
刘静²,
常明^2, ,

1.
中国人民大学农业与农村发展学院　北京　100872
2.
中国农业科学院农业经济与发展研究所　北京　100081

基金项目: 国家重点研发计划政府间国际科技创新合作/港澳台科技创新合作重点专项项目(2017YFE0133000)资助

详细信息

作者简介:
奚云霄, 研究方向为农村与农业可持续发展。E-mail: xiyunxiao@ruc.edu.cn

通讯作者:
常明, 研究方向为农业资源经济。E-mail: changming@caas.cn

中图分类号: F323.3
计量
- 文章访问数: 1549
- HTML全文浏览量: 115
- PDF下载量: 46
- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2021-10-17
- 录用日期: 2021-11-10
- 网络出版日期: 2021-11-30
- 刊出日期: 2022-03-07

Impact of water-saving irrigation on the planting of food crops based on the regulation effect of agricultural labor resources

XI Yunxiao^1
,,
LIU Jing²,
CHANG Ming^{2
, ,}

1.
School of Agriculture Economics and Rural Development, Renmin University of China, Beijing 100872, China
2.
Institute of Agricultural Economics and Development, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, China

Funds: The study was supported by Joint Research and Development Project Under the Sino-Thai Joint Committee on Science and Technology Cooperation (2017YFE0133000).

More Information

Corresponding author: E-mail: changming@caas.cn

摘要

摘要: 保证粮食播种面积的稳定是确保粮食安全的首要任务。近年来, 中国农业节水灌溉的快速发展有效节约了水资源, 并提高了土地综合生产能力, 为国家的粮食安全提供了有力保障。但节水灌溉措施对粮食播种面积产生何种影响, 相关研究尚未达成共识。因此, 本文运用双向固定效应模型和调节效应模型, 通过2006—2019年的省级面板数据, 以农业劳动力资源为调节变量, 实证分析了节水灌溉措施对粮食作物播种面积的影响及机制。研究发现: 1)在研究年份内, 节水灌溉措施能够显著促进粮食播种面积的增加, 并且农业劳动力越少, 这种促进效应越为显著, 即农业劳动力资源发挥着负向调节作用。2)通过划分作物类型发现, 以上影响作用主要体现在小麦和玉米两种旱地作物, 其对于水稻的影响作用不显著。3)区分节水灌溉措施类型发现, 具有节约劳动力效果的现代节水灌溉措施能够提升小麦和玉米的播种面积, 且其中农业劳动力资源依旧具有负向调节效应; 而不具备明显节约劳动力效果的传统节水灌溉措施仅能促进小麦播种面积的增加。基于以上结论, 本文认为在现阶段中国农业劳动力已大量非农转移的背景下, 可通过因地制宜建设不同类型的节水灌溉措施, 以促进粮食作物的播种面积, 为乡村振兴和社会主义现代化的实现筑牢国家粮食安全的“压舱石”。
- 节水灌溉 /
- 粮食播种面积 /
- 农业劳动力资源 /
- 粮食安全
Abstract: In recent years, the rapid development of agricultural water-saving irrigation in China has effectively saved water resources and increased the comprehensive production capacity of land, thereby providing a strong guarantee for the country’s food security. However, relevant research has not yet reached a consensus on the impact of water-saving irrigation measures on the sown area of grain crops. Therefore, based on provincial panel data from 2006 to 2019, this study used the two-way fixed effect model and the moderating effect model to empirically analyze the impact and mechanism of water-saving irrigation measures on the sown area of grain crops with agricultural labor resources as the moderating variable. The study found that 1) in the study year, water-saving irrigation measures could significantly promote the increase in the sown area of grain crops. The promoting effect was more significant effect under less agricultural labor resources, indicating a negative regulatory role of agricultural labor resources. 2) The promoting effect of water-saving irrigation measures on the sown area of grain crops and the negative regulatory effect of agricultural labor resources were found to be mainly reflected in wheat and corn, and their effects on rice were not significant. 3) By re-differentiating the water-saving irrigation measures into modern (spray irrigation, micro-irrigation, low-pressure pipe irrigation) and traditional (canal seepage control) types, it was found that modern water-saving irrigation measures with labor-saving effects could increase the sown area of wheat and corn, and agricultural labor resources still had a negative regulatory effect; traditional water-saving irrigation measures did not have clear labor-saving effects and could only promote an increase in the wheat planting area. Based on the above conclusions, we believed that in the context of the large non-agricultural transfer of agricultural labor resources at this stage, different types of water-saving irrigation measures could be built according to local conditions to promote the sown area of grain crops, thereby ensuring national food security for the realization of rural revitalization and socialist modernization.
- Water-saving irrigation /
- Sown area of grain crops /
- Agricultural labor resources /
- Food security

