Regional differences, dynamic evolution, and convergence of the carbon compensation rate of planting industry in China
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摘要: 农业碳排放阻碍绿色农业转型, 探索种植业碳补偿率区域差异、动态演进及收敛性, 可为低碳农业良性发展提供有益指导。本文同时考虑碳源和碳汇, 测算2002—2018年中国31省、市、自治区种植业碳补偿率, 采用Dagum基尼系数分解法考察地区差异, 采用非参数估计中的核密度估计动态演进过程, 借助σ收敛、绝对β收敛及条件β收敛检视收敛性特征。结果表明: 1)种植业碳补偿率整体相对差异扩大趋势明显。东部地区相对差异扩大, 中部地区和西部地区变化较小; 东—西部、东—中部地区之间增加, 中—西部地区之间减小; 地区间差距是造成种植业碳补偿率差异的主要原因。2)中国种植业碳补偿率整体呈逐年增大的变动态势, 碳补偿率高值省份有所增多, 省域种植业碳补偿率差异有先减后增的趋势。东部各省种植业碳补偿率在逐渐上升, 绝对差距有所减少, 从两极分化演变为单极化; 中部各省种植业碳补偿率在逐渐上升, 绝对差距有所减小; 西部各省种植业碳补偿率变化较为稳定。3)全国及东、西部地区的种植业碳补偿率不存在σ收敛, 而中部地区不甚明显; 全国、东、中及西部地区绝对和条件β收敛均显著。本文的结论强调, 中国种植业碳补偿率的区域异质性凸显, 其时序变化趋势总体上升; 省域间的“追赶效应”显现, 地区间碳补偿率增长的趋同态势明显。因此, 合理制定区域农业绿色发展策略, 积极发挥区域减排潜力是提高种植业碳补偿率的关键。Abstract: Global warming is an increasingly serious problem. Carbon emissions from agriculture had hindered its transition to green agriculture, and carbon emissions from the planting industry cannot be ignored. Reducing the regional differences and clarifying dynamic evolution and convergence of the carbon compensation rates in the planting industry are conducive to the benign development of low-carbon agriculture. At present, few studies consider both agricultural carbon sources and carbon sinks, and an in-depth analysis of the carbon compensation rate of the planting industry is lacking. Existing studies on the agricultural carbon compensation rate focus only on the spatial effect of agricultural carbon but do not effectively analyze the sources and convergence of regional differences in the carbon compensation rate of the planting industry. Therefore, this study considered both the carbon sources and the carbon sinks and estimated the carbon compensation rate of the planting industry in 31 Chinese provinces (municipalities and autonomous districts) from 2002 to 2018. The Dagum Gini coefficient decomposition method was used to measure and decompose the regional differences, the dynamic evolution process of kernel density with non-parametric estimation was investigated, and the σ-convergence, absolute β-convergence, and conditional β-convergence models were used to test the convergence characteristics of the carbon compensation rate. The results were as follows: (1) The overall relative difference in the carbon compensation rate of the planting industry tended to expand. The relative differences in the eastern region expanded, while the relative differences in the central and western regions showed only little change. The relative differences between the eastern and western regions and the eastern and central regions increased, whereas that between the central and western regions decreased. The regional differences were the main reasons for the differences in the carbon compensation rates of the planting industry. (2) The carbon compensation rate of the planting industry in China increased annually, and the number of provinces with high carbon compensation rates increased. The provincial difference in carbon compensation rate first decreased and then increased. The carbon compensation rate in the eastern provinces increased gradually, and the inter-provincial absolute gap decreased, changing from polarization to unipolarization. The carbon compensation rate in the central provinces increased gradually, and the absolute gap decreased. The carbon compensation rate in the western provinces was relatively stable and showed little change. (3) There was no σ-convergence in the carbon compensation rate of the planting industry in the whole country and the eastern and western regions, but it was not obviously observed in the central region. The absolute and conditional β-convergences were significant in the whole country and the eastern, central, and western regions. The results of this study emphasize that regional heterogeneity in the carbon compensation rate of China’s planting industry is prominent and that the temporal trend of carbon compensation rate is generally increasing. The “catch-up effect” among provinces and the convergence trend of the carbon compensation rate growth among regions are apparent. In the future, it will be important to improve the carbon compensation rate of the planting industry to better formulate a green development strategy for regional agriculture and actively reduce regional emissions.
