ENSO events impacts on apple production in Shandong Ⅱ: Changes in agricultural meteorological disasters under different ENSO scenarios and their impacts on apple yield
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摘要: 苹果作为山东优势果品之一, 其生产受农业气象灾害影响较大。探究厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(ENSO)事件下山东农业气象灾害演变规律及其对山东苹果产量的影响, 对指导当地苹果生产具有重大意义。本文基于山东1991—2019年逐日气象观测数据、地市级苹果种植统计数据及ENSO事件数据, 利用数理统计分析和ArcGIS空间表达, 得出以下结论: 1) 1991—2019年不同ESNO年型下农业气象灾害发生情况区域差异显著。6—8月果实膨大期厄尔尼诺年干旱灾害发生较为频繁, 共计78次, 干旱频率最高约50%; 中性年雨涝灾害较为严重, 高达60次。鲁西、鲁中等热量资源充足地区, 干旱发生较为频繁; 鲁南降水资源较为充沛地区, 雨涝灾害发生频繁。鲁东、胶东半岛等地3—5月苹果花期极端低温灾害发生较为频繁, 发生日数约7~9 d·a−1, 频率约为60%—100%。鲁西等地是6—8月苹果果实膨大期高温热害的高发区, 发生天数11~15 d·a−1。2)不同ESNO年型下, 干旱与厄尔尼诺年呈正相关, 与拉尼娜年呈负相关。3—10月苹果可生长期厄尔尼诺年南方涛动指数与雨涝呈正相关, 拉尼娜年、中性年南方涛动指数与雨涝呈负相关。3—5月苹果花期低温灾害与厄尔尼诺年南方涛动指数呈负相关; 与拉尼娜年、中性年南方涛动指数呈正相关。3) 3—10月苹果可生长期, 厄尔尼诺年, 胶东半岛地区干旱加剧, 导致苹果减产率上升; 中性年, 雨涝灾害使得苹果减产减收的影响加重。6—8月苹果果实膨大期, 拉尼娜年、中性年, 鲁西地区干旱与苹果减产率呈正相关; 中性年, 山东大部分地区雨涝与苹果减产率呈正相关。厄尔尼诺年苹果减产率受极端低温灾害影响较小, 高温热害影响较大; 拉尼娜年、中性年山东大部分地区低温冷害、冻害天数增加, 导致苹果减产率上升, 风险加大。苹果生产中谨防厄尔尼诺年高温、干旱, 拉尼娜年、中性年应预防低温、雨涝灾害对苹果产量、品质的损害, 确保苹果产业健康可持续的生产。Abstract: Apple is one of the dominant fruits in Shandong Province, and its production is profoundly affected by agricultural meteorological disasters. Exploring the evolutionary characteristics of agrometeorological disasters and their influence on local apple production under extreme climate events is of great significance. In this study, based on daily meteorological data, prefectural and municipal apple production statistical data, and monthly ENSO event data from 1991 to 2019 in Shandong, we analyzed the objectives of the study using mathematical statistical analysis and ArcGIS spatial expression. First, the results showed significant regional differences in agrometeorological disasters under different ENSO years from 1991 to 2019. During the period of fruit expansion from June to August, droughts occurred frequently during El Niño years (78 times), and the highest drought frequency was approximately 50%. In neutral years, flooding disasters were relatively serious, occurring up to 60 times. Drought frequently occurred in areas with sufficient heat resources, such as in West and Central Shandong. Rainfall and waterlogging disasters frequently occurred in areas with abundant rainfall resources in South Shandong. In East Shandong and the Jiaodong Peninsula, extreme low-temperature disasters occurred frequently during the apple flowering period from March to May. The number of low-temperature days was approximately 7–9 d·a−1, with a frequency of approximately 60%–100%. In West Shandong and other places, high-temperature heat disasters occurred during the apple fruit expansion period from June to August, with occurrence days of 11–15 d·a−1. Second, the study showed that, under different ESNO events, drought was positively correlated with El Niño years, whereas it was negatively correlated with La Niña years. During the apple growth period from March to October, there was a positive correlation between the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and rainfall during El Niño years, while there was a negative correlation between the SOI and rain waterlogging during La Niña and neutral years. Low-temperature disasters were negatively correlated with the SOI in El Niño years, while they were positively correlated with the SOI in La Niña and neutral years during the apple flowering period from March to May. Third, from March to October, the drought in the Jiaodong Peninsula intensified, leading to an increase in the apple yield reduction rate in El Niño years. Furthermore, the impact of rain and waterlogging on apple yield and income was aggravated in neutral years. In La Niña years and