Research progress of rural regional system carbon effect from the perspective of Dual Carbon
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摘要: 乡村是国土空间的重要组成部分, 乡村减排增汇是实现双碳目标的关键举措。乡村碳效应包括碳排放效应和碳汇效应,因核算范畴、方法、指标等不同, 各研究结果间差异较大, 尚未达成一致结论。本文基于人地关系地域系统理论构建乡村碳循环体系, 使用Meta分析方法综述乡村碳效应定量研究成果, 以期为形成乡村空间碳效应的系统认知提供参考。结果表明: 1)农业生产碳排放占乡村碳排放总量的20%, 作物种植和禽畜养殖碳排放分别占农业碳排放的30%和70%。少施1 t氮肥可减排9.526 t CO2, 相当于节约9555 kWh电, 可用于生产27 t大米; 减少1%的牛羊数量可减少4.48%的养殖业碳排放。2)乡村居民生活碳排放占乡村碳排放总量的80%, 其碳减排潜力高于农业生产; 燃煤占直接碳排放的80%, 若将1%煤炭消费替换为生物质能, 乡村生活将减排3624.8万t CO2, 节电3636 kWh。3)1990—2022年间, 我国乡村净碳汇呈增长态势, 乡村年均净碳汇50 025.8万t, 相当于节约7.36亿 t 标准煤, 123亿元固碳成本。建议增加新型长效肥料研发投资, 推广种养一体化生态农业模式, 加大低碳生活理念宣传力度, 推进乡村数字化能源系统建设, 以充分发挥乡村减排增汇潜力。Abstract: As an important constituent of national land space, rural carbon emission reduction and sink increase are crucial ways to achieve the dual carbon goal. Rural carbon effect involves carbon emission and carbon sink, and the estimation results vary widely between studies, with no consistent conclusion due to different accounting scopes, methods, indicators, and other factors. Firstly, this study constructs a rural carbon cycle system based on the human-earth system theory. Secondly, the Meta-Analysis method is used to integrate previous quantitative studies of rural carbon effects and estimate the overall effect size. Finally, it summarizes the influencing factors of rural carbon effect and puts forward suggestions for rural governance. This study aims to provide a reference for a quantitative cognition on the carbon effect of the rural regional system. The results show that: 1) Carbon emission from agricultural production accounts for 20% of the total rural carbon emission and 10.37% of the total average annual carbon emission in China, with 30% coming from crop cultivation and 70% from livestock farming. Fertilizer application plays a 58.23% role in crop cultivation carbon emission, while 67.40% of livestock farming carbon emission originates from animal enteric fermentation. Applying 1 t less nitrogen fertilizer can reduce carbon emission by 9.526 t CO2, which is equivalent to an electricity saving of 9 555 kWh and can be used to produce 27 t of rice, improving nitrogen use efficiency by 1% can conserve 375 000 t of raw coal, and reducing the number of cattle and sheep by 1% can reduce carbon emission from livestock farming by 4.48%. 2) About 80% of rural carbon emission come from the residential living, which has a higher carbon reduction potential than agricultural production. Nearly 65% of residential living carbon emission is indirectly generated, with housing construction accounting for about 45.32%. Coal burning contributes to 80% of direct carbon emission, and replacing coal consumption by 1% with biomass energy could reduce residential living carbon emission by 36,248,000 t CO2, corresponding to an electricity saving of 3635.7 kWh. Additionally, in the process of urbanization, the cost of eliminating the 91.54 million ton of increased carbon emission from the 1% rural-to-urban population would be at least 6.1 billion Yuan. 3) Between 1990 and 2022, the net carbon sink of rural in China assumes a growth trend, the average annual rural net carbon sink is 500 258 200 t·a-1, equivalent to saving 736 million tons standard coal and 12.3 billion Yuan in carbon sequestration costs. The net rural carbon emission in China has increased from 1990 to 2022, but the carbon sequestration potential of farmland protection cultivation has not been fully exploited at present. Increasing the rural environmental governance level by 2% using emerging technologies could reduce rural agricultural production carbon emission by 2%. Therefore, it is proposed to increase investment in research and development of new long-acting fertilizers, promote the ecological agriculture model that integrates planting and breeding, enhance efforts to publicize the low-carbon living concept, and advance the construction of rural digital energy system, thus the potential of rural emission reduction and sink increase can be given full utilized.