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表 1 主要农作物碳吸收率、平均含水量、经济系数和单位碳吸收量
Table 1. Carbon absorption rates, average water contents, economic coefficients and carbon absorption rates of major crops
作物种类
Crop species主要农作物
Main crop碳吸收率
Carbon absorption rate平均含水率
Average moisture content (%)经济系数
Economic coefficient粮食作物
Food crops水稻 Rice 0.414 12 0.45 小麦 Wheat 0.485 12 0.40 玉米 Corn 0.471 13 0.40 高粱 Sorghum 0.450 13 0.35 谷子 Millet 0.450 14 0.40 薯类 Tubers 0.423 70 0.70 豆类 Beans 0.450 13 0.34 经济作物
Grops棉花 Cotton 0.450 8 0.10 油菜籽 Rapeseed 0.450 10 0.25 花生 Peanut 0.450 10 0.43 甘蔗 Sugarcane 0.450 50 0.50 甜菜 Beetroots 0.407 75 0.70 烟草 Tobacco 0.450 85 0.55 园艺作物
Garden crops蔬菜 Vegetables 0.450 90 0.60 瓜果 Fruits 0.450 90 0.70 表 2 2002—2018年中国省域种植业碳补偿率
Table 2. Carbon compensation rate of crops production in each province (city, autonomous region) of China from 2002 to 2018
区域
Region省份
Province (city, autonomous region)年份 Year 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 东部 East 北京 Beijing 5.56 5.51 6.68 7.28 6.98 7.38 5.70 5.73 4.80 天津 Tianjin 6.33 6.58 6.92 6.73 6.75 6.74 7.03 7.56 11.37 河北 Hebei 6.50 5.50 5.83 6.80 6.95 7.45 7.54 8.26 9.08 上海 Shanghai 4.27 4.08 4.02 3.90 3.82 4.25 4.03 3.81 4.33 江苏 Jiangsu 8.70 8.84 9.07 9.25 9.05 9.20 9.40 9.30 9.83 浙江 Zhejiang 4.04 3.81 3.98 3.64 3.57 3.58 3.49 3.52 3.09 辽宁 Liaoning 7.60 8.68 8.26 8.33 7.32 8.30 6.80 8.13 9.19 福建 Fujian 4.31 4.30 4.12 3.91 3.99 4.07 4.16 4.13 3.55 山东 Shandong 6.62 7.41 7.70 8.28 8.15 8.45 8.62 8.91 10.20 广东 Guangdong 7.88 7.34 8.05 7.32 7.55 8.05 8.10 8.17 7.78 海南 Hainan 7.60 8.12 7.03 6.78 5.33 5.92 5.53 4.52 4.16 平均 Mean 6.31 6.38 6.51 6.56 6.32 6.67 6.40 6.55 7.04 中部 Central 山西 Shanxi 6.13 7.25 7.54 7.22 7.27 8.07 8.32 8.22 8.76 吉林 Jilin 11.29 11.91 12.71 12.17 11.20 12.46 12.51 12.75 12.82 黑龙江 Heilongjiang 7.40 7.24 6.83 8.08 8.56 9.13 9.49 9.09 11.48 安徽 Anhui 7.87 7.78 8.16 8.28 8.07 8.47 8.64 8.94 10.04 江西 Jiangxi 6.66 6.88 7.27 7.31 7.12 7.53 7.68 7.65 8.18 河南 Henan 9.02 9.11 10.32 10.73 10.47 10.57 10.45 10.75 12.18 湖北 Hubei 7.07 7.70 7.83 7.79 7.80 8.00 8.23 8.02 8.69 湖南 Hunan 7.43 7.46 7.99 7.90 7.93 8.10 7.92 8.00 8.30 平均 Mean 7.86 8.17 8.58 8.69 8.55 9.04 9.16 9.18 10.06 西部 Weast 内蒙古 Inner Mongolia 6.30 6.36 6.67 7.47 7.01 7.81 7.94 7.33 9.55 广西 Guangxi 13.43 13.70 16.67 19.35 17.09 17.95 18.41 17.08 17.45 重庆 Chongqing 6.55 6.98 6.27 7.41 7.30 7.01 7.05 7.23 6.92 四川 Sichuan 7.90 8.02 7.31 8.05 8.18 8.18 8.30 8.48 8.98 贵州 Guizhou 6.19 