Spatiotemporal characteristics of heat and rainfall in the three cotton areas of China under climate warming
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摘要: 气候变化背景下，我国棉区气候资源也发生了相应的变化。研究棉花各生育期的水热时空变化特征，并提出相应技术与策略，对气候变化背景下稳定我国棉花生产具有重要意义。本文基于我国三大棉区——西北内陆（总产占全国80%以上，包括北疆亚区、南疆亚区、东疆亚区及河西走廊亚区）、黄河流域及长江流域棉区377个气象站点的逐日气象数据和50个农业气象试验站的物候期数据，分析了1961—2017年棉花各生育阶段及全生育期的生长度日（GDD）、高温度日（HDD）、降水量及其气候倾向率的时空分布，并提出应对策略。结果显示，1）1961—2017年，三大棉区GDD总体呈增加趋势，全生育期有94.16%的站点棉花GDD呈增加的趋势，各生育阶段GDD倾向率高值（除播种—出苗、吐絮—收获期）主要分布在东疆亚区的淖毛湖、哈密、伊吾及红柳河一带，河西走廊亚区的酒泉、高台及张掖一带，其次是北疆亚区。2）各生育时期HDD空间分布差异明显，现蕾—开花期、开花—吐絮期HDD总体呈增加趋势，分别有85.94%和76.40%站点棉花HDD呈现增加趋势；花铃期前后，长江下游亚区东部、南疆与北疆亚区东部、东疆亚区、河西走廊亚区西部、黄河流域棉区的特早熟亚区西北部及长江流域棉区的长江上游亚区东部棉区，棉花HDD增加趋势明显，高温风险较大；总体上高温风险最小的是北疆亚区。3）棉花全生育期降水量在长江流域的长江中游亚区、长江下游亚区与西北内陆棉区大部呈增加趋势，其他地区均呈减少趋势；棉花全生育期降水量出现北移现象，西北内陆棉区降水量的高值主要分布在北疆亚区，且增加最多。播种—出苗期，除北疆亚区降水量明显增加外，全国大部分棉区干旱风险呈增加趋势。三大棉区GDD总体上均呈现增加的趋势，有利于棉区的扩大与高产优质的潜力挖掘，但需选用具有高产潜力的品种；西北内陆棉区现蕾—吐絮期，在南疆亚区与北疆亚区东部、东疆亚区、河西走廊亚区西部棉花种植存在极端高温风险，生产上需选用抗高温品种，合理水肥运筹等措施，来应对极端高温风险的增加；黄河流域棉区和长江流域棉区北部，干旱风险增加，生产上应采用适当的抗旱品种，采取配套抗旱栽培管理措施来降低气候变化带来的干旱风险。Abstract: Considerable climate change has occurred across the cotton planting area of China in the past few decades. Thus, it is important to study the temporal and spatial changes in water and heat resources during each growth period of the cotton-growing season and to propose corresponding technologies and strategies to stabilize the cotton production of China. Based on observational data from 377 meteorological stations and 50 agometeorological stations, this study analyzed the climatic trend rates of growth degree days (GDD), heat degree days (HDD) and rainfall from 1961 to 2017 in sowing-emergence, emergence-squaring, squaring-flowering, flowering-boll opening, boll opening-harvesting, and the entire growth period of cotton in the Northwest Inland (total cotton output accounts for > 80% of the country, including the northern Xinjiang subregion, southern Xinjiang subregion, eastern Xinjiang subregion, and the Hexi Corridor subregion), Yellow River Basin, and Yangtze River Basin cotton areas from 1961 to 2017. This study also recommended strategies to cope with the climate change-induced variations. The results showed that GDD generally increased over the past 56 years; during the entire growth period of cotton, 94.16% of the sites recorded increased cotton GDD. High GDD values at each growing stage were primarily distributed in the Naomao Lake, Hami, Yiwu, and Hongliuhe areas of the eastern Xinjiang subregion and in Jiuquan, Gaotai, and Zhangye of the Hexi Corridor subregion (the exception being the sowing-emergence and boll opening-harvest stages) followed by the northern Xinjiang subregion. The spatial distribution of HDD during each growth period markedly differed. During the squaring-flowering and flowering-boll opening periods, HDD tended to increase. Among all sites, 85.94% and 76.40% recorded increased cotton HDD, respectively. During the flowering period, cotton HDD increased, and there was a high-temperature risk in the east of lower reaches of Yangtze River subregion, east of the southern and northern Xinjiang subregion, the west of the Hexi Corridor subregion, the northwest of the extra-early maturing subregion of the Yellow River Basin, and in the eastern part of the upper reaches of the