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表 1 中国乡村碳排放与碳汇相关文献的筛选结果
Table 1. Screening results of literatures concerning rural carbon emission and carbon sink in China
核算内容
Accounting content文献的作者, 出版时间
Author and publishing date of literature碳核算时期
Carbon accounting period节点年份数
Number of node years乡村农业生产碳排放
Carbon emission of rural agricultural production广义农业
(种植业和养殖业)
Generalized agriculture
(planting and breeding industry)田成诗等, 2021 TIAN C S, et al., 2021 2006—2016 3 江艳军等, 2019 JIANG Y J, et al., 2019 2008—2016 9 田云等, 2012 TIAN Y, et al., 2012 1995—2010 16 徐嘉琦, 2022 XU J Q, et al., 2022 2004—2020 17 韦沁, 2018 WEI Q,2018 1997—2015 19 张俊飚等, 2014 ZHANG J B, et al., 2014 2002—2011 4 狭义农业
(种植业)
Narrow agriculture
(planting industry)张颂心, 2021 ZHANG S X, et al., 2021 2000—2018 19 杨雪, 2022 YANG X,2022 2003—2020 18 黄晓慧等, 2022 HUANG X H, et al., 2022 2007—2019 13 贺青等, 2021 HE Q, et al., 2021 2003—2018 16 田云等, 2011 TIAN Y, et al., 2011 1993—2008 16 戴小文等, 2020 DAI X Y, et al., 2020 2007—2016 10 养殖业
Breeding industry田云等, 2012 TIAN Y, et al., 2012 1995—2010 16 陈瑶, 2016 CHEN Y,2016 2001—2013 13 姚成胜等, 2017 YAO C S, et al., 2017 2000—2014 15 胡向东等, 2010 HU X D, et al., 2010 2000—2007 8 张金鑫等, 2020 ZHANG J X, et al., 2020 1997—2017 21 苏旭峰等, 2022 SU X F, et al., 2022 2000—2018 19 乡村居民生活碳排放
Carbon emission of rural residential living朱琳, 2018 ZHU L,2018 2005—2014 10 黄芳等, 2013 HUANG F, et al., 2013 2000—2010 11 张咪咪, 2011 ZHANG M M,2011 1997—2007 11 凤振华等 ,2010 FENG Z H, et al., 2010 2005—2007 3 万文玉等, 2017 WANG W Y, et al., 2017 2001—2013 13 乡村农业碳汇
Carbon sink of rural agriculture曹执令等, 2022 CAO Z L, et al., 2022 2007—2022 14 陈罗烨等, 2016 CHEN L H, et al., 2016 1991—2011 21 田云等, 2015 TIAN Y, et al., 2015 2000—2012 4 张俊飚等, 2013 ZHANG J B, et al., 2013 1995—2010 16 李强等, 2022 LI Q, et al., 2022 2005—2020 16 李翠菊, 2012 LI C J,2012 1990—2010 21 表 2 化肥碳排放系数
Table 2. Fertilizers carbon emission factors
t(CE)∙t−1 化肥类型
Fertilizer type生产、运输、包装过程
Production, transportation and pack process使用过程
Utilization process总量
Gross来源
Source氮肥 Nitrogen fertilizer 7.759 1.767 9.526 [44-45] 磷肥 Phosphate fertilizer 2.332 0.733 3.065 [44-46] 钾肥 Potash fertilizer 0.660 0.550 1.210 [44-46] 对参考文献中的数据进行了单位换算, 统一为t(CE)∙t−1。数量关系为: CE=(12/44)×CO2, CE为碳当量。 The unit of data in the reference is converted to CE. The quantitative relationship is CE=(12/44)×CO2 and CE is carbon equivalent. 表 3 乡村居民生活碳排放的影响因素及其作用效果
Table 3. Influencing factors and their effects of rural residential living carbon emission
影响因素
Influencing factor可量化指标
Quantifiable index每提升1%所带来的碳排放变化
Change in carbon emission resulting from 1% uplift (%)来源
