留言板

尊敬的读者、作者、审稿人, 关于本刊的投稿、审稿、编辑和出版的任何问题, 您可以本页添加留言。我们将尽快给您答复。谢谢您的支持!

姓名
邮箱
手机号码
标题
留言内容
验证码

气候变化背景下安徽省冬小麦气候生产潜力和胁迫风险研究

卢燕宇 孙维 唐为安 何冬燕 邓汗青

卢燕宇, 孙维, 唐为安, 何冬燕, 邓汗青. 气候变化背景下安徽省冬小麦气候生产潜力和胁迫风险研究[J]. 中国生态农业学报(中英文), 2020, 28(1): 17-30. doi: 10.13930/j.cnki.cjea.190463
引用本文: 卢燕宇, 孙维, 唐为安, 何冬燕, 邓汗青. 气候变化背景下安徽省冬小麦气候生产潜力和胁迫风险研究[J]. 中国生态农业学报(中英文), 2020, 28(1): 17-30. doi: 10.13930/j.cnki.cjea.190463
LU Yanyu, SUN Wei, TANG Wei'an, HE Dongyan, DENG Hanqing. Climatic potential productivity and stress risk of winter wheat under the background of climate change in Anhui Province[J]. Chinese Journal of Eco-Agriculture, 2020, 28(1): 17-30. doi: 10.13930/j.cnki.cjea.190463
Citation: LU Yanyu, SUN Wei, TANG Wei'an, HE Dongyan, DENG Hanqing. Climatic potential productivity and stress risk of winter wheat under the background of climate change in Anhui Province[J]. Chinese Journal of Eco-Agriculture, 2020, 28(1): 17-30. doi: 10.13930/j.cnki.cjea.190463

气候变化背景下安徽省冬小麦气候生产潜力和胁迫风险研究

doi: 10.13930/j.cnki.cjea.190463
基金项目: 

中国气象局气候变化专项 CCSF201809

安徽省气象局创新团队建设计划和国家重点研发计划项目 2017YFD0301301

详细信息
    作者简介:

    卢燕宇, 研究方向为气候变化和气象灾害风险。E-mail:ahqxlyy@163.com

  • 中图分类号: S162

Climatic potential productivity and stress risk of winter wheat under the background of climate change in Anhui Province

Funds: 

the Climate Change Special Fund of the China Meteorological Administration CCSF201809

Anhui Meteorological Bureau Innovation Team Project and the National Key Research and Development Project of China 2017YFD0301301

More Information
  • 摘要: 从气候的资源和灾害双重属性出发,构建了冬小麦气候生产潜力和胁迫风险评价指标,以安徽省为例分析了二者对气候变化的响应特征,综合气候对高产和稳产的影响进行研究区冬小麦种植气候适宜性区划。结果表明:采用逐级订正法结合作物生长动态参数估算安徽省冬小麦气候生产潜力多年平均为12 391 kg·hm-2,以沿淮和江淮之间最高;1961-2015年淮北和沿淮东部地区为显著上升趋势,而淮河以南地区则以下降为主。通过考虑在冬小麦生长发育过程中气候条件偏离最适区间而导致的胁迫影响,建立了高温、低温、雨涝、干旱4种气候胁迫的评估指标,并基于气候胁迫的超越概率形成了冬小麦气候风险评价方法。气候变暖使研究区冬小麦高温胁迫显著上升,低温胁迫显著下降,水分胁迫无显著的变化趋势。安徽省冬小麦的气候风险呈现中间低,两头高的分布特征,以沿淮和江淮之间风险最低,淮北北部和江南南部风险较高;淮北地区主要以干旱和低温贡献为主,而淮河以南地区则以雨涝风险为主。融合气候生产潜力和气候胁迫风险形成冬小麦的气候适宜性区划,其空间格局呈南北低、中间高的特征,种植分布格局与气候适宜性的空间匹配程度较高,但有一定的优化调整空间。
  • 图  1  安徽省地形概况、气象站点分布(a)以及冬小麦种植面积比例的空间分布(b)

    Figure  1.  Topographic feature, meteorological stations (a) and spatial distribution of winter wheat area ratio (b) in Anhui Province

