李源, 李田慧, 梁金水, 李发祥, 刘长发. 辽宁省海洋渔业碳收支及驱动因素分析[J]. 中国生态农业学报 (中英文), 2023, 31(2): 253−264. DOI: 10.12357/cjea.20220542
引用本文: 李源, 李田慧, 梁金水, 李发祥, 刘长发. 辽宁省海洋渔业碳收支及驱动因素分析[J]. 中国生态农业学报 (中英文), 2023, 31(2): 253−264. DOI: 10.12357/cjea.20220542
LI Y, LI T H, LIANG J S, LI F X, LIU C F. Carbon budget and driving factors in marine fisheries in Liaoning Province, China[J]. Chinese Journal of Eco-Agriculture, 2023, 31(2): 253−264. DOI: 10.12357/cjea.20220542
Citation: LI Y, LI T H, LIANG J S, LI F X, LIU C F. Carbon budget and driving factors in marine fisheries in Liaoning Province, China[J]. Chinese Journal of Eco-Agriculture, 2023, 31(2): 253−264. DOI: 10.12357/cjea.20220542

辽宁省海洋渔业碳收支及驱动因素分析

Carbon budget and driving factors in marine fisheries in Liaoning Province, China

  • 摘要: 海洋渔业碳汇是海洋碳汇的主要组成部分, 是实现海洋碳增汇的有效途径之一。在碳达峰与碳中和背景下, 海洋渔业兼具“碳源”与“碳汇”的双重属性。利用《中国渔业统计年鉴》《国内机动渔船油价补助用油量测算参考标准》和《中国统计年鉴》数据, 计算了2006—2020年辽宁省渔业净碳汇量和渔业碳汇价值量; 运用时间序列三次指数平滑模型, 预测2021—2030年渔业碳汇量和渔业碳汇价值量; 基于灰色关联模型分析了辽宁省海洋渔业碳源碳汇量变化及其价值量变化的主要驱动要素。结果表明: 2006—2020年辽宁省海洋渔业碳汇收支盈余态势逐年减少, 海洋渔业碳汇赤字情况逐年加剧, 海洋渔业碳源碳汇最大顺差为256.36万t, 最大逆差29.99万t, 其平均差额为116.66万t·a−1。其中, 海洋捕捞鱼类碳汇总量3976.04万t, 但自2016年起急剧下降, 并呈持续下降趋势; 贝藻类碳汇总量241.67万t, 养殖占83%, 变化不大; 海洋捕捞碳排放量为164.52万t·a−1, 其中拖网捕捞渔业占比近50%。2017年后海洋捕捞碳汇量不能补偿碳排放量。辽宁省海洋渔业碳汇价值总量274.23亿元, 年均18.28亿元。辽宁省渔业碳汇总量和渔业碳汇价值总量持续下降, 碳汇价值量与碳汇量呈正相关。海洋渔业碳汇量与海洋捕捞渔获物产量、养殖贝藻类产量呈正相关。基于时间序列预测模型分析显示, 2020—2030年辽宁省海洋渔业碳汇赤字将持续加剧, 海洋渔业碳汇量逐年降低。辽宁省海洋渔业碳汇受国家政策、捕捞渔获物产量、从业人员数量、贝藻类养殖面积和海洋捕捞渔船总功率等因素影响。辽宁省海洋渔业碳源排放量受海洋捕捞渔船总功率、渔业专业户数量和技术推广机构数量影响明显。建议多种养殖方式深度融合, 减少高能耗、低产量捕捞作业方式, 保护海洋生物多样性, 并加强高排放渔船监管, 以促进辽宁省海洋渔业发展。

     

    Abstract: Marine fisheries are valuable oceanic carbon sinks that store and sequester carbon. They act as both “carbon sources” and “carbon sinks”, and this is particularly important to achieve the established carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals. The amount of carbon sequestered by fisheries and its economic value in Liaoning Province from 2006 to 2020 were calculated based on the China Fisheries Statistical Yearbook, the Calculation Reference of Oil Consumption for Oil Price Subsidy of Domestic Fishing Vessels, and the China Statistical Yearbook. Then, a cubic exponential smoothing method was applied to a time-series forecasting model to predict the same parameters for 2021–2030, and the factors controlling the amount and economic value of carbon sequestered in fisheries in Liaoning Province were examined using gray correlation analysis. The results showed that 1) the surplus of income and expenditure for carbon sequestration in marine fisheries in the region decreased each year from 2006 to 2020, and the deficit is predicted to intensify in 2021–2030. 2) The maximum surplus of carbon (sequestration minus emissions) was 256.36×104 tons and the maximum deficit was 29.99×104 tons, with an average of 116.66×104 tons per year. 3) The total amount of carbon sequestered by shellfish and algae was 241.67×104 tons, 83% of which was attributed to the aquaculture industry, with little change. 4) The average amount of carbon emissions form marine fishing was 164.52×104 tons per year, almost 50% of which was attributed to trawling. The amount of carbon sequestered from marine fishing could not compensate for carbon emissions after 2017. 5) The total economic value of sequestered carbon of marine fisheries of Liaoning Province was 27.423 billion Yuan, with an annual average of 1.828 billion Yuan. 6) The total amount and economic value of carbon sequestered in marine fisheries continued to decline and were positively correlated. 7) The amount of sequestered carbon was also positively correlated with fishing yields, shellfish production, and macroalgal culture. The amount and economic value of carbon sequestered in marine fisheries in Liaoning Province were significantly influenced by national policies, fishing yield, number of employees, area of shellfish and macroalgal aquaculture sites, and the total power of fishing vessels (which determined the vessels’ carbon emissions). To protect marine biodiversity and promote the sustainable development of marine fisheries in the area, it is recommended to integrate multiple aquaculture systems, reduce high-energy-consuming fishing operations, and strengthen the monitoring of highly polluting fishing vessels.