Yangtze River subregion. Overall, the lowest risk of high temperature was in the northern Xinjiang subregion. Rainfall during the entire growth period increased in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River in the Yangtze River Basin and in most of the Northwest Inland. In other regions, rainfall tended to decrease. During the entire growth period of cotton, precipitation moved northward, and high precipitation in the Northwest Inland cotton area was primarily distributed in northern Xinjiang. During the sowing-emergence period, the drought risk in most cotton areas increased, except for areas with increased precipitation (the northern Xinjiang subregion). The GDD in the three major cotton areas increased overall, which benefited cotton area expansion and led to high yield and good quality. However, varieties with high yield potential should be selected. During the squaring-boll opening period of cotton in the Northwest Inland cotton area, there was a high-temperature risk in cotton planting in the eastern parts of the southern and northern Xinjiang subregions, the eastern Xinjiang subregion, and the western Hexi Corridor subregion. High-temperature resistant varieties and reasonable water and fertilizer management measures must be employed to cope with increased high-temperature risks. Drought risk is increasing in the cotton areas of the Yellow River Basin and the northern Yangtze River Basin; therefore, appropriate drought-resistant varieties and management measures should be adopted to reduce risks caused by climate change.
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图 1 我国三大主要植棉区域及其范围内农业气象观测站点的空间分布
Figure 1. Spatial distribution of the three major cotton planting areas and their agrometeoroglical stations in China
图 2 1961—2017年我国西北内陆、黄河及长江流域主要植棉区棉花播种—出苗(A)、出苗—现蕾(B)、现蕾—开花(C)、开花—吐絮(D)、吐絮—收获(E)及全生育期(F)生长度日(GDD)均值的空间分布
Figure 2. Spatial distributions of average accumulated growing degree days (GDD) in the main cotton planting areas of Northwest Inland, Yellow River Basin and Yangtze River Basin in China during 1961—2017 at sowing−emergence (A), emergence−squaring (B), squaring−flowering (C), flowering−boll opening (D), boll opening−harvest (E) periods, and the whole growing period (F)
图 3 1961—2017年我国西北内陆、黄河及长江流域主要植棉区棉花播种—出苗(A)、出苗—现蕾(B)、现蕾—开花(C)、开花—吐絮(D)、吐絮—收获(E)及全生育期(F)生长度日气候倾向率(GDD trends)的空间分布
Figure 3. Spatial distributions of climatic trend rates of accumulated growing degree days (GDD trends) in the main cotton planting areas of Northwest Inland, Yellow River Basin and Yangtze River Basin in China during 1961−2017 at sowing−emergence (A), emergence−squaring (B), squaring−flowering (C), flowering−boll opening (D), boll opening−harvest (E) periods, and the whole growing period (F)
图 4 1961—2017年我国西北内陆、黄河及长江流域主要植棉区棉花播种—出苗(A)、出苗—现蕾(B)、现蕾—开花(C)、开花—吐絮(D)、吐絮—收获(E)及全生育期(F)高温度日(HDD)的均值空间分布
Figure 4. Spatial distributions of average accumulated heat degree days (HDD) in the main cotton planting areas of Northwest Inland, Yellow River Basin and Yangtze River Basin in China during 1961−2017 at sowing−emergence (A), emergence−squaring (B), squaring−flowering (C), flowering−boll opening (D), boll opening−harvest (E) periods, and the whole growing period (F)
图 5 1961—2017年我国西北内陆、黄河及长江流域主要植棉区棉花播种—出苗(A)、出苗—现蕾(B)、现蕾—开花(C)、开花—吐絮(D)、吐絮—收获(E)及全生育期(F)高温度日气候倾向率(HDD trends)的空间分布