HTML全文

图 1 2006—2019年中国粮食作物的播种面积和农业劳动力投入

Figure 1. Sown areas of grain crops and agricultural labor resources in China from 2006 to 2019

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 2 2006—2019年中国各类节水灌溉措施建设面积

Figure 2. Construction areas of various water-saving irrigation measures in China from 2006 to 2019

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

表 1 2006—2019年三大主粮种植区粮食作物播种面积、节水灌溉面积和农业劳动力资源

Table 1. Grain sown area, water-saving irrigation area and agricultural labor resources in three main grain planting area from 2006 to 2019

年份 Year	水稻种植区 Rice planting area			小麦种植区 Wheat planting area			玉米种植区 Corn planting area
年份 Year	水稻播种面积 Rice sown area (×10⁴ hm²)	农业劳动力水平 Agricultural labor level (%)	节水灌溉面积 Water-saving irrigation area (×10⁴ hm²)	小麦播种面积 Wheat sown area (×10⁴ hm²)	农业劳动力水平 Agricultural labor level (%)	节水灌溉面积 Water-saving irrigation area (×10⁴ hm²)	玉米播种面积 Corn sown area (×10⁴ hm²)	农业劳动力水平 Agricultural labor level (%)	节水灌溉面积 Water-saving irrigation area (×10⁴ hm²)
2006	2884.738	44.091	1805.484	2297.619	40.485	2000.053	2845.770	42.566	2233.934
2009	2969.076	40.298	2066.253	2388.488	37.078	2303.041	3293.950	39.134	2563.684
2012	3036.543	37.702	2527.356	2408.449	35.162	2800.162	3908.559	36.697	3105.689
2016	3062.995	33.880	2649.315	2429.346	31.811	2923.077	4415.262	33.068	3269.197
2019	3010.820	31.105	2958.402	2339.434	28.944	3281.600	4125.837	30.317	3686.720
依据各省不同粮食作物种植面积, 水稻的主要区域包括24个省市, 即在本研究样本省份范围内除去北京市、天津市、山西省、甘肃省以及新疆维吾尔自治区; 小麦的主要种植区域包括21个省市, 即在本研究样本省份范围内除去福建省、江西省、湖南省、海南省、重庆市、贵州省、广东省和广西壮族自治区; 玉米在29个省市均有种植, 因此未做省份删减。According to the planting area of different grain crops, the main planting areas of rice include 24 provinces and cities which are the sample provinces except Beijing, Tianjin, Shanxi, Gansu and Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region; and the main planting areas of wheat include 21 provinces and cities which are the sample provinces except Fujian, Jiangxi, Hunan, Hainan, Chongqing, Guizhou, Guangdong and Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region. Since corn is planted in 29 provinces and cities, the main planting areas of corn are all of the sample provinces.

下载: 导出CSV

表 2 节水灌溉措施对粮食播种面积影响及农业劳动力资源调节效应回归结果

Table 2. Regression results of the effects of water-saving irrigation measures on grain sown area of grain crops and the adjustment effect of agricultural labor resources

