Optimization of the planting structure in the upstream region of Baiyangdian Lake based on the non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm (NSGA-Ⅱ)
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摘要: 合理的种植结构是实现区域水资源及土地资源优化配置的基础。针对白洋淀上游水资源紧缺、种植结构不合理等问题,结合当前主要作物种植结构现状,本研究以作物种植面积为优化变量,以水资源、土地资源、社会需求等为约束条件,以经济效益、生态效益最大及总灌溉耗水量最小为目标,构建基于非支配排序遗传算法(NSGA-Ⅱ)的作物种植结构多目标调整模型,并提出了针对白洋淀上游平原区、山区等不同水资源限制和农业机械化程度情景下的种植结构调整优化方案。研究结果表明,在平原区现状机械化水平下,在不限制用水的情景下,可以通过调减一年两作的种植面积,增加蔬菜和绿豆-鲜食玉米等的种植面积,达到提高经济效益12.6%的目的,而生态效益和节水效益都有所降低。在限水情景下,小麦-玉米调减比例增加,调增绿豆-鲜食玉米、春季甘薯、蔬菜和果蔬的面积,实现经济效益和节水效益的提高;而要达到节水20%的目标,所有作物的种植面积都要缩减,高耗水种植制度小麦-玉米种植面积缩减比例达21.5%,同时经济效益和生态效益都下降。在未来提高机械化水平的情景下,调整优化后的经济效益相比现状机械化水平提高或下降减少。在山区所有情景下,小麦-玉米种植面积随着对水分限制水平(不限水—小于现状水资源—节水20%)的增加调减比例增加,同时增加果树的种植面积。在山区可以通过种植结构的调整达到既节水20%,同时经济效益提高的目标,这是平原区所不能达到的。总之,无论是平原区还是山区,均是在不限水情景下优化后的经济效益、生态效益相对较高,而节水越多,优化后的经济效益、生态效益增幅越小、降幅越大。并且在平原区如果在节水要求不高的情景下应适当增加蔬菜面积,减少粮食种植面积;在节水要求高的情景下应削减所有作物包括水果、蔬菜的种植面积,在山区应该适当削减粮食种植面积,扩大果树的种植面积。该研究不仅可为研究区未来作物种植结构调整提供决策依据,也为在类似地区种植结构调整和水资源优化管理提供了新的情景参考。Abstract: Reasonable planting structures are the basis of the optimal allocation of regional water and land resources. The upstream region of Baiyangdian Lake suffers from the perils of water shortage and an unreasonable planting structure. On the base of the current status of the main crop planting structure, this study considered the crop planting area as optimization variable, the water resources, land resources, and social needs as the constraints, while seeking to maximize the economic and ecological benefits and to minimize the irrigation water consumption based on the non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm (NSGA-Ⅱ) of the crop planting structure adjustment model. This study also proposed the planting structure optimization schemes under different scenarios of various water restrictions and agricultural mechanization levels in the mountain area and plain area of the upstream of Baiyangdian Lake. The results showed that, at the current status of mechanization level, the area of the rotations of two crops in a year scaled down, while vegetables and mung beans-fresh maize areas increased, the economic benefits should increase 12.6%, and ecological and water-saving benefits decreased under the no-restricted irrigation water; while wheat-maize, mung beans-fresh maize, spring sweet potato, vegetables and fruits areas increased under restricted irrigation water inducing increased economic and water-saving benefits. In the 20% water-saving scenario, almost all crop areas would be scaled down, including vegetables, area of wheat-maize decreased 21.5%, and economic and ecological benefits decreased. In the scenario without water limitation, the optimized economic benefit increased the most, the ecological benefit decrease the least, water consumption increased, and the grain yield decreased the least. However, in the scenario of 20% water saving, the economic and ecological benefits and grain yield decreased. Under current and future mechanization levels, the fruit tree area increased under different water restriction scenarios. With no-water limitation, the economic and ecological benefits maximally improved after optimization, and water use and grain yield maximally decrease. Under the 20% water-saving scenario, the economic benefit increased the least, the ecological benefit decreased, and grain yield decreased the most. These results indicate that the current and future mechanization scenarios are not limited by water in the plain or mountainous areas, and the optimized economic and ecological benefits are relatively high. Moreover, in the plain areas with low water-saving requirements, the vegetable planting area should be increased, and the grain planting area should be reduced. In areas with high water-saving requirements, the planting area of all crops, including fruits and vegetables, should be reduced. In the mountainous areas, the grain planting area should be reduced, and the fruit tree planting area should be expanded. This study provides a decision basis for future regional planting structure adjustment. Past adjustments in the planting structure, with more adjustments according to different crop types, tended to ignore adjustments in the different cropping systems or to consider the fixed number of years or different climate scenarios. This paper proposed different scenarios of mechanization and water limitations and highlighted the optimization results under different scenarios for similar areas after adjustment in the planting structure.