neutral years, drought in West Shandong was positively correlated with apple yield reduction rate. Meanwhile, in neutral years, the rainfall in most areas of Shandong was positively related to the reduction rate of apple yield during the apple expansion period from June to August. In El Niño years, the reduction rate of apple yield was less affected by extreme low-temperature disasters but more affected by high-temperature heat damage. The number of days of low temperature increased in most areas of Shandong during La Niña and neutral years, which led to a reduction in the rates of apple yield and risk increase. Owing to the high temperature and drought in the ENSO event, we should prevent the effects of low temperature, rain, and waterlogging on apple yield and quality and ensure the healthy and sustainable production of the apple industry.
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Key words:
- Apple yield /
- Shandong /
- ENSO events /
- Drought and flood disaster /
- Extreme temperature
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图 1 研究区域及气象站点分布图
Figure 1. Location of the study area and the distribution of meteorological stations
图 2 不同厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(ENSO)事件年型山东6—8月降水距平百分率及旱涝等级(1991—2019年)
Figure 2. Percentage of precipitation anomalies and grade of droughts and floods from June to August under different El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) years in Shandong (1991−2019)
图 3 不同厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(ENSO)事件年型山东6—8月旱涝频率分布
Figure 3. Frequency of drought and flood from June to August under different El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) years in Shandong
图 4 1991—2019年不同厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(ENSO)事件年型下山东6—8月旱涝灾害站次比
Figure 4. Stations ratio of drought and flood from June to August under different El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) years in Shandong (1991–2019)
图 5 1991—2019年不同厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(ENSO)事件年型下低温冷害(−2 ℃<极端低温≤0 ℃)发生日数、> 3 d低温冷害频率空间分布
Figure 5. Spatial distribution of occurrence days of cold injury (−2 ℃ < extreme low temperature≤ 0 ℃) and frequency of cold injury lasting for more than 3 days under different El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) years during 1991−2019
图 6 1991—2019年不同厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(ENSO)事件年型下低温冻害(极端低温≤−2 ℃)发生日数、>3 d低温冻害频率空间分布
Figure 6. Spatial distribution of low temperature freezing injury (extreme low temperature ≤ −2 ℃) days and frequency of low temperature freezing injury lasting for more than 3 days under different El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) years during 1991−2019
图 7 1991—2019年不同厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(ENSO)事件年型下高温热害(极端高温≥35 ℃)发生日数空间、> 3 d高温热害频率分布
Figure 7. Spatial distribution of occurrence days of high temperature (extereme high temperature ≥35 ℃) and frequency of high temperature lasting for more than 3 days under different El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) years during 1991−2019
图 8 1991—2019年不同厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(ENSO)事件年型下旱涝灾害(A: 3—10月干旱; B: 3—10月雨涝; C: 6—8月干旱; D: 6—8月雨涝)与ENSO事件南方涛动指数相关性的空间分布
Figure 8. Spatial distribution of correlation between drought and flood disasters (A: drought from March to October; B: flood from March to October; C: drought from June to August; D: flood from June to August) and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events in different ENSO years from 1991 to 2019
图 9 1991—2019年不同厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(ENSO)事件年型下低温冷害(A)和低温冻害(B)与ENSO事件相关性的空间分布