Source经济增长 Economic growth 乡村居民人均收入 Income per rural inhabitant 0.43 [52] 技术进步 Technological progress 能源利用效率 Energy efficiency −2.12 [53] 能源结构 Energy structure 煤炭消费占比 Coal consumption percentage 0.26 [54] 生物质能消费占比 Biomass energy consumption percentage −1.50 [55] 产业结构 Industrial structure 第一产业产值占比 Primary industry output percentage −1.99 [56] 人口规模 Population Size 乡村人口总数 Rural population −3.98 [52] 表 4 中国主要粮食作物年均碳汇量及碳投入价值
Table 4. Average annual carbon sink and carbon input value of major grain crops in China
作物
Crop固碳量
Carbon sequestration [t(C)∙hm−2∙a−1]大气CO2吸收量
Absorption of atmospheric CO2
[t(C)∙hm−2∙a−1]碳投入价值
Carbon input value
[¥∙hm−2∙a−1]来源
Source小麦 Wheat 3.62 13.28 245 [57–58] 玉米 Maize 3.98 14.58 162 [57–58] 水稻 Rice 4.32 15.83 254 [57–58] 1)大气CO2吸收量=单位面积作物固碳量×作物种植面积; 2)面积数据来源于《2021年中国统计年鉴》; 3)碳投入价值指作物种植耗能和化肥、农药等生产资料使用造成的碳排放量与碳价格的乘积。1) Atmospheric CO2 absorption = carbon sequestration per unit area multiplied by crop area; 2) Crops area data from China Statistical Yearbook (2021). 3) Carbon input value refers to the multiplication of the total carbon emission caused by the consumption of energy (diesel, electricity, etc.) and production materials (fertilizers, pesticides, etc.) in the cultivation of crops and the price of carbon. 表 5 不同估算条件下的乡村农田土壤碳汇潜力(中国、美国与全球)
Table 5. Soil carbon sink potential of rural farmland under different assessment conditions (China, US and world)
研究区
Study area固碳潜力
Carbon sequestration potential
[108 t(C)∙a−1)]估算条件
Assessment condition来源
Source中国
China0.25~0.37 综合养分管理, 作物轮作及有效的保护系统
Comprehensive nutrient management, rotation of crops and effective protection system[61] 0.110~0.365 作物产量提高且作物残茬清除量减少
Crop yield increased and crop residue removal reduced[62] 0.325 50%的免耕以及50%秸秆还田
50% no-tillage and 50% straw returning[63] 0.16~0.20 保护性耕作和水土流失综合治理
Conserving cultivation and soil erosion comprehensive harness[64] 0.20~0.25 改善土壤管理和农田经营机制
Improving soil management and farmland management mechanism[65] 0.33 20世纪80年代农业生产条件
On the basis of agricultural production condition in the 1980s[66] 0.121~0.344 施氮与100%秸秆还田
Nitrogen fertilizer and 100% straw returning[67] 美国
USA0.75~2.08 RMP(资源管理计划)和优化土地利用
Resource Management Plans and land use optimization[68] 0.9~1.8 退耕还草
Restoring farmland to grassland[69] 0.6~0.7 IPCC(联合国政府间气候变化专门委员会)推荐方法
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change recommended methods[70] 全球
World4.0~8.0 RMP(资源管理计划)与保护性耕作
Resource Management Plans and conserving cultivation[71] 5.0~20.0 应用土壤管理新技术
Applying new soil management technologies[69] 3.0~15.0 土地利用/土地覆被变化研究和氮沉降
Land use/land cover change studies and nitrogen deposition[72] 表 6 不同农田管理措施下农田土壤固碳率的区域差异
Table 6. Regional differences in soil carbon sequestration rate under various farmland management measures in China
农田管理方式