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表 1 白洋淀上游各种种植制度单位面积机械种植成本
Table 1. Mechanical planting cost per unit area of various cropping system in the upper stream of Baiyangdian Lake
¥∙hm–2 种植制度
Cropping system灌溉
Irrigation种子
Seeds耕地
Cultivated
land播种
Sowing收获
Harvest肥料
Fertilizer农药
Pesticide农膜
Mulching
films劳力
Labor总成本
Total
cost小麦-玉米Wheat-maize 1875 1800 1800 675 2100 3900 630 60 1200 14 040 小麦-谷子Wheat-millet 1875 1140 1800 750 1800 3975 480 0 1080 12 900 小麦-大豆Wheat-soybean 1875 1470 1800 600 1800 3405 630 0 1320 12 900 小麦-夏甘薯
Wheat-summer sweet potato2100 6300 2775 3900 3300 4950 630 0 2130 26 085 小麦-绿豆
Wheat-mung bean1875 1575 1800 600 1800 3585 630 60 1470 13 395 绿豆-鲜食玉米
Mung beans-fresh maize1575 2775 900 675 2100 3210 600 120 2050 14 005 玉米一作Maize 375 750 900 375 1200 1800 300 60 390 6150 棉花一作Cotton 1200 540 900 375 1200 2550 1080 615 3180 11 640 春甘薯一作
Spring sweet potato1800 15 750 1875 3600 2400 3000 1250 900 3740 34 315 谷子一作Millet 375 90 900 450 900 975 150 0 270 4110 花生一作Peanut 375 2370 900 375 900 2250 615 120 750 8655 高粱一作Sorghum 375 600 900 375 900 900 225 0 1095 5370 表 2 白洋淀上游各种种植制度单位面积非机械类种植成本
Table 2. Non-mechanical planting cost per unit area of various cropping system in the upper stream of Baiyangdian Lake
¥∙hm–2 种植制度
Cropping system灌溉Irrigation 种子
Seed耕地Cultivated
land播种Sowing 收获Harvest 肥料Fertilizer 农药Pesticide 农膜Mulching
films劳力Labor 总成本
Total
cost小麦-谷子
Wheat-millet1875 1140 3600 1200 3150 3975 480 0 1080 16 500 小麦-大豆
Wheat-soybean1875 1470 3600 900 3150 3405 630 0 1320 16 350 小麦-夏甘薯
Wheat-summer sweet potato2100 6300 6300 3900 5700 4950 630 0 2130 32 010 小麦-绿豆
Wheat-mung bean1875 1575 3600 900 3150 3585 630 60 1470 16 845 绿豆-鲜食玉米
Mung beans-fresh maize1575 2775 2700 1375 5950 3210 600 120 2050 20 355 玉米一作Maize 375 750 2700 750 2700 1800 300 60 390 9825 棉花一作Cotton 1200 540 2700 750 3000 2550 1080 615 3180 15 615 春甘薯一作
Spring sweet potato1800 15 750 5400 3600 4800 3000 1250 900 3740 40 240 谷子一作Millet 375 90 2700 900 2250 975 150 0 270 7710 花生一作Peanut 375 2370 2700 750 2700 2250 615 120 750 12 630 高粱一作Sorghum 375 600 2700 900 2250 900 225 0 1095 9045 表 3 白洋淀上游蔬菜的完全非机械化以及完全机械化种植成本
Table 3. Cost of fully mechanized and completely non-mechanized planting of vegetables in the upper stream of Baiyangdian Lake
