Influencing factors of farmers’ willingness to adopt rice-crayfish co-culture and their heterogeneity
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摘要: 近年来, 水稻-小龙虾共作(稻虾共作)作为一种生态农业模式受到大力推广, 农户作为直接生产决策者, 厘清其采纳意愿及影响机理, 对稻虾共作模式的科学推广和可持续发展具有重要意义。本研究基于江苏省5市603个农户的调查数据, 采用计划行为理论和有序Logistic模型, 探讨农户稻虾共作模式采纳意愿的影响因素和异质性。结果表明: 1)样本中有56.88%的农户愿意采纳稻虾共作模式, 且收益预期是关键影响因素; 2)行为态度、主观规范和知觉行为控制均显著影响农户稻虾共作模式的采纳意愿; 3)不同限定条件下, 农户稻虾共作模式采纳意愿的影响因素具有异质性, 具体来说, 基础设施完备和兼业化对高预期收益农户采纳意愿的影响更强, 给予补贴、受邻里效应影响越小的农户采纳意愿越强, 同时, 受邻里影响小的农户对技术培训及学习容易程度要求越高, 给予补贴和提高农技部门指导效果可以提高基础设施不完备地区农户的采纳意愿, 邻里效应和兼业化对技术学习难易有负向影响, 而收益预期、环境预期能激励农户采纳生态农业模式。据此, 提出政府部门应加强技术培训力度和指导效果、完善基础设施、加快经营主体培育、探索差异化激励政策等政策建议。Abstract: In recent years, rice-crayfish co-culture has been vigorously promoted as an ecological agricultural mode. As a direct production decision-maker, farmers’ adoption intention and its influence mechanism should be clarified for the scientific promotion and sustainable development of rice-crayfish co-culture. Based on the questionnaire survey and on-the-spot interviews data of 603 farmers in five cities of Jiangsu Province, this study explored the influencing factors and their heterogeneity of farmers’ willingness to adopt the rice-crayfish co-culture mode using the theory of planned behavior and ordered logistic model. Results show that: 1) 56.88% of the farmers in the sample were willing to adopt the rice-crayfish co-culture mode, with income expectation as the key influencing factor. 2) Behavioral attitude, subjective norm, and perceived behavioral control had significant effects on farmers’ willingness to adopt the rice-crayfish co-culture mode. The order of influence was as follows: perceptual behavior control > behavior attitude > subjective norm. 3) Under different qualifications, the factors influencing farmers’ willingness to adopt the rice-crayfish co-culture mode were heterogeneous. Specifically, complete infrastructure and part-time industrialization had a stronger influence on the willingness to adopt this mode of farmers with a high expected income. The farmers who were given subsidies and less affedcted by neighborhood had a stronger willingness to adopt the rice-crayfish co-culture mode. Farmers who were less influenced by the neighborhood had higher requirements for technical training and easeness of learning. The neighborhood effect, guidance of the agricultural technology department, difficulty of technical learning, and level of education had a significant positive effect on the willingness of farmers who participated in the technical training. Distributing subsidies and improving the guidance effect from agricultural technology departments could increase farmers’ willingness to adopt this mode in areas with incomplete infrastructure. Neighborhood effect and part-time employment had a negative impact on the difficulty of technology training, while the income expectation and environmental expectation stimulated farmers to adopt the rice-crayfish co-culture mode. Based on these results, the following policy recommendations were put forward: firstly, the government should strengthen the technical training and guidance effect; second, farmland infrastructure should be improved; third, new agricultural management subjects should be fostered quickly; and finally, differentiated incentive and guidance policies should be formulated according to farmer types.