Farmland management method具体措施
Concrete measure研究区
Study area土壤类别
Soil type作物熟制
Crop cropping system固碳率
Carbon sequestration
[kg(C)∙hm−2∙a−1]来源
Source秸秆还田模式
Straw returning pattern堆沤还田
Composting return华东地区
East China壤土
Loam soil小麦-玉米两熟制
Wheat-maize cropping system447.05 [73] 华中地区
Central China麦田土
Wheat soil小麦一熟制
Wheat single cropping system676.8 [74] 覆盖还田
Straw mulching return华东地区
East China壤土
Loam soil小麦-玉米两熟制
Wheat-maize cropping system118.63 [73] 华中地区
Central China麦田土
Wheat soil小麦一熟制
Wheat single cropping system410.4 [74] 华南地区
South China水稻土
Paddy soil水稻两熟制
Double rice cropping system906.8 [75] 东北地区
Northeast China中层黑土
Middle layer black soil玉米一熟制
Maize single cropping system770 [76] 西北地区
Northwest China黄壤
Yellow soil两年三熟制
Two-year triple cropping system160 [77] 过腹还田
Straw return after livestock digestion华东地区
East China壤土
Loam soil小麦-玉米两熟制
Wheat-maize cropping system604.44 [73] 华中地区
Central China麦田土
Wheat soil小麦一熟制
Wheat single cropping system758.4 [74] 炭化还田
Carbonization returning华南地区
South China水稻土
Paddy soil水稻两熟制
Double rice cropping system1118.2 [75] 粉碎翻压还田
Breaking and ploughing return东北地区
Northeast China中层黑土
Middle layer black soil玉米一熟制
Maize single cropping system1740 [76] 耕作模式
Cultivation
pattern翻耕
Plough tillage华北地区
North China潮褐土
Meadow cinnamon soil小麦-玉米两熟制
Wheat-maize cropping system615.5 [78] 南方地区
Southern China水稻土
Paddy soil水稻-小麦两熟制
Rice-wheat cropping system449.89 [79] 西北地区
Northwest China黑垆土
Black loessial soil小麦一熟制
Wheat single cropping system76.85 [80] 南方地区
Southern China水稻土
Paddy soil水稻两熟制
Double rice cropping system1008 [75] 免耕
No-tillage华北地区
North China砂壤土
Sandy loam soil玉米一熟制
Maize single cropping system144 [81] 西北地区
Northwest China人为土
Anthropic soils小麦-玉米两熟制
Wheat-maize cropping system1090.7 [82] 华北地区
North China砂壤土
Sandy loam soil小麦一熟制
Wheat single cropping system410 [81] 华北地区
North China壤土
Loam soil小麦-玉米两熟制
Wheat-maize cropping system1137 [83] 华北地区
North China潮褐土
Meadow cinnamon soil小麦-玉米两熟制
Wheat-maize cropping system329.1 [78] 南方地区
Southern China水稻土
Paddy soil水稻-小麦两熟制
Rice-wheat cropping system2333.71 [79] 西北地区
Northwest China黑垆土
Black loessial soil小麦一熟制
Wheat single cropping system148.58 [80] 南方地区
Southern China水稻土
Paddy soil水稻两熟制
Double rice cropping system888 [75] 旋耕
Rotary tillage西北地区
Northwest China人为土
Anthropic soils小麦-玉米两熟制
Wheat-maize cropping system877.2 [82] 华北地区
North China潮褐土
Meadow cinnamon soil小麦-玉米两熟制
Wheat-maize cropping system1011.1 [78] 南方地区
Southern China水稻土
Paddy soil水稻两熟制
Double rice cropping system1065.02 [75] 深松
Deep scarification西北地区
Northwest China人为土
Anthropic soils小麦-玉米两熟制
Wheat-maize cropping system1048.9 [82] 华北地区
North China壤土
Loam soil小麦-玉米两熟制
Wheat-maize cropping system959 [83] 施肥模式
Fertilization pattern单施化肥
