白洋淀流域气温、降水和径流变化特征及其相互响应关系

高彦春; 王金凤; 封志明

doi:10.13930/j.cnki.cjea.160784

白洋淀流域气温、降水和径流变化特征及其相互响应关系

doi: 10.13930/j.cnki.cjea.160784

高彦春^{1, 3,},
王金凤^2, ,,
封志明^{1, 4}

1.
中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所北京 100101
2.
山西师范大学地理科学学院临汾 041000
3.
中国科学院陆地水循环及地表过程重点实验室北京 100101
4.
中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所资源利用与环境修复重点实验室北京 100101

基金项目:

国家重点基础研究发展计划（973计划）项目 2015CB452705

国家自然科学基金重点项目 41430861

国家自然科学基金重点项目 40871198

详细信息

作者简介:
高彦春, 主要研究方向为水文遥感和水文水资源。E-mail:gaoyanc@igsnrr.ac.cn

通讯作者:
王金凤, 主要从事遥感水文方面的研究。E-mail:wangjinfeng@lzb.ac.cn

中图分类号: P339
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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2016-11-03
- 录用日期: 2017-01-06
- 刊出日期: 2017-04-01

Variation trend and response relationship of temperature, precipitation and runoff in Baiyangdian Lake Basin

GAO Yanchun^{1, 3
,},
WANG Jinfeng^{2
, ,},
FENG Zhiming^{1, 4}

1.
Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
2.
College of Geographical Sciences, Shanxi Normal University, Linfen 041000, China
3.
Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
4.
Key Laboratory for Resources Use & Environmental Remediation, Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China

Funds:

the National Program on Key Basic Research Project of China 2015CB452705

the National Natural Science Foundation of China 41430861

the National Natural Science Foundation of China 40871198

More Information

Corresponding author: WANG Jinfeng, E-mail: wangjinfeng@lzb.ac.cn

摘要

摘要: 运用Mann-Kendall趋势检验、突变检验和小波分析法，对白洋淀流域1957-2012年7个气象站点气温、降水和3个典型水文站点径流量的变化趋势、突变点及周期性变化进行了分析，并探讨了径流与降水和气温的响应关系，以期为该地区生态环境保护和水资源合理利用提供基础数据支持。结果表明，研究区年均气温呈上升的趋势，并在1988年后上升趋势增大，其中，冬季和春季的气温增幅对气温升高贡献较大；降水量变化相对复杂，整体呈波动下降的趋势，其中，夏季降水量减少幅度最大，达1.72 mm·a^-1。受气温升高和降水量的直接影响，典型站点径流量呈明显下降趋势，并在年际尺度上与气温呈负相关，与降水变化呈显著正相关；在年内尺度上，则与气温和降水变化呈显著正相关。夏季径流量减少幅度最大，阜平、倒马关和紫荆关站分别下降0.85 m³·s^-1·a^-1、0.72 m³·s^-1·a^-1和0.66 m³·s^-1·a^-1。3个指标的周期性变化都比较明显，其中径流和降水的波动变化基本一致，表明径流对降水的响应比较突出。径流变化不仅受气温和降水的影响，还受到水利工程建设、各类农业措施等多种因素的影响。

Abstract: As the largest freshwater lake in the North China Plain, Baiyangdian Lake is a key hydro-confluence that is critical for flood prevention, sedimentation mitigation, irrigation, water supply and maintenance of ecological balance of the area. Since the 1960s, surface runoff in Baiyangdian Basin has continuously dropped, water quantity greatly reduced and lake-drying frequency increased due to the impact of climate change and human activities. The decreasing water quantity has reduced ecological function of the lake, further affecting socio-economic development and ecological security in the region. Using observed daily temperature and precipitation data at 7 meteorological stations along with monthly runoff data from 3 typical hydrological stations for the period 1957-2012, the change characteristics in temperature, precipitation and runoff in the Baiyangdian Lake Basin were analyzed. In this study, the cumulative anomaly method, Mann-Kendall test and Morlet wavelet analysis method were used to determine the trends and abrupt changes in mean annual temperature, precipitation and runoff. The purpose of this study was to develop data support and reference base for improving ecological environment and reasonable utilization of water resources in the area. The results showed that the climate in the study area had a significant warming trend with an abrupt increase of temperature since 1988. Especially, the increase of temperature in both winter and summer contributed more to temperatures rising. Annual precipitation showed a decreasing trend with obvious fluctuation. The decrease in summer precipitation (1.72 mm·a^-1) was higher than that in the other seasons. Increasing temperature along with decreasing precipitation were the dominant trends, further aggravating dry and hot climatic conditions and lake-drying in the region. There was an obvious decreasing trend in runoff due to the effect of temperature and precipitation. There was a negative correlation between runoff and temperature and a positive correlation between runoff and precipitation at annual scale. At seasonal scale, runoff was positively correlated with temperature and precipitation. Summer runoff in Fuping, Daomaguan and Zijingguan hydrological stations decreased by 0.85 m³·s^-1·a^-1, 0.72 m³·s^-1·a^-1 and 0.66 m³·s^-1·a^-1, respectively. The intervals of change in mean annual temperature, precipitation and runoff were obvious. Also the fluctuations in runoff and precipitation were consistent, suggesting that the response of runoff to precipitation was more prominent. The change in runoff was not only influenced by temperature and precipitation, but also by other climatic factors, water conservancy projects, agriculture and local geological conditions. In future studies, it was needed to further analyze the effect of each factor on the runoff in order to comprehensively understand the driving factors of runoff in the basin.

HTML全文

图 1 白洋淀流域河流水系、气象站和水文站分布图

Figure 1. Sketch map of river systems, meteorological stations and hydrological stations in Baiyangdian Lake Basin

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 2 1957—2012年白洋淀流域气温 (a)、降水 (b) 和径流 (c, d) 的年际变化图

Figure 2. Inter-annual changing trends of air temperature (a), precipitation (b) and runoff (c, d) in the study area from 1957 to 2012

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图 3 1957—2012年白洋淀流域年平均气温 (a)、年降水量 (b) 和年径流量 (c) M-K突变判别曲线 (虚线是95%的置信水平)

Figure 3. Trend and abrupt point detection of temperature (a), precipitation (b) and runoff (c) in the study area from 1957 to 2012(the dotted lines are the 95% confidence levels)

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图 4 1957—2012年白洋淀流域年均温 (a)、年降水量 (b) 和年径流量 (c) 累积距平图

Figure 4. Accumulated anomalies of air temperature (a), precipitation (b) and annual runoff volume (d) in the study area from 1957 to 2012

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图 5 20世纪60年代到21世纪00年代白洋淀流域气温 (a)、降水 (b) 和各站径流 (c, d, e) 年内分布的年代际变化

Figure 5. Inter-decadal variations of temperature (a), precipitation (b) and runoff in different stations (c, d, e) within a year in the study area from 1960s to 2000s

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图 6 1957—2012年白洋淀流域逐月、逐季节平均气温 (a, b)、降水 (c, d) 和径流量 (e, f) 变化幅度 (b)

Figure 6. Change ranges (b) of monthly and seasonal temperature (a, b), precipitation (c, d) and runoff (e, f) in the study area from 1957 to 2012

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图 7 1957—2012年白洋淀流域年均温 (a)、年降水量 (b) 和年径流量 (c) 小波分析图

Figure 7. Change cycles of annual average temperature (a), annual precipitation (b) and annual runoff (c) in the study area from 1957 to 2012

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