变量名称 Variable name	模型1: 双向固定模型 Model 1: two-way fixed effects model	模型2: 双向固定模型 (加入调节变量) Model 2: two-way fixed effects model (moderating variable added)	模型3: 双向固定模型 (加入交互项) Model 3: two-way fixed effects model (interaction added)	模型4 (2SLS) IV: 节水灌溉面积一阶滞后项 Model 4 (2SLS) IV: first-order lagging type of water-saving irrigation area	模型5 (2SLS) IV: 农业劳动力资源一阶滞后项 Model 5 (2SLS) IV: first-order lagging type of agricultural labor sources
节水灌溉面积 Water-saving irrigation area	0.320^*** (0.066)	0.316^*** (0.066)	0.763^*** (0.111)	0.883^*** (0.139)	0.746^*** (0.105)
农业劳动力资源 Agricultural labor resources		−1312** (665.4)	149.6 (709.8)	650.9 (679.2)	−475.2 (838.5)
农业劳动力资源×节水灌溉面积 Agricultural labor resources × water-saving irrigation area			−1.874^*** (0.381)	−2.509^*** (0.442)	−2.058^*** (0.369)
自然灾害程度 Degree of natural disaster	123.9 (127.7)	123.7 (127.6)	93.60 (123.8)	−32.03 (110.7)	−18.82 (110.5)
机械化水平 Mechanization level	0.175^*** (0.026)	0.172^*** (0.026)	0.157^*** (0.026)	0.124^*** (0.023)	0.123^*** (0.023)
非农产业比重 Proportion of non-agricultural industries	−9039^*** (976.3)	−9466^*** (999.7)	−8275^*** (998.2)	−6729^*** (953.7)	−7206^*** (970.4)
农业收入比重 Proportion of agricultural income	−111.0 (411.6)	16.62 (416.8)	−167.1 (405.5)	−49.87 (367.0)	76.89 (371.6)
劳动力价格 Labor price	−0.0596^*** (0.011)	−0.0544^*** (0.012)	−0.0630^*** (0.011)	−0.0596^*** (0.010)	−0.0557^*** (0.011)
粮食价格支持政策 Grain price support policy	已控制 Controlled	已控制 Controlled	已控制 Controlled	已控制 Controlled	已控制 Controlled
时间效应 Time effect	已控制 Controlled	已控制 Controlled	已控制 Controlled	已控制 Controlled	已控制 Controlled
地区效应 Regional effect	已控制 Controlled	已控制 Controlled	已控制 Controlled	已控制 Controlled	已控制 Controlled
常数项 Constant term	9278^*** (986.3)	9762^*** (1016)	8515^*** (1016)	7552^*** (997.0)	8007^*** (1002)
第一阶段F值 F value of the first stage				362.558^***	487.798^***
观测值 Observation	406	406	406	377	377
R²	0.994	0.994	0.994	0.995	0.995
*、和分别表示在P<1%、P<5%和P<10%水平显著。表中数据为回归结果, 括号内数值为回归结果的标准误。, and * represent the significance in the levels of P<1%, P<5% and P<10%, respectively. Data in the table are the regression results, and values in parentheses are the standard errors for the regression results.

下载: 导出CSV

表 3 节水灌溉措施对不同粮食作物播种面积的影响及农业劳动力资源调节效应的回归结果

Table 3. Regression results of the effects of water-saving irrigation measures on sown areas of different crops and the adjustment effect of agricultural labor resources

变量名称 Variable name	水稻播种面积 Rice sown area	小麦播种面积 Wheat sown area	玉米播种面积 Corn sown area
变量名称 Variable name	模型6 Model 6	模型7 Model 7	模型8 Model 8
节水灌溉面积	0.078	0.311^***	0.627^***
Water-saving irrigation area	(0.070)	(0.050)	(0.103)
农业劳动力资源	128.3	−605.0	379.8
Agricultural labor resources	(407.8)	(380.5)	(655.3)
农业劳动力资源×节水灌溉面积	−0.602^**	−0.482^***	−1.798^***
Agricultural labor resources × water-saving irrigation area	(0.247)	(0.163)	(0.352)
控制变量 Control variable	已控制 Controlled	已控制 Controlled	已控制 Controlled
时间效应 Time effect	已控制 Controlled	已控制 Controlled	已控制 Controlled
地区效应 Regional effect	已控制 Controlled	已控制 Controlled	已控制 Controlled
常数项 Constant term	3495^***(619.4)	−299.4 (513.5)	6460^***(938.2)

观测值 Observations	336	294	406
R²	0.989	0.996	0.979
*、和分别表示在P<1%、P<5%和P<10%水平显著。表中数据为回归结果, 括号内数值为回归结果的标准误。, and * represent the significance in the levels of P<1%, P<5% and P<10%, respectively. Data in the table are the regression results, and values in parentheses are the standard errors for the regression results.