Single application
of chemical
fertilizer南方地区
Southern China水稻土
Paddy soil水稻两熟制
Double rice cropping system140 [84] 东北地区
Northeast China淋溶土
Alfisols— 23.5 [85] 华北地区
North China砂壤土
Sandy loam soil小麦-玉米两熟制
Wheat-maize cropping system104.67 [86] 华北地区
North China砂壤土
Sandy loam soil小麦-玉米两熟制
Wheat-maize cropping system76 [87] 南方地区
Southern China黄泥土
Yellow clayey水稻一熟制
Rice single cropping system950 [88] 南方地区
Southern China黄泥土
Yellow clayey水稻两熟制
Double rice cropping system620 [88] 南方地区
Southern China黄壤
Yellow soil玉米一熟制
Maize single cropping system839.05 [89] 华中地区
Central China水稻土
Paddy soil水稻两熟制
Double rice cropping system1525 [90] 西北地区
Northwest China壤土
Loam soil— 240.51 [91] 单施有机肥
Single application
of organic
fertilizer南方地区
Southern China水稻土
Paddy soil水稻两熟制
Double rice cropping system100 [84] 东北地区
Northeast China淋溶土
Alfisols— 195.3 [85] 华北地区
North China砂壤土
Sandy loam soil小麦-玉米两熟制
Wheat-maize cropping system1653 [87] 南方地区
Southern China黄壤
Yellow soil玉米一熟制
Maize single cropping system1300.48 [89] 西北地区
Northwest China壤土
Loam soil— 215.91 [91] 混施有机肥化肥
Mixed application
of organic and chemical fertilizers南方地区
Southern China水稻土
Paddy soil水稻两熟制
Double rice cropping system170 [84] 东北地区
Northeast China淋溶土
Alfisols— 489 [85] 华北地区
North China砂壤土
Sandy loam soil小麦-玉米两熟制
Wheat-maize cropping system564 [86] 华北地区
North China砂壤土
Sandy loam soil小麦-玉米两熟制
Wheat-maize cropping system798 [87] 南方地区
Southern China黄泥土
Yellow clayey水稻一熟制
Rice single cropping system1090 [88] 南方地区
Southern China黄泥土
Yellow clayey水稻两熟制
Double rice cropping system990 [88] 南方地区
Southern China黄壤
Yellow soil玉米一熟制
Maize single cropping system1153.33 [89] 华中地区
Central China水稻土
Paddy soil水稻两熟制
Double rice cropping system3120 [90] 表 7 中国乡村减排增汇措施及其效果
Table 7. Measures and their effects of rural emission reduction and sink increase in China
乡村地域系统
Rural regional system活动
Activity属性
Attribute减排增汇重点
Emission reduction and sink increase focus途径
Approach具体措施
Concrete measure减排效果
Emission
reduction effect增汇效果
Sink increase effect来源
Source农业系统
Agricultural system种植业
Planting industry碳源/碳汇
Carbon source/
carbon sink肥料施用
Fertilizer application使用生物炭
Using biochar15 t∙hm−2生物碳
15 t∙hm−2 Biochar1322.34 kg(CO2)∙hm−2∙a−1 16.88
g(C)∙kg−1[93] 添加抑制剂
Adding inhibitors施用硝化抑制剂
Application of nitrification inhibitors2.42
kg(N2O)∙hm−2228.5
kg(C)∙hm−2[94] 改用长效肥料
Switching to slow-acting fertilizer施用长效碳酸氢铵
Application of long-effect ammonium bicarbonate0.03
kg(CO2)∙kg−14.53
g(C)∙kg−1[95] 测土配方培肥
Soil testing formula fertilization施用控释肥
Application of controlled-release fertilizer13.26
μg(C)∙m−2∙h−1617 k
g(C)∙hm−2[96] 农田管理
Farmland management水分管理
Water
management间歇灌溉
Intermittent irrigation2854.5 kg(CO2)∙hm−2 2526.6
