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摘要: 东北地区是我国大豆主产区, 该地区深受气候变化影响。厘清气候变化背景下的农业气候资源、农业气象灾害和大豆气候种植适宜性变化对指导大豆生产和扩种具有重要意义。通过利用最新气候态(1991—2020年)与旧气候态(1981—2010年)的数据, 分析了农业气候资源、农业气象灾害和大豆种植气候适宜度的时空变化。结果发现: 1)内蒙古东部、黑龙江西南部和东北部、吉林中西部等地大豆生长季≥10 ℃活动积温增加26~65 ℃∙d, 局部地区增加66~182 ℃∙d; 1981—2020年东北大豆的种植区生长季积温大部呈上升趋势。大豆生长季降水和日照变化呈现空间差异。2)东北大部分地区大豆生长季霜冻害日数减少; 黑龙江大部和吉林西北部大豆生长季干旱天数减少, 吉林中东部和辽宁大部干旱天数增加。3)内蒙古东部、黑龙江西部、吉林西部、辽宁西部和东部大豆种植气候适宜度提高, 黑龙江中部和东部、吉林中部和东北部气候适宜度略下降。4)气象因子对大豆气候适宜度变化贡献率分析表明, 日照变化是大豆气候适宜度变化的主要因素, 其次是积温变化, 降水变化对大豆气候适宜度变化贡献率最小。最新气候态下东北大部分地区大豆种植气候条件变好, 可以充分利用温度资源, 适当调整播期和品种, 但从积温上升幅度看, 不宜采取过激的跨积温带盲目种植。Abstract: Northeast China is a major soybean production region that is profoundly influenced by climate change. It is important to identify how climate change influences agroclimatic resources, agro-meteorological disasters, and climatic suitability for soybean production and plant expansion. In this study, we evaluated the temporal and spatial changes in agroclimatic resources (accumulated temperature, precipitation, and sunshine hours at a rate of 80% climatic guarantee during soybean growing season), agro-meteorological disasters (drought and frost days), and soybean climatic suitability using two climate reference periods (1991−2020 and 1981−2010). Finally, the contribution rates of accumulated temperature, precipitation, and sunshine hours to soybean climatic suitability change were calculated using a statistical method. First, we found that a thermal time ≥ 10 ℃ during the soybean growing season increased by 26−65 ℃·d in the east of Inner Mongolia, southwest and northeast of Heilongjiang, and midwest of Jilin, and increased by 66−182 ℃·d in local regions. Additionally, a thermal time ≥ 10 ℃ during the soybean growing season exhibited an increasing trend from 1981 to 2020 in Northeast China. Moreover, the changes in precipitation and sunshine hours during the soybean growing season had the characteristics of spatial differentiation. Second, the number of frost days during the soybean growing season had decreased in the major region of Northeast China by 1–3 days and by 4–6 days in some local areas. Drought days declined in Heilongjiang and northwest of Jilin by 1–4 days and increased in mideast of Jilin and Liaoning by 1–6 days. Third, the climatic suitability of soybean planting has improved in the eastern Inner Mongolia, west of Heilongjiang and Jilin, and Liaoning, while it had dropped in the middle and east of Heilongjiang and the middle and northeast of Jilin. Finally, the change in sunshine hours was the foremost factor affecting soybean climatic suitability. The secondary factor was thermal time, whereas precipitation had the least contribution. The results indicate that the climatic conditions of soybean in 1991–2020 in Northeast China were more favorable than those in 1981–2010. Farmers in Northeast China adopted the sowing date and soybean cultivar to fully utilize the temperature resource. However, blindly growing soybeans across the accumulated temperate zone was not encouraged because of the increased extent of thermal time.
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Key words:
- Soybean /
- Climate suitability /
- Climate change /
- Northeast China /
- Agroclimatic resources
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图 2 1991—2020年与1981—2010年80%保证率活动积温差值(a)和1981—2020年80%保证率活动积温时间趋势(b)
Figure 2. Difference of accumulated temperature in the rate of 80% climatic guarantee between 1991−2020 and 1981−2010 (a) and its temporal trend from 1981 to 2020 (b)
图 3 1991—2020年与1981—2010年80%保证率生育期降水差值(a)和1981—2020年80%保证率生育期降水时间趋势(b)
Figure 3. Difference of growing season precipitation in the rate of 80% climatic guarantee between 1991−2020 and 1981−2010 (a) and its temporal trend from 1981 to 2020 (b)
图 4 1991—2020年与1981—2010年80%保证率生育期日照时数(a) 和1981—2020年80%保证率生育期日照时数时间趋势(b)
Figure 4. The difference of growing season sunshine hours in the rate of 80% climatic guarantee between 1991−2020 and 1981−2010 (a) and its temporal trend from 1981 to 2020 (b)
图 5 1991—2020年与1981—2010年干旱日数差值(a)和霜冻日数差值(b)
Figure 5. Difference of drought days (a) and frost days (b) between 1991−2020 and 1981−2010
图 6 1991—2020年与1981—2010年大豆种植气候适宜度变化
Figure 6. Change of soybean climatic suitability between 1991−2020 and 1981−2010
图 7 生长季积温(a)、降水(b)、日照(c)对大豆适宜度变化的贡献率
Figure 7. Contribution rates of accumulated temperature (a), precipitation (b) and sunshine hours (c) in the growing season to the soybean climatic suitability
表 1 大豆不同发育期适宜度模型中的参数设置
Table 1. Parameters of suitability model in different phenological stages of soybean
发育期
Phenological stage参数 Parameter $ {T}_{i1} $ $ {T}_{i2} $ $ {T}_{i0} $ ${P}_{i\mathrm{l}}$ ${P}_{i\mathrm{h}}$ $ {S}_{i0} $ $ {b}_{i} $ 播种—出苗 Sowing−emergence 7.5 26.0 18.5 16.7 22.3 9.37 5.05 出苗—分枝 Emergence−branching 10.5 30.0 23.5 20.7 24.7 9.03 4.87 分枝—开花 Branching−anthesis 17.5 32.0 27.0 154.1 195.3 8.75 4.72 开花—鼓粒 Anthesis−pod filling 13.0 30.5 25.0 102.4 132.5 8.31 4.48 鼓粒—成熟 Pod filling−maturity 14.0 30.0 24.5 34.1 56.6 7.75 4.18 $ {T}_{i1} $为发育期i的下限温度, $ {T}_{i2} $为发育期i的上限温度, $ {T}_{i0} $为发育期i的最适温度, ${P}_{i\mathrm{l}}$为发育期i的下限需水量, ${P}_{i\mathrm{h}}$为发育期i的上限需水量, $ {S}_{i0} $为发育期i的最适日照时数, $ {b}_{i} $为发育期i的日照适宜度常数。$ {T}_{i1} $, $ {T}_{i2} $ and $ {T}_{i0} $ are the lower limit, upper limit and optimal temperature of phenology i, respectively. ${P}_{i\mathrm{l}}$ and ${P}_{i\mathrm{h}}$ are the lower and upper limit requirement water of phenology i. $ {S}_{i0} $ is the optimal sunshine hour of phenology i. $ {b}_{i} $ is the sunshine suitability constant of phenology i. 
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