下载: 导出CSV

表 4 现代节水措施对不同粮食作物的影响及农业劳动力资源调节效应回归结果

Table 4. Regression results of the effects of modern water-saving irrigation measures on different food crops and the adjustment effect of agricultural labor resources

变量名称 Variable name	粮食作物播种面积 Grain sown area	水稻播种面积 Rice sown area	小麦播种面积 Wheat sown area	玉米播种面积 Corn sown area
变量名称 Variable name	模型9 Model 9	模型10 Model 10	模型11 Model 11	模型12 Model 12
现代节水措施灌溉面积	1.417^***	0.00823	0.299^***	1.207^***
Modern water-saving irrigation area	(0.138)	(0.106)	(0.066)	(0.132)
农业劳动力资源	−513.7	−526.8	−977.3^***	−226.9
Agricultural labor resources	(598.3)	(381.5)	(355.4)	(570.0)
农业劳动力资源×现代节水措施灌溉面积	−2.861^***	0.808^**	−0.318^*	−2.661^***
Agricultural labor resources × modern water-saving irrigation area	(0.399)	(0.407)	(0.184)	(0.380)
控制变量 Control variable	已控制 Controlled	已控制 Controlled	已控制 Controlled	已控制 Controlled
时间效应 Time effect	已控制 Controlled	已控制 Controlled	已控制 Controlled	已控制 Controlled
地区效应 Regional effect	已控制 Controlled	已控制 Controlled	已控制 Controlled	已控制 Controlled
常数项 Constant term	7157^***	2181^***	−1160^**	5815^***
	(917.4)	(702.3)	(502.0)	(874.0)
观测值 Observations	406	336	294	406
R²	0.995	0.989	0.996	0.982
*、和分别表示在P<1%、P<5%和P<10%水平上显著。表中数据为回归结果, 括号内数值为回归结果的标准误。, and * represent the significance in the levels of P<1%, P<5% and P<10%, respectively. Data in the table are the regression results, and values in parentheses are the standard errors for the regression results.

下载: 导出CSV

表 5 传统节水措施对不同粮食作物的影响及农业劳动力资源调节效应回归结果

Table 5. Regression results of the effects of traditional water-saving irrigation measures on sown areas of different grain crops and the adjustment effect of agricultural labor resources

变量名称 Variable name	粮食作物播种面积 Grain sown area	水稻播种面积 Rice sown area	小麦播种面积 Wheat sown area	玉米播种面积 Corn sown area
变量名称 Variable name	模型13 Model 13	模型14 Model 14	模型15 Model 15	模型16 Model 16
传统节水措施灌溉面积	−0.173	0.034	0.334^***	−0.192^**
Traditional water-saving irrigation area	(0.185)	(0.105)	(0.0791)	(0.0920)
农业劳动力资源	−1209^*	82.20	−813.9^**	−447.2
Agricultural labor resources	(693.9)	(383.4)	(368.0)	(345.8)
农业劳动力资源×传统节水措施灌溉面积	−0.766	−1.023^***	−1.186^***	0.0317
Agricultural labor resources × traditional water-saving irrigation area	(0.490)	(0.328)	(0.212)	(0.244)
控制变量 Control variable	已控制 Controlled	已控制 Controlled	已控制 Controlled	已控制 Controlled
时间效应 Time effect	已控制 Controlled	已控制 Controlled	已控制 Controlled	已控制 Controlled
地区效应 Regional effect	已控制 Controlled	已控制 Controlled	已控制 Controlled	已控制 Controlled
常数项 Constant term	6856^***	1871^***	−1106^**	3261^***
	(1118)	(650.3)	(555.6)	(557.3)
观测值 Observations	406	336	294	406
R²	0.994	0.990	0.996	0.990
*、和分别表示在P<1%、P<5%和P<10%水平上显著。表中数据为回归结果, 括号内数值为回归结果的标准误。, and * represent the significance in the levels of P<1%, P<5% and P<10%, respectively. Data in the table are the regression results, and values in parentheses are the standard errors for the regression results.