6.67 6.80 6.29 6.09 5.68 5.69 5.72 5.39 云南 Yunnan 8.30 8.04 8.06 8.20 7.39 8.02 8.01 7.67 8.37 西藏 Tibet 5.21 5.16 5.12 4.83 4.15 3.79 3.46 3.26 3.49 陕西 Shaanxi 6.31 6.83 7.33 7.33 7.03 7.27 6.99 7.03 6.97 甘肃 Gansu 4.43 4.55 4.33 4.23 4.20 4.33 4.27 4.07 4.81 青海 Qinghai 5.45 5.69 5.18 6.29 5.71 5.42 5.03 4.78 4.71 宁夏 Ningxia 6.15 5.80 6.20 5.95 6.06 6.39 6.68 6.64 6.85 新疆 Xinjiang 8.27 8.33 8.32 9.19 8.96 9.97 8.82 8.52 9.71 平均 Mean 7.04 7.18 7.35 7.88 7.43 7.65 7.55 7.32 7.77 鉴于数据的可获得性, 未包括港澳台地区。In view of the availability of the data, Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan are not included. 表 3 2002—2018年中国种植业碳补偿率基尼系数及其分解
Table 3. Gini coefficient and decomposition of carbon compensation rate of crops production of China from 2002 to 2018
年份
Year全国
Nation地区内 Within the region 地区间 Interregional 贡献率 Contribution rate (%) 东部
East中部
Central西部
West东部—中部
East-Central东部—西部
East-West中部—西部
Central-West地区内
Within the region地区间
Interregional超变密度
Hypervariable density2002 0.144 0.136 0.100 0.154 0.133 0.150 0.171 32.045 32.105 35.851 2003 0.147 0.151 0.100 0.144 0.145 0.157 0.179 31.603 36.380 32.017 2004 0.151 0.157 0.089 0.154 0.144 0.160 0.158 31.570 34.580 33.850 2005 0.151 0.153 0.102 0.148 0.150 0.157 0.165 31.339 38.818 29.843 2006 0.165 0.148 0.106 0.183 0.147 0.171 0.173 31.543 35.130 33.327 2007 0.177 0.167 0.094 0.205 0.152 0.196 0.166 32.352 33.207 34.441 2008 0.173 0.152 0.096 0.206 0.146 0.188 0.162 32.150 34.446 33.404 2009 0.168 0.150 0.083 0.202 0.139 0.184 0.144 32.065 33.719 34.216 2010 0.171 0.156 0.086 0.199 0.147 0.185 0.161 31.469 37.530 31.001 2011 0.182 0.157 0.089 0.223 0.147 0.197 0.150 31.639 35.003 33.359 2012 0.179 0.155 0.088 0.220 0.146 0.195 0.149 31.683 35.681 32.636 2013 0.189 0.164 0.094 0.233 0.154 0.206 0.149 31.779 34.741 33.480 2014 0.190 0.168 0.086 0.224 0.162 0.203 0.149 30.826 39.833 29.341 2015 0.190 0.177 0.090 0.218 0.166 0.204 0.147 30.767 39.627 29.606 2016 0.191 0.180 0.091 0.218 0.164 0.206 0.160 30.872 37.040 32.087 2017 0.217 0.224 0.111 0.218 0.203 0.228 0.160 29.702 40.566 29.732 2018 0.215 0.233 0.096 0.227 0.196 0.236 0.156 30.693 34.784 34.523 均值 Mean 0.176 0.166 0.094 0.199 0.155 0.190 0.159 31.417 36.070 32.513 表 4 2002—2018年中国不同区域种植业碳补偿率σ收敛系数
Table 4. σ convergence coefficient of carbon compensation rate of crops production in different regions of China from 2002 to 2018