    图  2  1961—2015年安徽省冬小麦光合生产潜力(a)、光温生产潜力(b)和气候生产潜力(c)空间分布

    Figure  2.  Spatial distribution of photosynthetic potential productivity (a), light-temperature potential productivity (b), and climatic potential productivity (c) of winter wheat in Anhui Province during the period of 1961-2015

    图  3  1961—2015年安徽省冬小麦光合生产潜力(a)、光温生产潜力(b)和气候生产潜力(c)的变化趋势

    Figure  3.  Trends of photosynthetic potential productivity (a), light-temperature potential productivity (b), and climatic potential productivity (c) of winter wheat in Anhui Province during the period of 1961-2015

    图  4  1961—2015年安徽省冬小麦光合生产潜力(a)、光温生产潜力(b)和气候生产潜力(c)趋势系数的空间分布

    Figure  4.  Spatial distribution of trend coefficients of photosynthetic potential productivity (a), light-temperature potential productivity (b), and climatic potential productivity (c) of winter wheat in Anhui Province during the period of 1961-2015

    图  5  1961—2015年安徽省冬小麦高温(a)、低温(b)、雨涝(c)、干旱(d)胁迫指数的空间分布

    Figure  5.  Spatial distribution of stress indexes of heat (a), cold (b), waterlogging (c), and drought (d) of winter wheat in Anhui Province during the period of 1961-2015

    图  6  1961—2015年安徽省冬小麦高温(a)、低温(b)、雨涝(c)、干旱(d)胁迫指数的变化趋势

    Figure  6.  Trends of stress indexes of heat (a), cold (b), waterlogging (c), and drought (d) in Anhui Province during the period of 1961-2015

    图  7  1961—2015年安徽省冬小麦高温(a)、低温(b)、雨涝(c)、干旱(d)胁迫指数变化的空间分布

    Figure  7.  Spatial distribution of trend coefficients of stress indexes of heat (a), cold (b), waterlogging (c) and drought (d) in Anhui Province during the period of 1961-2015

    图  8  安徽省冬小麦气候风险指数的空间分布(a)以及不同气候胁迫条件的贡献(b)

    Figure  8.  Spatial distribution of climate risk index (a) and contribution of different climate stress (b) for winter wheat in Anhui Province

    图  9  安徽省冬小麦气候适宜性区划

    Figure  9.  Climate suitability zoning of winter wheat in Anhui Province

    表  1  冬小麦光合生产潜力作物参数意义及取值

    Table  1.   Values and meanings of photosynthetic potential productivity parameters of winter wheat

    参数Parameter 物理意义Physical meaning 取值Value
    Ω 作物光照强度利用效率Crop utilization efficiency of light intensity (%) 85
    ε 光合有效辐射比率Fraction of photosynthetically active radiation (%) 49
    φ 光量子转化效率Light quantum efficiency (%) 22
    α 植物群体反射率Plant population reflectance (%) 10
    β 植物群体透射率Plant population transmittance (%) 7
    ρ 作物非光合器官截获辐射比率Fraction of radiation intercepted by crop non-photosynthetic organ (%) 10
    γ 超过光饱和点的光的比率Ratio of light exceeding the light saturation point (%) 5
    ω 呼吸消耗占光合产物比重Fraction of photosynthetic products consumed by respiration (%) 33
    f(L) 作物叶面积动态变化订正值Revised factor for dynamic change of crop leaf area 0.5
    E 作物经济系数Crop economic coefficient 0.45
    q 单位干物质的含热量Heat content per unit dry matter (MJ∙kg-1) 17.58
    η 成熟作物的含水率Moisture content of mature crops (%) 14
    ξ 作物灰分率Crop ash content (%) 8
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  2  冬小麦不同生长期三基点温度

    Table  2.   Three critical points of temperature at different growth stages of winter wheat