下载: 导出CSV

参考文献(46)

[1]	赵军. 关于实施乡村振兴战略的几点思考[J]. 中国生态农业学报(中英文), 2019, 27(2): 187−189 ZHAO J. Several thoughts on implementing the strategy of rural areas revitalization[J]. Chinese Journal of Eco-Agriculture, 2019, 27(2): 187−189
[2]	程国强, 朱满德. 新冠肺炎疫情冲击粮食安全: 趋势、影响与应对[J]. 中国农村经济, 2020(5): 13−20 CHENG G Q, ZHU M D. COVID-19 pandemic is affecting food security: trends, impacts and recommendations[J]. Chinese Rural Economy, 2020(5): 13−20
[3]	要家威, 齐永青, 李怀辉, 等. 地下滴灌量与滴灌带间距对夏玉米生长发育的影响[J]. 中国生态农业学报(中英文), 2021, 29(9): 1502−1511 YAO J W, QI Y Q, LI H H, et al. Effects of the irrigation quota and drip irrigation pipes spacing on growth and development of summer maize with subsurface drip irrigation[J]. Chinese Journal of Eco-Agriculture, 2021, 29(9): 1502−1511
[4]	栾健, 韩一军. 农田灌溉设施的全要素生产率增长效应[J]. 华南农业大学学报: 社会科学版, 2020, 19(3): 84−93 LUAN J, HAN Y J. Effects of farmland irrigation infrastructures on the improvement of TFP[J]. Journal of South China Agricultural University: Social Science Edition, 2020, 19(3): 84−93
[5]	贾蕊, 陆迁. 不同灌溉技术条件下信贷约束对农户生产效率的影响−以甘肃张掖为例[J]. 资源科学, 2017, 39(4): 756−765 JIA R, LU Q. The effects of credit constraints on peasant household production efficiency under different irrigation technologies in Zhangye, Gansu[J]. Resources Science, 2017, 39(4): 756−765
[6]	金雪, 韩晓燕, 吕杰. 节水灌溉产量贡献及要素利用效率研究[J]. 农业技术经济, 2017(5): 37−45 JIN X, HAN X Y, LYU J. Research on the contribution of water-saving irrigation output and the utilization efficiency of elements[J]. Journal of Agrotechnical Economics, 2017(5): 37−45
[7]	郭健, 李谷成, 李欠男. 劳动力成本上升对中国主要农作物种植结构的影响−基于1998—2014年的省级面板数据[J]. 湖南农业大学学报: 社会科学版, 2017, 18(4): 44−50 GUO J, LI G C, LI Q N. Impact of the labor cost increase on the structure of main crops in China: Based on the Chinese provincial panel data from 1998 to 2014[J]. Journal of Hunan Agricultural University: Social Sciences, 2017, 18(4): 44−50
[8]	吴清华, 李谷成, 周晓时, 等. 基础设施、农业区位与种植业结构调整−基于1995—2013年省际面板数据的实证[J]. 农业技术经济, 2015(3): 25−32 WU Q H, LI G C, ZHOU X S, et al. Infrastructure, agricultural location and planting industry structure: based on the provincial panel data from 1995 to 2013[J]. Journal of Agrotechnical Economics, 2015(3): 25−32
[9]	魏君英, 韩丽艳. 农村人口结构变化对农作物种植结构的影响−基于中国粮食主产区面板数据的全面FGSL估计[J]. 农村经济, 2019(3): 55−63 WEI J Y, HAN L Y. The impact of changes in rural population structure on crop planting structure: a comprehensive FGSL estimation based on panel data of China’s main grain producing areas[J]. Rural Economy, 2019(3): 55−63
[10]	宋健峰, 王玉宝, 吴普特. 灌溉用水反弹效应研究综述[J]. 水科学进展, 2017, 28(3): 452−461 SONG J F, WANG Y B, WU P T. A reviews on irrigation water rebound effect[J]. Advances in Water Science, 2017, 28(3): 452−461
[11]	梁书民, 孟哲, 白石. 基于村级调查的中国农业种植结构变化研究[J]. 农业经济问题, 2008, 29(S1): 26−31 LIANG S M, MENG Z, BAI S. Research on the change of agricultural planting structure in China based on village survey[J]. Issues in Agricultural Economy, 2008, 29(S1): 26−31