年份 Year 全国 Nation 东部 East 中部 Central 西部 West 2002 0.2805 0.2533 0.2069 0.3323 2003 0.2805 0.2847 0.2076 0.2953 2004 0.2907 0.2897 0.2023 0.3296 2005 0.2983 0.2824 0.2262 0.3277 2006 0.3412 0.2776 0.2292 0.4307 2007 0.3832 0.3113 0.1938 0.4936 2008 0.3767 0.2938 0.2054 0.4924 2009 0.3544 0.2824 0.1666 0.4685 2010 0.3507 0.2942 0.1746 0.4526 2011 0.3647 0.2994 0.1880 0.4839 2012 0.3633 0.2920 0.1849 0.4809 2013 0.3807 0.3074 0.1991 0.5057 2014 0.3834 0.3089 0.1776 0.5034 2015 0.3731 0.3294 0.1833 0.4743 2016 0.3746 0.3399 0.1901 0.4782 2017 0.4034 0.4217 0.2213 0.4598 2018 0.3968 0.4365 0.1854 0.4702 表 5 2002—2018年中国种植业碳补偿率绝对β收敛结果
Table 5. Absolutely β convergence results of carbon compensation rate of crops prodcution in China from 2002 to 2018
变量 Variable 全国 Nation 东部 East 中部 Central 西部 West β −0.292***(−7.931) −0.140**(−2.449) −0.442***(−5.060) −0.400***(−6.252) 常数项 Constant term 0.671***(9.335) 0.319***(3.011) 1.006***(5.599) 0.927***(7.410) 样本量 Sample size 496 176 128 192 R2 0.0307 0.0648 0.1764 0.0568 ***、**和*分别表示在P<1%、P<5%和P<10%水平上显著。括号内为t统计量。***, ** and * represent significance at the levels of P<1%, P<5%, and P<10%, respectively. Inside parentheses is the t statistic. 表 6 2002—2018年中国种植业碳补偿率条件β收敛结果
Table 6. Conditions β convergence results of crops prodcution in China from 2002 to 2018
变量 Variable 全国 Nation 东部 East 中部 Central 西部 West β −0.413*** (−10.401) −0.409***(−5.813) −0.791***(−7.986) −0.445***(−6.496) 农业财政支出 Agricultural financial expenditure 0.003(0.932) 0.012**(2.193) −0.001(−0.206) −0.000(−0.051) 城镇化率 Urbanization rate −0.000(−0.201) 0.003(1.574) 0.000(0.040) −0.002(−0.700) 产业结构 Industrial structure 0.009***(3.395) 0.007(1.015) 0.011***(2.417) 0.003(0.351) 农业机械化 Agriculture mechanization 0.012(0.958) 0.027(0.582) 0.075***(3.387) 0.016(0.786) 农户文化程度 Farmer education level −0.112(−0.933) 0.089(0.367) −0.010(−0.036) −0.058 (−0.285) 劳动力非农转移 Non-agricultural transfer of labor force −0.047* (−1.669) −0.134** (−2.467) −0.014(−0.484) −0.051 (−0.602) 农业经营规模 Agricultural operation scale 0.247***(5.381) 0.399***(6.229) 0.078(0.619) 0.125(1.000) 农业经济发展水平 Agricultural economic development −0.096** (−2.476) −0.280***(−3.841) 0.076(0.988) 0.029(0.289) 常数项 Constant term 1.908***(5.236) 3.037***(3.966) 0.552(0.760) 1.306(1.444) 样本量 Sample size 496 176 128 192 R2 0.0193 0.0080 0.1068 0.0440 ***、**和*分别表示在P<1%、P<5%和P<10%水平上显著。括号内为 t 统计量。***, ** and * represent significance at the levels of P<1%, P<5%, and P<10%, respectively. Inside parentheses is the t statistic. -
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