Figure 9. Spatial distribution of correlation between chilling damage (A), low temperature freezing injury (B) and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events in different ENSO years from 1991 to 2019
图 10 1991—2019年不同厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(ENSO)事件年型下高温热害与ENSO事件相关性的空间分布
Figure 10. Spatial distribution of correlation between high temperature heat damage and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events under different ENSO years during 1991−2019
图 11 1991—2019年不同厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(ENSO)事件年型下旱涝灾害(降水距平百分率)与苹果减产率相关性的空间分布(A: 3—10月干旱; B: 3—10月雨涝; C: 6—8月干旱; D: 6—8月雨涝)
Figure 11. Spatial distribution of correlation between drought and flood disasters (percentage of precipitation anomaly) and apple yield reduction rate under different El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) years during 1991−2019 (A: drought from March to October; B: flood from March to October; C: drought from June to August; D: flood from June to August)
图 12 1991—2019年不同厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(ENSO)事件年型下低温冷害(A)和低温冻害(B)与苹果减产率相关性的空间分布
Figure 12. Spatial distribution of correlation between chilling damage (A), low termperature freezing injury (B) and apple yield reduction rate under different El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) years during 1991−2019
图 13 1991—2019年不同厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(ENSO)事件年型下高温热害与苹果减产率相关性的空间分布
Figure 13. Spatial distribution of correlation between high temperature and apple yield reduction rate under different El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) years during 1991−2019
表 1 1991—2019年厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(ENSO)事件不同年型的统计[20-21]
Table 1. Classification of different El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events from 1991 to 2019
ENSO 年份 Year 总计 Total (a) 厄尔尼诺年 El Niño year 1991, 1992, 1993, 1994, 1997, 2002, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2009, 2014, 2015, 2016 13 中性年 Neutral year 1996, 1998, 2001, 2003, 2007, 2012, 2013, 2017, 2018 9 拉尼娜年 La Niña year 1995, 1999, 2000, 2008, 2010, 2011, 2019 7 
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表 2 根据降水距平百分率(Pa)划分旱涝等级
Table 2. Drought and flood grades according to the percentage of precipitation anomaly (Pa)
等级 Level 季节 Season 年 Year 重涝 Heavy waterlogging Pa ≥ 80% Pa ≥ 45% 大涝 Flooding 80% > Pa ≥ 50% 45% > Pa ≥ 30% 偏涝 Partial waterlogging 50% > Pa> 25% 30% > Pa> 15% 正常 Normal 25% ≥ Pa ≥ −25% 15% ≥ Pa ≥ −15% 偏旱 Partial drought −25% > Pa> −50% −15% > Pa> −30% 大旱 Drought −50% ≥ Pa> −80% −30% ≥ Pa> −45% 重旱 Heavy drought −80% ≥ Pa −45% ≥ Pa
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表 3 以旱涝站次比(Pj)划分区域灾害影响范围
Table 3. Influence area of regional disasters by the stations ratio of drought or flooding (Pj)
旱涝站次比 Drought/flooding station ratio 影响范围 Affected region Pj≥70% 全域性干旱(雨涝) Drought (flooding) in the whole region 70%>Pj≥50% 区域性干旱(雨涝) Regional drought (flooding) 50%>Pj≥30% 部分地区干旱(雨涝) Drought (flooding) in the most part of the study region 30%>Pj≥10% 局部地区干旱(雨涝) Drought (flooding) in the local region Pj<10% 全域无明显干旱(雨涝)发生 Not occurred drought (flooding)
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表 4 山东苹果极端温度指标
Table 4. Extreme temperature indexes of apple in Shandong
灾害类型
Disaster category研究时段
Research period灾害种类
Disaster type指标
Indicator极端低温
Extreme low temperature (tmin)3—5月苹果开花期 Apple flowering period from March to May 低温冷害
Chilling damage−2 ℃<$ {t}_{{\rm{min}}} $≤0 ℃ 低温冻害
Low temperature freezing$ {t}_{{\rm{min}}} $≤−2 ℃ 极端高温
Extreme heat (tmax)6—8月果实膨大期
Apple fruit enlargement period from June to August高温热害
High temperature$ {t}_{{\rm{max}}} $≥35 ℃
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