[12]	马培衢. 关于农业基础建设制度变迁内在机理的制度分析−基于徐闻县的案例调查[J]. 中国农村观察, 2009(1): 33−42, 94 MA P Q. A case survey on inherent mechanism of agricultural infrastructure construction institution change[J]. China Rural Survey, 2009(1): 33−42, 94
[13]	王哲, 陈煜. 技术进步一定会带来一个区域农业用水总量下降吗−基于河北省面板数据实证分析[J]. 农业技术经济, 2020(6): 81−89 WANG Z, CHEN Y. Will technological progress lead to a decline in agricultural water use? — An empirical study based on panel data of Hebei Province[J]. Journal of Agrotechnical Economics, 2020(6): 81−89
[14]	张贝倍, 王善高, 周应恒. 新形势下水稻价格下降对农户生产决策的影响−基于种植结构、品质调整、要素投入的视角[J]. 世界农业, 2020(3): 72−81 ZHANG B B, WANG S G, ZHOU Y H. The effect of rice price on farmers’ production decisions—Based on planting structure, quality adjustment, and factor input[J]. World Agriculture, 2020(3): 72−81
[15]	李玉勤. 杂粮种植农户生产行为分析−以山西省谷子种植农户为例[J]. 农业技术经济, 2010(12): 44−53 LI Y Q. Analysis on the production behavior of farmers growing miscellaneous cereals — Taking millet farmers in Shanxi Province as an example[J]. Journal of Agrotechnical Economics, 2010(12): 44−53
[16]	李雪, 袁青青, 韩一军. 价格支持政策对粮食种植面积的影响机理分析−以小麦省级面板数据为例[J]. 中国农业资源与区划, 2019, 40(1): 89−96 LI X, YUAN Q Q, HAN Y J. Analysis on the influence mechanism of price support policies on grain planting area in China — Based on wheat provincial-level panel data[J]. Chinese Journal of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning, 2019, 40(1): 89−96
[17]	李祎君, 王春乙. 气候变化对我国农作物种植结构的影响[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2010, 6(2): 123−129 LI Y J, WANG C Y. Impacts of climate change on crop planting structure in China[J]. Advances in Climate Change Research, 2010, 6(2): 123−129
[18]	LEI Y D, WANG J A, YUE Y J, et al. How adjustments in land use patterns contribute to drought risk adaptation in a changing climate — A case study in China[J]. Land Use Policy, 2014, 36: 577−584 doi: 10.1016/j.landusepol.2013.10.004
[19]	CUI X M. Climate change and adaptation in agriculture: Evidence from US cropping patterns[J]. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 2020, 101: 102306 doi: 10.1016/j.jeem.2020.102306
[20]	JACOBY H G. Access to markets and the benefits of rural roads[J]. The Economic Journal, 2000, 110(465): 713−737 doi: 10.1111/1468-0297.00562
[21]	JI Y Q, YU X H, ZHONG F N. Machinery investment decision and off-farm employment in rural China[J]. China Economic Review, 2012, 23(1): 71−80 doi: 10.1016/j.chieco.2011.08.001
[22]	仇童伟, 罗必良. 种植结构“趋粮化”的动因何在? −基于农地产权与要素配置的作用机理及实证研究[J]. 中国农村经济, 2018(2): 65−80 QIU T W, LUO B L. What leads to a “tendency to plant grains” in agricultural planting structure? An empirical analysis based on the impact factors of land property rights and factors allocation[J]. Chinese Rural Economy, 2018(2): 65−80
[23]	罗必良, 仇童伟. 中国农业种植结构调整: “非粮化”抑或“趋粮化”[J]. 社会科学战线, 2018(2): 39−51, 2 LUO B L, QIU T W. China’s agricultural planting structure adjustment: “Non-grain” or “Grain-oriented”[J]. Social Science Front, 2018(2): 39−51, 2