Figure 5. Spatial distributions of climatic trend rates of accumulated heat degree days (HDD trends) in the main cotton planting areas of Northwest Inland, Yellow River Basin and Yangtze River Basin in China during 1961−2017 at sowing−emergence (A), emergence−squaring (B), squaring−flowering (C), flowering−boll opening (D), boll opening−harvest (E) periods, and the whole growing period (F)
图 6 1961—2017年我国西北内陆、黄河及长江流域主要植棉区棉花播种—出苗(A)、出苗—现蕾(B)、现蕾—开花(C)、开花—吐絮(D)、吐絮—收获(E)及全生育期(F)降水量(Rainfall)均值的空间分布
Figure 6. Spatial distributions of average rainfall (mm) in the main cotton planting areas of Northwest Inland, Yellow River Basin and Yangtze River Basin in China during 1961−2017 at sowing−emergence (A), emergence−squaring (B), squaring−flowering (C), flowering−boll opening (D), boll opening−harvest (E) periods, and the whole growing period (F)
图 7 1961—2017年我国西北内陆、黄河及长江流域主要植棉区棉花播种—出苗(A)、出苗—现蕾(B)、现蕾—开花(C)、开花—吐絮(D)、吐絮—收获(E)及全生育期(F)降水量气候倾向率(rainfall)的空间分布
Figure 7. Spatial distributions of climatic trend rates of rainfall (rainfall trend, mm∙10a−1) in the main cotton planting areas of Northwest Inland, Yellow River Basin and Yangtze River Basin in China during 1961−2017 at sowing−emergence (A), emergence−squaring (B), squaring−flowering (C), flowering−boll opening (D), boll opening−harvest (E) periods, and the whole growing period (F)
表 1 1961—2017年我国西北内陆、黄河及长江流域主要植棉区棉花现蕾—开花期、开花—吐絮期和全生育期生长度日(GDD)、高温度日(HDD)与降水量观测趋势统计
Table 1. Statistics of observed trends of growing degree days (GDD), heat degree days (HDD) and rainfall during squaring–flowering period, flowering–boll opening period and whole growing period of cotton in the main cotton planting areas in China from 1961 to 2017
棉花生育阶段
Growth period of cotton棉区
Cotton planting
arean GDD趋势Trend in GDD HDD趋势Trend in HDD 降雨趋势Trend in precipitation N N_S P P_S N N_S P P_S N N_S P P_S 现蕾—开花期
Squaring–
flowering periodⅠ 203 22 8 181 154 33 4 170 92 75 58 128 115 Ⅱ 139 1 0 138 133 19 3 120 39 67 44 72 36 Ⅲ1 7 0 0 7 5 0 0 7 1 0 0 7 0 Ⅲ2 12 1 0 11 6 0 0 12 1 2 0 7 0 Ⅲ3 9 0 0 9 7 1 0 8 1 1 0 11 0 Ⅲ4 7 0 0 7 7 0 0 7 0 1 0 6 0 总计Total 377 24 8 353 312 53 7 324 134 146 102 231 151 开花—吐絮期
Flowering–
boll opening periodⅠ 203 84 65 119 110 64 47 139 104 56 52 147 137 Ⅱ 139 17 11 122 117 19 8 120 66 113 97 26 17 Ⅲ1 7 0 0 7 7 0 0 7 3 2 0 5 0 Ⅲ2 12 2 2 10 7 5 0 7 2 1 0 11 2 Ⅲ3 9 0 0 9 7 1 0 8 1 1 0 8 0 Ⅲ4 7 0 0 7 7 0 0 7 0 3 0 4 0 总计Total 377 103 78 274 255 89 55 288 176 176 149 201 156 全生育期
Whole growing periodⅠ 203 16 15 187 181 35 30 168 142 82 77 121 119 Ⅱ 139 5 2 134 133 26 16 113 72 101 92 38 31 Ⅲ1 7 0 0 7 7 0 0 7 4 0 0 7 1 Ⅲ2 12 1 1 11 10 4 0 8 5 0 0 12 3 Ⅲ3 9 0 0 9 9 1 1 8 1 1 1 8 4 Ⅲ4 7 0 0 7 7 0 0 7 2 1 0 6 1 总计Total 377 22 18 355 347 66 47 311 226 185 170 192 159 n表示某一区域的台站总数。N表示趋势为负的站数。N_S表示具有显著负趋势的台站数。P表示趋势为正的站数。P_S表示具有显著正趋势的台站数。各棉区位置及名称见图 1。“n” represents the total number of stations in an area. “N” represents the number of stations with a negative trend. “N_S” represents the number of stations with a significant negative trend. “P” represents the number of stations with a positive trend. “P_S” represents the number of stations with a significant positive trend. The name and location of each cotton planting area is shown in the figure 1. 
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