¥∙hm–2 项目
Item蔬菜类别
Vegetables category蔬菜名称
Vegetable
name种子
Seeds灌溉Irrigation 耕地
Cultivated
land播种
Sowing收获
Harvest肥料
Fertilizer农药
Pesticide劳力
Labor总成本
Total
cost完全非机械化种植成本Completely non-mechanized planting cost 大田蔬菜
Outdoor
vegetables白菜Cabbage 1450 2750 2250 2200 7500 4000 1362 3300 24 812 萝卜Radish 1350 2850 2250 2015 9200 3800 1254 3100 25 819 南瓜Pumpkin 1050 2890 2250 2350 8000 4150 1450 3300 25 440 大葱Onion 1500 2630 2250 2550 7670 4550 1560 3000 25 710 设施蔬菜Facilities vegetables 黄瓜Cucumber 2650 3750 3125 3750 12 500 7420 3600 4658 41 453 西红柿Tomatoes 2600 3055 3125 3250 12 300 7500 3000 4575 39 405 豆角Beans 2825 3175 3125 3500 10 920 7650 3250 4820 39 265 辣椒Chili 2750 3505 3125 3620 10 620 7200 3060 3200 37 080 完全机械化
种植成本
Fully mechanized planting cost大田蔬菜Outdoor
vegetables白菜Cabbage 1450 2750 1500 1467 5000 4000 1362 3300 20 829 萝卜Radish 1350 2850 1500 1343 6133 3800 1254 3100 21 331 南瓜Pumpkin 1050 2890 1500 1567 5333 4150 1450 3300 21 240 大葱Onion 1500 2630 1500 1700 5113 4550 1560 3000 21 553 设施蔬菜Facilities vegetables 黄瓜Cucumber 2650 3750 2083 2500 8333 7420 3600 4658 34 994 西红柿Tomatoes 2600 3055 2083 2167 8200 7500 3000 4575 33 180 豆角Beans 2825 3175 2083 2333 7280 7650 3250 4820 33 416 辣椒Chili 2750 3505 2083 2413 7080 7200 3060 3200 31 291 表 4 白洋淀上游各果树的完全机械化以及完全非机械化种植成本
Table 4. Cost of fully mechanized and completely non-mechanized planting of fruit trees in the upper stream of Baiyangdian Lake
¥∙hm–2 项目
Item水果
Fruit灌溉加人工Irrigation and labor 施肥加人工Fertilization
and labor农药加人工
Pesticide
and labor剪枝
Pruning疏果
Fruit
thinning套袋加袋子
Bagging and bags收获
Harvest反光膜Reflective film 总成本
Total cost完全非机械化种植成本
Completely non-mechanized
planting cost苹果Apple 1200 5400 6350 1500 6000 8000 5400 2250 36 100 梨Pear 1170 5175 5160 1450 5600 8025 4500 31 080 葡萄Grapes 1300 7500 6500 1700 6500 9000 4800 37 300 桃Peach 1350 5700 6600 1300 5400 7500 4000 31 850 完全机械化种植成本Fully mechanized
planting cost苹果Apple 1200 5400 6350 1500 6000 8000 3600 2250 34 300 梨Pear 1170 5175 5160 1450 5600 8025 3000 29 580 葡萄Grapes 1300 7500 6500 1700 6500 9000 3200 35 700 桃Peach 1350 5700 6600 1300 5400 7500 2667 30 517 表 5 白洋淀上游平原区、山区不同种植制度的作物单位面积产量与产值
Table 5. Output value per unit area and yield per unit area of crops of different cropping systems in plain and mountainous areas in the upper stream of Baiyangdian Lake