[24]	钟甫宁, 陆五一, 徐志刚. 农村劳动力外出务工不利于粮食生产吗? −对农户要素替代与种植结构调整行为及约束条件的解析[J]. 中国农村经济, 2016(7): 36−47 ZHONG F N, LU W Y, XU Z G. Is it not good for the rural labor force to go out to work for food production? — Analysis of the behaviors and constraints of the replacement of farm household factors and the adjustment of planting structure[J]. Chinese Rural Economy, 2016(7): 36−47
[25]	黄玛兰, 李晓云. 农业劳动力价格上涨对农作物种植结构变化的省际差异性影响[J]. 经济地理, 2019, 39(6): 172−182 HUANG M L, LI X Y. The impacts of rural labor price rising on crop structure among provinces[J]. Economic Geography, 2019, 39(6): 172−182
[26]	李士梅, 尹希文. 中国农村劳动力转移对农业全要素生产率的影响分析[J]. 农业技术经济, 2017(9): 4−13 LI S M, YIN X W. Analysis on the impact of China’s rural labor force transfer on agricultural total factor productivity[J]. Journal of Agrotechnical Economics, 2017(9): 4−13
[27]	夏金梅, 孔祥利. 1921—2021年: 我国农业劳动力城乡流动的嬗变、导向与双向互动[J]. 经济问题, 2021(6): 9−15 XIA J M, KONG X L. The evolution, orientation and two-way interaction of rural and urban mobility of agricultural labor force in China[J]. On Economic Problems, 2021(6): 9−15
[28]	齐明珠. 中国农村劳动力转移对经济增长贡献的量化研究[J]. 中国人口·资源与环境, 2014, 24(4): 127−135 doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1002-2104.2014.04.017 QI M Z. Economic impact of rural to urban labor migration in China from 1991 to 2011[J]. China Population, Resources and Environment, 2014, 24(4): 127−135 doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1002-2104.2014.04.017
[29]	彭代彦, 文乐. 农村劳动力老龄化、女性化降低了粮食生产效率吗−基于随机前沿的南北方比较分析[J]. 农业技术经济, 2016(2): 32−44 PENG D Y, WEN L. Does the aging and feminization of the rural labor force reduce the efficiency of food production? — Comparative analysis of the North and the South based on the stochastic frontier[J]. Journal of Agrotechnical Economics, 2016(2): 32−44
[30]	张艳华. 农村劳动力转移的关联效应与有效治理[J]. 改革, 2016(8): 54−63 ZHANG Y H. The correlation effect and effective governance of rural labor force transfer[J]. Reform, 2016(8): 54−63
[31]	常明. 农户兼业行为影响灌溉效率吗?−基于CFPS的微观证据[J]. 农林经济管理学报, 2020, 19(6): 681−689 CHANG M. Can farmers’ concurrent business behavior affect irrigation efficiency? A study based on microscopic evidence from CFPS[J]. Journal of Agro-Forestry Economics and Management, 2020, 19(6): 681−689
[32]	(俄)А. 恰亚诺夫(А. Чаянов). 萧正洪译. 农民经济组织[M]. 北京: 中央编译出版社, 1996 Чаянов А. Организация крестьянского хозяйства[M]. Beijing: Cnetral Compilation & Translation Press, 1996
[33]	周立. 农村金融市场四大问题及其演化逻辑[J]. 财贸经济, 2007(2): 56−63, 128 ZHOU L. Four key issues of rural financial market and its evolution process[J]. Finance & Trade Economics, 2007(2): 56−63, 128
[34]	陈巧敏, 李斯华, 王利民, 等. 主要农作物生产全程机械化水平评价研究[J]. 农机化研究, 2017, 39(1): 1−5, 31 doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1003-188X.2017.01.001 CHEN Q M, LI S H, WANG L M, et al. Study on the quality evaluation of main crop production mechanization in China[J]. Journal of Agricultural Mechanization Research, 2017, 39(1): 1−5, 31 doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1003-188X.2017.01.001