    生育期Growth stage T0 (℃) T1 (℃) T2 (℃)
    苗期Seedling stage 15 5 30
    营养生长期Vegetative growth stage 5 0 20
    营养生殖并进期Synchronization stage of vegetative and reproductive growth 10 5 25
    开花灌浆期Flowering and filling stage 18 10 30
    成熟期Maturation stage 20 10 32
    T0T1T2分别是产量形成的最适温度和生长发育的下限温度、上限温度。T0, T1, T2 are the optimal temperature for yield formation, the lower temperature and upper temperature of growth.
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  3  冬小麦各生育期作物系数(Kc)、水分亏缺产量敏感系数(Ky)及水分过剩产量敏感系数(Km)

    Table  3.   Crop coefficient (Kc), yield sensitivity coefficients of water deficit (Ky) and water excess (Km) of winter wheat at different growth stages

    生育期Growth stage Kc Ky Km
    苗期Seedling stage 0.4 0.2 0.14
    营养生长期Vegetative growth stage 0.8 0.2 0.14
    营养生殖并进期Synchronization stage of vegetative and reproductive growth 1.2 0.6 0.21
    开花灌浆期Flowering and filling stage 0.75 0.5 0.21
    成熟期Maturation stage 0.25 0.5 0.21
    下载: 导出CSV
  • [1] 谢立勇, 李悦, 徐玉秀, 等.气候变化对农业生产与粮食安全影响的新认知[J].气候变化研究进展, 2014, 10(4):235-239 doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-1719.2014.04.001

    XIE L Y, LI Y, XU Y X, et al. Updated understanding on the impacts of climate change on food production and food security[J]. Advances in Climate Change Research, 2014, 10(4):235-239 doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-1719.2014.04.001
    [2] PIAO S L, CIAIS P, HUANG Y, et al. The impacts of climate change on water resources and agriculture in China[J]. Nature, 2010, 467(7311):43-51 doi: 10.1038/nature09364
    [3] 邓根云.气候生产潜力的季节分配与玉米的最佳播期[J].气象学报, 1986, 44(2):192-198 http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTotal-QXXB198602007.htm

    DENG G Y. The seasonal distribution of climatic potential productivity and the optimum seeding time of maize[J]. Acta Meteorologica Sinica, 1986, 44(2):192-198 http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTotal-QXXB198602007.htm
    [4] BONNER J. The upper limit of crop yield[J]. Science, 1962, 137(3523):11-15 doi: 10.1126/science.137.3523.11
    [5] DE WIT C T. Simulation of Assimilation, Respiration and Transpiration of Crops[M]. Wageningen:Wageningen Centre for Agricultural Publishing and Documentation, 1978
    [6] 白美兰, 郝润全, 高建国, 等.内蒙古地区气候资源生产潜力及其人口承载力分析评估[J].干旱地区农业研究, 2010, 28(6):253-257 http://d.old.wanfangdata.com.cn/Periodical/ghdqnyyj201006045

    BAI M L, HAO R Q, GAO J G, et al. Climatic resources potential productivity and its population capacity evaluation in Inner Mongolia[J]. Agricultural Research in the Arid Areas, 2010, 28(6):253-257 http://d.old.wanfangdata.com.cn/Periodical/ghdqnyyj201006045
    [7] 李艳春.宁夏干旱区气候承载力分布特征分析[J].干旱区资源与环境, 2010, 24(8):96-99 http://d.old.wanfangdata.com.cn/Periodical/ghqzyyhj201008019

    LI Y C. Climate capacity distribution characteristics in Ningxia arid area[J]. Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment, 2010, 24(8):96-99 http://d.old.wanfangdata.com.cn/Periodical/ghqzyyhj201008019
    [8] 卢燕宇, 王胜, 田红, 等.近50年安徽省气候生产潜力演变及粮食安全气候承载力评估[J].长江流域资源与环境, 2017, 26(3):428-435 doi: 10.11870/cjlyzyyhj201703013

    LU Y Y, WANG S, TIAN H, et al. Spatial and temporal variation of climatic potential productivity and its population capacity of food supply in Anhui Province[J]. Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin, 2017, 26(3):428-435 doi: 10.11870/cjlyzyyhj201703013
    [9] 王连喜, 卢媛媛, 李琪, 等.基于AEZ模型的河南省冬小麦产量差时空特征分析[J].中国生态农业学报, 2018, 26(4):547-558 http://d.old.wanfangdata.com.cn/Periodical/stnyyj201804008