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Key words:
- Rice-crayfish co-culture mode /
- Farmers /
- Planned behavior theory /
- Adoption willingness /
- Heterogeneity
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表 1 样本农户的基本情况
Table 1. Basic information of the sample farmers
指标
Index分类
Category频数
Frequency占比
Percent (%)指标
Index分类
Category频数
Frequency占比
Percent (%)性别 Gender 男 Male 447 74.13 耕地面积
Area of arable land (hm2)<2.00 352 58.37 女 Female 156 25.87 2.00~13.33 192 31.84 年龄 Age ≤30 9 1.49 >13.33 59 9.78 31~45 104 17.25 受教育程度
Education文盲 Illiterate 105 17.41 46~60 333 55.22 小学 Primary school 155 25.70 >60 157 26.04 初中 Junior middle school 204 33.83 新型农业经营主体
New agricultural business entities是 Yes 254 42.12 高中或中专
High school or secondary school122 20.23 否 No 349 57.88 大专及以上 College or above 17 2.82 表 2 农户稻虾共作模式采纳意愿模型变量赋值及描述性统计
Table 2. Assignment of model variables and descriptive statistics of farmers’ willingness to adopt the rice-crayfish co-culture
变量类型
Variable category变量名称
Variable name定义与赋值
Definition and assignment均值
Mean标准差
Standard deviation被解释变量
Independent variable稻虾共作模式采纳意愿
Adoption willingness愿意=1; 不愿意=2
Willing=1, unwilling=21.43 0.50 行为态度
Attitude toward the behavior环境预期
Environmental expectations稻虾共作模式是否减少环境污染: 是=1; 否=2
Does the rice-crayfish co-culture reduce environmental pollution? Yes=1, no=21.24 0.43 收益预期
Earnings expectations稻虾共作模式是否增加收益: 是=1; 否=2
Does the rice-crayfish co-culture increase income? Yes=1, no=21.25 0.43 风险预期
Risk expectations稻虾共作模式是否存在环境风险: 是=1; 否=2
Does the rice-crayfish co-culture cause environmental risks? Yes=1, no=21.60 0.49 主观规范
Subjective norm邻里效应
Neighborhood effect周边村民对您的稻虾共作模式采纳意愿是否有影响: 是=1, 否=2
Does the neighbourhood have any influence on your willingness to adopt the rice-crayfish co-culture? Yes=1, no=21.43 0.50 政府宣传
Government propaganda政府对稻虾共作模式是否进行宣传: 是=1; 否=2
Does the government publicize the rice-crayfish co-culture? Yes=1, no=21.53 0.50 农技部门指导
Agricultural technology department guidance农技部门是否开展稻虾共作技术指导: 是=1; 否=2
Does agricultural technology department conduct technical guidance on rice-crayfish co-culture? Yes=1, no=21.33 0.47 知觉行为控制
Perceived behavioral control政府补贴
Policy subsidy政府对采纳稻虾共作模式是否有补贴: 是=1; 否=2
Does the government subsidize the adoption of rice-crayfish co-culture? Yes=1, no=21.27 0.44 技术培训
Technical training是否参加过稻虾共作相关技术培训: 是=1; 否=2
Do you participate in any technical training of rice-crayfish co-culture? Yes=1, no=21.42 0.50 基础设施完备
Complete infrastructure稻虾共作农田基础设施是否完备: 是=1; 否=2
Does the infrastructure of rice-crayfish co-culture farmland complete? Yes=1, no=21.24 0.43 技术学习难易程度
Difficulty of technical learning稻虾共作技术学习是否容易: 非常难=1, 较难=2, 一般=3, 较容易=4, 非常容易=5
Is it easy to learn rice-crayfish co-culture technology? Very difficult=1, difficult=2, general=3, easy=4, very easy=53.28 0.93 控制变量
Control variable性别 Gender 男=1, 女=2 Male=1, female=2 1.26 0.44 年龄 Age 实际年龄(岁) Actual age (years) 54.78 10.77 受教育程度
Education文盲=1, 小学=2, 初中=3, 高中或中专=4, 大专及以上=5
Illiterate=1, primary school=2, junior middle school=3, high school or secondary school=4, college or above=52.65 1.07 家庭耕地面积
Area of arable land实际耕地面积
Actual arable land area (hm2)96.72 126.39 是否兼业
Concurrent business是=1, 否=2
Yes=1, no=21.52 0.50 新型农业经营主体
New agricultural business entities是=1, 否=2
Yes=1, no=21.58 0.49 表 3 农户稻虾共作模式采纳意愿模型不同解释变量的Binary Logistic回归模型的估计结果