种植制度
Cropping system价格
Price
(¥∙kg–1)平原区Plain area 山区Mountainous area 产量Yield
(×103 kg∙hm–2)产值Output value
(×103 ¥∙hm–2)产量Yield
(×103 kg∙hm–2)产值Output vale
(×103 ¥∙hm–2)小麦-玉米Wheat-maize 2.2~1.8 6.5~7.6 27.9 5.8~5.9 23.4 小麦-谷子Wheat-millet 2.2~4.0 6.5~3.9 29.7 5.8~3.4 26.5 小麦-大豆Wheat-soybean 2.2~4.5 6.5~2.3 24.8 5.8~2.1 22.3 小麦-夏甘薯Wheat-summer sweet potato 2.2~2.0 6.5~15.2 44.8 5.8~11.1 35.0 小麦-绿豆Wheat-mung bean 2.2~7.4 6.5~1.4 24.8 5.8~1.1 21.1 绿豆-鲜食玉米Mung beans-fresh maize 7.4~2.2 1.4~13.7 40.6 1.1~10.6 31.6 玉米一作Maize 1.8 7.6 13.7 5.9 10.6 棉花一作Cotton 7.6 3.2 24.2 2.3 17.6 春甘薯一作Spring sweet potato 2 31.0 61.9 22.6 45.1 谷子一作Millet 4 3.9 15.4 3.4 13.7 花生一作Peanut 5.5 4.9 26.8 4.2 23.1 高粱一作Sorghum 2.6 6.0 15.6 6.0 15.5 蔬菜Vegetables / / 99.3 / 99.3 果树Fruit / / 113.1 / 113.1 表 6 白洋淀上游不同情景下平原区、山区各作物单位面积净产值取值
Table 6. Value of net output value per unit area of crops of different cropping systems in plain and mountain areas under differentscenarios in the upper stream of Baiyangdian Lake
×103 ¥∙hm–2 种植制度
Cropping system平原区Plain area 山区Mountainous area 现状机械化情景
Current mechanization scenario未来机械化情景
Future mechanization scenario现状机械化情景
Current mechanization scenario未来机械化情景
Future mechanization scenario小麦-玉米Wheat-maize 13.9 13.9 9.4 9.4 小麦-谷子Wheat-millet 16.2 16.8 11.7 12.2 小麦-大豆Wheat-soybean 11.3 11.9 7.5 8.0 小麦-夏甘薯Wheat-summer sweet potato 17.6 18.7 5.8 6.6 小麦-绿豆Wheat-mung bean 10.8 11.4 5.8 6.3 绿豆-鲜食玉米Mung beans-fresh maize 25.4 26.5 14.1 15.0 玉米一作Maize 6.8 7.5 2.5 3.0 棉花一作Cotton 11.9 12.6 3.8 4.4 春甘薯一作Spring sweet 26.6 27.6 7.6 8.4 谷子一作Millet 10.7 11.3 7.6 8.1 花生一作Peanut 17.4 18.2 12.3 12.8 高粱一作Sorghum 9.6 10.2 8.2 8.7 蔬菜Vegetables 68.5 68.6 68.5 68.6 果树Fruit 79.9 80.0 80.0 80.0 表 7 白洋淀上游平原区不同情景下种植结构优化调整后不同种植制度的面积变化
Table 7. Changes in planting areas of different cropping systems after planting structure adjustment under different scenarios of mechanization level and irrigation in the plain area of the upstream of Baiyangdian Lake
种植制度
Cropping system面积现状