    WANG L X, LU Y Y, LI Q, et al. Spatio-temporal analysis of winter wheat yield gaps in Henan Province using AEZ model[J]. Chinese Journal of Eco-Agriculture, 2018, 26(4):547-558 http://d.old.wanfangdata.com.cn/Periodical/stnyyj201804008
    [10] 丁一汇, 任国玉, 石广玉, 等.气候变化国家评估报告(Ⅰ):中国气候变化的历史和未来趋势[J].气候变化研究进展, 2006, 2(1):3-8 doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-1719.2006.01.001

    DING Y H, REN G Y, SHI G Y, et al. National assessment report of climate change (Ⅰ):climate change in China and its future trend[J]. Advances in Climate Change Research, 2006, 2(1):3-8 doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-1719.2006.01.001
    [11] 葛亚宁, 刘洛, 徐新良, 等.近50a气候变化背景下我国玉米生产潜力时空演变特征[J].自然资源学报, 2015, 30(5):784-795 http://www.wanfangdata.com.cn/details/detail.do?_type=perio&id=zrzyxb201505007

    GE Y N, LIU L, XU X L, et al. Temporal and spatial variations of Chinese maize production potential on the background of climate change during 1960-2010[J]. Journal of Natural Resources, 2015, 30(5):784-795 http://www.wanfangdata.com.cn/details/detail.do?_type=perio&id=zrzyxb201505007
    [12] 李祎君, 王春乙, 赵蓓, 等.气候变化对中国农业气象灾害与病虫害的影响[J].农业工程学报, 2010, 26(S1):263-271 http://d.old.wanfangdata.com.cn/Periodical/mykj201407223

    LI Y J, WANG C Y, ZHAO B, et al. Effects of climate change on agricultural meteorological disaster and crop insects diseases[J]. Transactions of the CSAE, 2010, 26(S1):263-271 http://d.old.wanfangdata.com.cn/Periodical/mykj201407223
    [13] 杜祥备, 孔令聪, 习敏, 等.江淮区域稻麦两熟制周年资源分配、利用特征[J].中国生态农业学报(中英文), 2019, 27(7):1078-1087 //www.primetvmedia.com/zgstny/ch/reader/view_abstract.aspx?file_no=2019-0710&flag=1

    DU X B, KONG L C, XI M, et al. Characteristics of resource allocation and utilization of rice-wheat double cropping system in the Jianghuai Area[J]. Chinese Journal of Eco-Agriculture, 2019, 27(7):1078-1087 //www.primetvmedia.com/zgstny/ch/reader/view_abstract.aspx?file_no=2019-0710&flag=1
    [14] REN S L, QIN Q M, REN H Z. Contrasting wheat phenological responses to climate change in global scale[J]. Science of the Total Environment, 2019, 665:620-631 doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.01.394
    [15] 许莹, 马晓群, 吴文玉.气候变化对安徽省主要农作物水分供需状况的影响[J].气候变化研究进展, 2012, 8(3):198-204 doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-1719.2012.03.007

    XU Y, MA X Q, WU W Y. Impact of climate changes on water demand and supply of rice and winter wheat in Anhui Province[J]. Advances in Climate Change Research, 2012, 8(3):198-204 doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-1719.2012.03.007
    [16] 卢燕宇, 田红, 侯恩兵, 等.实际地形下地表太阳总辐射的简化算法及应用[J].中国农业气象, 2017, 38(7):397-406 doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2017.07.001

    LU Y Y, TIAN H, HOU E B, et al. A simplified calculation method of surface solar radiation over rugged terrains:the procedure and its application in Anhui Province[J]. Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology, 2017, 38(7):397-406 doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2017.07.001
    [17] 卢燕宇, 田红, 鲁俊, 等.近50年安徽省太阳总辐射的时空变化特征[J].气象科技, 2016, 44(5):769-775 doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1671-6345.2016.05.013