kg(C)∙hm−2[97] 烤田处理
Drying treatment469.9 kg(CH4)∙hm−2∙a−1 0.24
t(C)∙hm−2∙a−1[97] 肥料控制
Fertilizer control氮肥减量施用
Reducing nitrogen application1034
kg(CO2)∙hm−2570
kg(C)∙hm−2[87] 品种选育控制
Variety breeding control种植杂交水稻
Planting hybrid rice13.93
mg∙m−2∙h−17.66
g∙m−2∙d−1[98-99] 燃烧秸秆转化
Converting burning straw秸秆炭化
Straw carbonization602.82 kg(CO2)∙kg−1∙a−1 164.45 kg(CO2)∙kg−1∙a−1 [100] 秸秆沼气化
Straw biogasification27530 kg(CO2)∙kg−1∙a−1 — [101] 养殖业
Breeding industry碳源
Carbon sink肠道发酵
Enteric fermentation沼气工程
Biogas project秸秆全量利用技术
Whole straw utilization12 ×165104
t(CO2)∙a−1— [102] 8 m3水压式沼气池
Hydraulic biogas digester1612 g(CO2)∙a−1 — [103] 提高饲料消化率
Increasing digestibility of feed使用舔砖或营养添加剂
Utilization of lick block or nutritional additivesCH4减排25%
25% reduction of CH4 emission— [104] 改善饲料质量
Improve feed quality秸秆氨化处理
Straw ammoniation treatment11.04 kg(CH4)∙head−1∙a−1 — [105] 饲喂青贮玉米秸秆
Silage corn straw as feed32.68
L(CH4)∙d−1— [105] 粪便管理
Manure management固体粪便利用
Solid manure utilization反应器式堆肥
Reactor composting33.27
g(CO2)∙kg−1— [106] 添加覆盖物
Mulching表面罩多孔渗
水膜
Porous permeable membrane coverage0.42
g(C)∙m−3∙h−1— [107] 稻草覆盖粪便
表面
Porous permeable membrane coverage0.28
g(C)∙m−3∙h−1— [108] 村庄系统
Village system居民生活
Residential living碳源
Carbon source劳动力
Labor人力资源投入
Human resource input(地区总人口/地区GDP)提高1%
Ratio of regional population to GDP increased by 1%903.8 ×104 t(CO2)∙a−1 — [109] 乡域系统
Rural system城镇化
Urbanization(地区总人口/农村总人口)降低1%
Ratio of regional population to rural population decreased by 1%1897.23×104
t(CO2)∙a−1— [56] 城镇系统
Township system产业
Industry农业产业结构
Agricultural industrial structure(种植业产值/农林牧渔产值)降低1%
Ratio of planting industry output to agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery output decreased by 1%.246.12×104
t(CO2)∙a−1— [56] 农业对外开放度
Agricultural openness degree(农产品进口量/粮食总产量)提高1%
Ratio of agricultural product imports to grain output increased by 1%307.4×104 t(CO2)∙a−1 — [110] 技术
Technology农业科技进步
Agricultural scientific and technological progress农业科技支出提高1%
Agricultural science and technology expenditure increased by 1 %491.66×104
t(CO2)∙a−1— [111] 农业机械化程度
Agricultural mechanization degree农业机械总动力降低1%
Total power of agricultural machinery reduced by 1%150.13×104
t(CO2)∙a−1— [56] 乡村环境治理水平
Rural environmental governance level(环境治理完成项目额/地区GDP)提高1%
Ratio of completed environmental governance projects to regional GDP increased by 1%487.98×104 t(CO2)∙a−1 — [112] 经济
Economy经济发展水平
Economic development level(地区GDP/地区总人口)降低1%
Ratio of regional GDP to regional population decreased by 1%3718.88×104 t(CO2)∙a−1 — [56] 经济规模
Economic scale地区GDP降低1%
Regional GDP decreased by 1%959.81×104 t(CO2)∙a−1 — [110] -
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