Area status (hm2)面积变化率Change rate of area (%) CS1 CS2 CS3 FS1 FS2 FS3 小麦-玉米Wheat-maize 266 117.0 –5.8 –15.9 –21.5 –6.0 –16.1 –22.0 小麦-谷子Wheat-millet 886.5 –15.9 –14.3 –8.0 –13.3 –16.1 –6.5 小麦-大豆Wheat-soybean 4923.0 –19.4 –18.2 –17.6 –17.7 –15.8 –15.7 小麦-夏甘薯Wheat-summer sweet potato 644.8 –18.0 –13.1 –7.2 –13.4 –8.9 –2.9 小麦-绿豆Wheat-mung bean 459.9 –17.1 –12.1 –8.7 –14.9 –10.3 –6.9 绿豆-鲜食玉米Mung beans-fresh maize 51.1 1.1 2.2 –3.9 6.2 7.1 2.1 玉米一作Maize 10 182.0 –19.1 –18.5 –15.6 –19.0 –18.3 –15.4 棉花一作Cotton 4633.0 –17.4 –11.5 –13.7 –14.9 –9.6 –11.9 春薯一作Spring sweet 5803.2 –19.2 3.3 –16.2 –14.5 8.5 –11.3 谷子一作Millet 98.5 –7.8 –11.3 –10.2 –5.4 –9.4 –8.5 花生一作Peanut 86 791.0 –17.8 –13.9 –14.9 –15.3 –12.7 –12.9 高粱一作Sorghum 27.0 –19.0 –17.2 –15.1 –17.1 –15.9 –13.8 蔬菜Vegetables 113 838.0 32.1 17.6 –18.0 32.6 17.7 –17.5 果树Fruit 20 140.0 –4.5 15.6 –17.6 1.1 20.0 –12.4 CS1、CS2和CS3分别代表现状机械化水平下农田灌溉用水不受限制、不超过现状以及不超过现状的80%; FS1、FS2和FS3代表未来机械化水平下农田灌溉用水不受限制、不超过现状以及不超过现状的80%。C and F represent the current and future levels of mechanization; S1, S2, and S3 represent scenarios of no-restricted irrigation water, no-exceeding the current situation and no-exceeding 80% of the current situation of irrigation water, respectively. 表 8 白洋淀上游平原区不同情景下种植结构优化调整的效益分析
Table 8. Benefits of planting structure adjustment under different scenarios of mechanization level and irrigation in the plain area of the upstream of Baiyangdian Lake
种植制度
Cropping system现状
Status quo变化率Change rate (%) CS1 CS2 CS3 FS1 FS2 FS3 经济Economic benefit 149.8×108 ¥ 12.6 5.3 –18.4 14.9 6.6 –16.9 生态Ecological benefit 11.4×108 ¥ –1.0 –8.1 –19.7 –0.4 –7.7 –19.4 用水Water consumption 15.9×108 m3 3.0 –6.3 –19.8 3.4 –5.9 –19.6 产量Crop yield 40.7×108 kg –6.8 –15.0 –20.9 –6.7 –14.9 –21.1 CS1、CS2和CS3分别代表现状机械化水平下农田灌溉用水不受限制、不超过现状以及不超过现状的80%; FS1、FS2和FS3代表未来机械化水平下农田灌溉用水不受限制、不超过现状以及不超过现状的80%。表中产量仅为粮食作物产量, 不包括经济作物以及蔬菜、果树产量。C and F represent the current and future levels of mechanization; S1, S2, and S3 represent scenarios of no-restricted irrigation water, no-exceeding the current situation and no-exceeding 80% of the current situation of irrigation water, respectively. The crop yield is the output of food crops, excluding those of cash crops, vegetables and fruit trees. 表 9 白洋淀上游山区种植结构优化调整后不同种植制度的面积变化
Table 9. Changes in planting areas of different cropping systems after planting structure adjustment under different scenarios of mechanization level and irrigation in the mountainous area of the upstream of Baiyangdian Lake
种植制度
Cropping system面积现状