    LU Y Y, TIAN H, LU J, et al. Spatial-temporal variation characteristics of gross solar radiation in Anhui Province from 1961 to 2010[J]. Meteorological Science and Technology, 2016, 44(5):769-775 doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1671-6345.2016.05.013
    [18] 熊伟, 居辉, 许吟隆, 等.气候变化下我国小麦产量变化区域模拟研究[J].中国生态农业学报, 2006, 14(2):164-167 http://d.old.wanfangdata.com.cn/Periodical/stnyyj200602048

    XIONG W, JU H, XU Y L, et al. Regional simulation of wheat yield in China under the climatic change conditions[J]. Chinese Journal of Eco-Agriculture, 2006, 14(2):164-167 http://d.old.wanfangdata.com.cn/Periodical/stnyyj200602048
    [19] 许艳, 濮励杰, 朱明.基于作物生长期的江苏省沿海地区气候生产潜力估算[J].地理科学, 2015, 35(5):658-664 http://www.wanfangdata.com.cn/details/detail.do?_type=perio&id=dlkx201505020

    XU Y, PU L J, ZHU M. Calculation of climate potential productivity at coastal zone of Jiangsu Province based on crop growing period[J]. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2015, 35(5):658-664 http://www.wanfangdata.com.cn/details/detail.do?_type=perio&id=dlkx201505020
    [20] 蔡承智, Harrij van Velthuizen, Guenther Fischer, 等.基于AEZ模型的我国农区小麦生产潜力分析[J].中国生态农业学报, 2007, 15(5):182-184 http://d.old.wanfangdata.com.cn/Periodical/stnyyj200705045

    CAI C Z, VAN VELTHUIZEN H, FISCHER G, et al. Analyses of wheat yield potential by AEZ model on the basis of Chinese farming system zonation[J]. Chinese Journal of Eco-Agriculture, 2007, 15(5):182-184 http://d.old.wanfangdata.com.cn/Periodical/stnyyj200705045
    [21] 曹卫星.作物栽培学总论[M]. 3版.北京:科学出版社, 2018

    CAO W X. Pandect of Crop Cultivation Science[M]. Beijing:Science Press, 2018
    [22] 张玉芳, 庞艳梅, 刘琰琰, 等.近50年四川省水稻生产潜力变化特征分析[J].中国生态农业学报, 2014, 22(7):813-820 http://d.old.wanfangdata.com.cn/Periodical/stnyyj201407009

    ZHANG Y F, PANG Y M, LIU Y Y, et al. Potential productivity of rice in Sichuan Province in recent five decades[J]. Chinese Journal of Eco-Agriculture, 2014, 22(7):813-820 http://d.old.wanfangdata.com.cn/Periodical/stnyyj201407009
    [23] HIGGINS G M, KASSAM A H, NAIKEN L, et al. Potential population supporting capacities of lands in the developing world[J]. Population and Development Review, 1984, 10(4):733-735 doi: 10.2307/1973291
    [24] 陈惠, 蔡文华, 张春桂, 等.福建省粮食作物气候-土壤生产力及人口承载量的研究[J].资源科学, 2002, 24(1):62-67 doi: 10.3321/j.issn:1007-7588.2002.01.013

    CHEN H, CAI W H, ZHANG C G, et al. Climate-soil productivity of grain crops and potential population supporting capacity of land in Fujian Province[J]. Resources Science, 2002, 24(1):62-67 doi: 10.3321/j.issn:1007-7588.2002.01.013
    [25] LILLIEFORS H W. On the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test for normality with mean and variance unknown[J]. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 1967, 62(318):399-402 doi: 10.1080/01621459.1967.10482916
    [26] SHEATHER S J, JONES M C. A reliable data-based bandwidth selection method for kernel density estimation[J]. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society:Series B (Methodological), 1991, 53(3):683-690 doi: 10.1111/j.2517-6161.1991.tb01857.x
    [27] NORTH M A. A method for implementing a statistically significant number of data classes in the Jenks algorithm[C]. Proceedings of the 2009 Sixth International Conference on Fuzzy Systems and Knowledge Discovery, 2009, 1: 35-38
    [28] 商兆堂, 张旭晖, 商舜, 等.江苏省冬小麦生产潜力气候变化趋势评估[J].江苏农业科学, 2018, 46(12):245-249 http://d.old.wanfangdata.com.cn/Periodical/jsnykx201812059
    [29] 钟章奇, 王铮, 夏海斌, 等.全球气候变化下中国农业生产潜力的空间演变[J].自然资源学报, 2015, 30(12):2018-2032 doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2015.12.005