Table 3. Assignment of model variables and descriptive statistics of farmers’ willingness to adopt the rice-crayfish co-culture
变量类型
Variable category变量名称
Variable name回归系数
Regression
coefficient标准误差
Standard
errorWald检验
Wald test显著性
Significant优势比
Advantage
ratio行为态度
Attitude toward the behavior环境预期 Environmental expectations 0.152 0.261 0.582 0.560 1.164 收益预期 Earnings expectations 1.092*** 0.258 4.226 0.000 2.979 风险预期 Risk expectations −0.124 0.229 −0.542 0.588 0.883 主观规范
Subjective norm邻里效应 Neighborhood effect −0.784*** 0.237 −3.305 0.001 0.456 政府宣传 Government propaganda −0.114 0.243 −0.467 0.640 0.892 农技部门指导 Agricultural technology department guidance −0.321 0.251 −1.277 0.202 0.726 知觉行为控制
Perceived behavioral control政府补贴 Policy subsidy 0.539* 0.283 1.906 0.057 1.714 技术培训 Technical training 1.522*** 0.226 6.733 0.000 4.581 基础设施完备 Complete infrastructure 0.930** 1.129*** 0.297 3.799 0.000 技术学习难易程度 Difficulty of technical learning 0.650*** −0.309** 0.134 −2.301 0.021 控制变量
Control variable性别 Gender −0.034 0.265 −0.129 0.897 0.966 年龄 Age 0.004 0.011 0.377 0.706 1.004 受教育程度 Education −0.284** 0.116 −2.455 0.014 0.753 家庭耕地面积 Area of arable land −0.001 −0.001 0.001 −0.723 0.469 是否兼业 Concurrent business −0.588** 0.235 −2.506 0.012 0.555 新型农业经营主体 New agricultural business entities 1.768*** 1.254*** 0.246 5.101 0.000 ***、**和*分别表示在P<1%、P<5%和P<10%水平上显著。***, ** and * represent the significance in the levels of P<1%, P<5% and P<10%, respectively. 表 4 不同限定条件下农户稻虾共作模式采纳意愿影响因素异质性
Table 4. Heterogeneity of farmers’ willingness to adopt the rice-crayfish co-culture mode under different conditions
变量类型
Variable
category变量名称
Variable
name能增加收益
Income
increase未增加收益
No increase
in income受邻里效应
影响大
High
neighborhood
effect受邻里效应
影响小
Low
neighborhood
effect给予补贴
Grant
subsidies未给予补贴
No
subsidy参加培训
Training未参加培训
No training基础设施
完备
Complete
infrastructure基础设施
不完备
Incomplete
infrastructure技术学习
较容易
Technical
learning
is easier技术学习
较难
Technical
learning is
more difficult行为态度
Attitude toward
the behavior环境预期
Environmental
expectations1.96*** 收益预期
Earnings
expectations— — 1.249*** 1.091*** 0.836*** 2.100*** 0.935*** 1.325*** 0.899*** 1.755** 1.184*** 风险预期
Risk expectations1.622*** 主观规范
Subjective
norm邻里效应
Neighborhood effect−0.647** −1.394** — — −1.126*** −1.077*** −0.568** −1.381** −2.192*** 政府宣传
Government
propaganda农技部门指导
Agricultural
technology
department
guidance−0.801** −1.407** 知觉行为控制
Perceived
behavioral
control政府补贴
Policy subsidy1.986** 1.344*** — — 2.464*** 技术培训
Technical training1.443*** 2.459*** 1.229*** 1.956*** 1.455*** 1.922*** — — 1.415*** 2.245*** 1.962*** 基础设施完备
Complete infrastructure0.981*** 2.307*** 2.747*** 1.241*** 0.981** — — 1.430*** 技术学习难易程度
Difficulty of
technical learning−0.889*** −0.727*** 0.689* −0.630*** −0.562*** — — 控制变量
Control variable性别
Gender年龄 Age −0.070* 受教育程度 Education −0.718** −0.470*** −1.113*** −0.446*** −0.347*** −0.364*** 家庭耕地面积
Area of arable land0.018*** 是否兼业
Concurrent business−0.838*** −1.052*** −0.500* −1.109*** −0.532* −1.331** 新型农业经营主体
New agricultural
business entities1.100*** 2.273*** 0.761** 1.501*** 1.427*** 1.078* 1.628*** 1.081*** 1.313*** 1.132*** 2.537*** ***、**和*分别表示在P<1%、P<5%和P<10%水平上显著。***, ** and * represent the significance in the levels of P<1%, P<5% and P<10%, respectively. -
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