Area status (hm2)面积变化率Change rate of area (%) CS1 CS2 CS3 FS1 FS2 FS3 小麦-玉米Wheat-maize 72 304.0 –6.3 –11.8 –65.9 –6.7 –11.7 –61.5 小麦-谷子Wheat-millet 1439.5 –18.4 –17.7 –14.1 –12.2 –16.8 –15.9 小麦-大豆Wheat-soybean 6141.0 –16.7 –18.4 –17.9 –17.7 –17.4 –17.8 小麦-夏甘薯Wheat-summer sweet potato 1338.4 –16.6 –14.8 –18.5 –9.1 –13.0 –14.9 小麦-绿豆Wheat-mung bean 461.7 –16.9 –11.6 –15.4 –11.7 –11.8 –15.4 绿豆-鲜食玉米Mung beans-fresh maize 51.3 0.6 1.7 3.5 –2.1 –10.2 1.1 玉米一作Maize 74 083.0 –11.0 –8.5 –18.2 –17.8 –19.4 –18.1 棉花一作Cotton 1903.0 –18.0 –16.8 –17.5 –16.4 –13.1 –13.8 春薯一作Spring sweet 12 045.6 –19.0 –18.1 –19.2 –18.2 –19.4 –18.2 谷子一作Millet 12 955.5 –16.3 –18.3 –14.4 –19.0 –16.8 –19.2 花生一作Peanut 20 964.0 –18.0 –18.8 –17.9 –17.0 –18.3 –18.2 高粱一作Sorghum 1880.0 –13.9 –16.0 –18.0 –16.3 –17.1 –18.1 蔬菜Vegetables 36 095.0 –0.4 9.7 1.5 14.1 6.0 –17.0 果树Fruit 115 925.0 18.5 14.7 13.2 16.1 13.9 17.1 CS1、CS2和CS3分别代表现状机械化水平下农田灌溉用水不受限制、不超过现状以及不超过现状的80%; FS1、FS2和FS3代表未来机械化水平下农田灌溉用水不受限制、不超过现状以及不超过现状的80%。C and F represent the current and future levels of mechanization; S1, S2, and S3 represent scenarios of no-restricted irrigation water, no-exceeding the current situation and no-exceeding 80% of the current situation of irrigation water, respectively. 表 10 白洋淀上游山区不同情景下种植结构优化调整的效益分析
Table 10. Benefits of planting structure adjustment under different scenarios of mechanization level and irrigation in themountainous area of the upstream of Baiyangdian Lake
种植制度
Cropping system现状
Status quo变化率Change rate (%) CS1 CS2 CS3 FS1 FS2 FS3 经济Economic benefit 131.4×108 ¥ 11.8 10.7 5.2 13.3 9.6 5.2 生态Ecological benefit 8.0×108 ¥ 3.7 1.7 –13.6 3.0 0.1 –12.4 用水Water consumption 5.8×108 m3 0.9 0.0 –20.0 1.7 –2.1 –20.0 产量Crop yield 17.0×108 kg –10.5 –12.4 –42.0 –12.1 –15.3 –39.7 CS1、CS2和CS3分别代表现状机械化水平下农田灌溉用水不受限制、不超过现状以及不超过现状的80%; FS1、FS2和FS3代表未来机械化水平下农田灌溉用水不受限制、不超过现状以及不超过现状的80%。表中产量仅为粮食作物产量, 不包括经济作物以及蔬菜、果树产量。C and F represent the current and future levels of mechanization; S1, S2, and S3 represent scenarios of no-restricted irrigation water, no-exceeding the current situation and no-exceeding 80% of the current situation of irrigation water, respectively. The crop yield is the output of food crops, excluding those of cash crops, vegetables and fruit trees. -
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