    ZHONG Z Q, WANG Z, XIA H B, et al. Temporal and spatial variation of the potential agricultural productivity of China under global climate change[J]. Journal of Natural Resources, 2015, 30(12):2018-2032 doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2015.12.005
    [30] 姚筠, 许莹, 马晓群.淮河流域降水变化对主要农作物气候生产潜力的限制[J].资源科学, 2017, 39(3):490-500 http://d.old.wanfangdata.com.cn/Periodical/zykx201703011

    YAO Y, XU Y, MA X Q. Influence of precipitation change on climatic potential productivity of major crops in the Huaihe river basin[J]. Resources Science, 2017, 39(3):490-500 http://d.old.wanfangdata.com.cn/Periodical/zykx201703011
    [31] 吴洪颜, 张佩, 徐敏, 等.长江中下游地区冬小麦春季涝渍害灾损风险时空分布特征[J].长江流域资源与环境, 2018, 27(5):1152-1158 doi: 10.11870/cjlyzyyhj201805022

    WU H Y, ZHANG P, XU M, et al. Spatial-temporal variations of the risk of winter wheat loss suffered from spring waterlogging disaster in the middle and lower Yangtze River reaches[J]. Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin, 2018, 27(5):1152-1158 doi: 10.11870/cjlyzyyhj201805022
    [32] 李亚男, 秦耀辰, 谢志祥, 等.中国冬小麦麦收期连阴雨灾害风险评价[J].自然资源学报, 2018, 33(11):68-81 http://d.old.wanfangdata.com.cn/Periodical/zrzyxb201811006

    LI Y N, QIN Y C, XIE Z X, et al. Disaster risk assessment of continuous rain during harvest period of winter wheat in China[J]. Journal of Natural Resources, 2018, 33(11):68-81 http://d.old.wanfangdata.com.cn/Periodical/zrzyxb201811006
    [33] 马尚谦, 张勃, 唐敏, 等.淮河流域冬小麦晚霜冻时空演变分析[J].麦类作物学报, 2019, 39(1):105-113 http://d.old.wanfangdata.com.cn/Periodical/mlzwxb201901015

    MA S Q, ZHANG B, TANG M, et al. Temporal and spatial evolution on late frost damage of winter wheat in Huaihe river basin[J]. Journal of Triticeae Crops, 2019, 39(1):105-113 http://d.old.wanfangdata.com.cn/Periodical/mlzwxb201901015
    [34] 王树刚, 王振林, 王平, 等.不同小麦品种对低温胁迫的反应及抗冻性评价[J].生态学报, 2011, 31(4):1064-1072 http://d.old.wanfangdata.com.cn/Periodical/stxb201104019

    WANG S G, WANG Z L, WANG P, et al. Evaluation of wheat freezing resistance based on the responses of the physiological indices to low temperature stress[J]. Acta Ecologica Sinica, 2011, 31(4):1064-1072 http://d.old.wanfangdata.com.cn/Periodical/stxb201104019
    [35] 肖登攀, 陶福禄.过去30年气候变化对华北平原冬小麦物候的影响研究[J].中国生态农业学报, 2012, 20(11):1539-1545 http://d.old.wanfangdata.com.cn/Periodical/stnyyj201211019

    XIAO D P, TAO F L. Impact of climate change in 1981-2009 on winter wheat phenology in the North China Plain[J]. Chinese Journal of Eco-Agriculture, 2012, 20(11):1539-1545 http://d.old.wanfangdata.com.cn/Periodical/stnyyj201211019
  • 加载中
图(9) / 表(3)
计量
  • 文章访问数:  1161
  • HTML全文浏览量:  133
  • PDF下载量:  560
  • 被引次数: 0
出版历程
  • 收稿日期:  2019-06-23
  • 录用日期:  2019-08-15
  • 刊出日期:  2020-01-01

目录

    /

    返回文章
    返回