[35]	段培, 王礼力, 陈绳栋, 等. 粮食种植户生产环节外包选择行为分析[J]. 西北农林科技大学学报: 社会科学版, 2017, 17(5): 65−72 DUAN P, WANG L L, CHEN S D, et al. Farmers’ selection behavior in process of grain production stage outsourcing[J]. Journal of Northwest A& F University: Social Science Edition, 2017, 17(5): 65−72
[36]	周娟. 土地流转背景下农业社会化服务体系的重构与小农的困境[J]. 南京农业大学学报: 社会科学版, 2017, 17(6): 141−151, 166 ZHOU J. The dual division of agricultural socialization service and its consequences under the background of land circulation[J]. Journal of Nanjing Agricultural University: Social Sciences Edition, 2017, 17(6): 141−151, 166
[37]	BLANKE A, ROZELLE S, LOHMAR B, et al. Water saving technology and saving water in China[J]. Agricultural Water Management, 2007, 87(2): 139−150 doi: 10.1016/j.agwat.2006.06.025
[38]	杨进, 钟甫宁, 陈志钢, 等. 农村劳动力价格、人口结构变化对粮食种植结构的影响[J]. 管理世界, 2016, 268(1): 78−87 YANG J, ZHONG F N, CHEN Z G, et al. The impact of rural labor price and population structure change on grain planting structure[J]. Journal of Management World, 2016, 268(1): 78−87
[39]	许玲玲, 杨筝, 刘放. 高新技术企业认定、税收优惠与企业技术创新−市场化水平的调节作用[J]. 管理评论, 2021, 33(2): 130−141 XU L L, YANG Z, LIU F. Identification of high-tech enterprises, tax incentives and companies’ technology innovation: the moderating role of marketization level[J]. Management Review, 2021, 33(2): 130−141
[40]	许朗, 刘金金. 农户节水灌溉技术选择行为的影响因素分析——基于山东省蒙阴县的调查数据[J]. 中国农村观察, 2013(6): 45–51, 93 XU L, LIU J J. Study on influencing factors of farmers choice behavior for water-saving irrigation techniques — based on survey data from Mengyin, Shandong Province[J]. China Rural Survey, 2013(6): 45–51, 93
[41]	王颂吉, 白永秀. 城乡要素错配与中国二元经济结构转化滞后: 理论与实证研究[J]. 中国工业经济, 2013(7): 31−43 WANG S J, BAI Y X. Resource misallocation between urban and rural department and China’s dual economy transformation hysteretic: theory and empirical research[J]. China Industrial Economics, 2013(7): 31−43
[42]	朱满德, 张梦瑶, 刘超. 农业机械化驱动了种植结构“趋粮化”吗[J]. 世界农业, 2021(2): 27−34, 44 ZHU M D, ZHANG M Y, LIU C. Does agricultural mechanization drive the “grain-oriented” planting structure?[J]. World Agriculture, 2021(2): 27−34, 44
[43]	李谷成, 李烨阳, 周晓时. 农业机械化、劳动力转移与农民收入增长−孰因孰果?[J]. 中国农村经济, 2018(11): 112−127 LI G C, LI Y Y, ZHOU X S. Agricultural mechanization, labor transfer and the growth of farmer’s income: a re-examination of causality[J]. Chinese Rural Economy, 2018(11): 112−127
[44]	蒋和平. 粮食政策实施及其效应波及: 2013—2017年[J]. 改革, 2018(2): 64−74 JIANG H P. The implementation of grain policy and its involving effect from 2013 to 2017[J]. Reform, 2018(2): 64−74
[45]	檀竹平, 洪炜杰, 罗必良. 农业劳动力转移与种植结构“趋粮化”[J]. 改革, 2019(7): 111−118 TAN Z P, HONG W J, LUO B L. The transfer effect of agricultural labor force and grain-oriented planting structure[J]. Reform, 2019(7): 111−118
[46]	李丰. 稻农节水灌溉技术采用行为分析−以干湿交替灌溉技术(AWD)为例[J]. 农业技术经济, 2015(11): 53−61 LI F. Behavior analysis of water-saving irrigation technology adopted by rice farmers-take alternate dry-wet irrigation technology (AWD) as an example[J]. Journal of Agrotechnical Economics, 2015(11): 53−61