Spatiotemporal variation of dry-wet climate during wheat growing seasons from 1961 to 2020 in China
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摘要: 基于1961—2020年全国524个气象台站逐日数据, 以有效降水量、作物需水量和水分盈缺量(有效降水量与作物需水量的差值)为干湿指标, 从年际和年代际尺度(P1: 1961—1990年, P2: 1991—2020年)分析了全国小麦主产区(春麦区: 东北、蒙北、西北、北疆; 冬麦区: 北部、华北、西南、长江中下游、华南、新疆)生长季内气候干湿状况时空分布和演变趋势, 并利用SPEI指数评估了小麦种植区的干旱风险。结果表明: 1) 1961—2020年华南、长江中下游、西南冬麦区小麦生长季降水量大于作物需水量, 其他麦区生长季内水分亏缺, 新疆冬麦区(443 mm)和北疆春麦区(495 mm)为缺水量高值区。2)近60年全国小麦生长季干旱频率为35.2%~59.6%, 四大春麦区、长江中下游冬麦区干旱发生频率较高, 均大于50.0%。3) 1961—2020年全国小麦生长季有效降水量波动增加, 作物需水量呈先降后升的趋势, 华北、北部冬麦区表现为气候暖干化, 其他麦区均呈气候暖湿化趋势。小麦种植区暖湿化的气候机制存在地域间差异, 春麦区(东北、蒙北、北疆)和新疆冬麦区为有效降水量增加且作物需水量减少; 而长江中下游冬麦区生长季内有效降水量和作物需水量均为增加的趋势, 但降水量增加幅度大于作物需水量。本文在全国尺度上对全国小麦生长季干湿状况时空变化进行了探究, 对农业正确应对气候变化具有重要的参考意义。Abstract: As the intensity of climate change increases, global warming continues to affect the hydrological cycle and precipitation characteristics. Changes occur at various locations owing to interregional differences in the intensity and distribution of precipitation and evapotranspiration. To determine the dry-wet climate distribution during the wheat growing season in wheat planting regions of China and the changes that have occurred over the past 60 years, we analyzed the temporal and spatial variation characteristics of China’s dry-wet climate over the inter-annual and inter-decadal periods from 1961 to 2020 (P1: 1961–1990; P2: 1991–2020). To explore how dry-wet climate changes, a series of dry-wet indices, such as effective precipitation, crop water demand, and water surplus and deficiency (difference between effective precipitation and crop water demand) were used. A Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index was used in this study for drought risk assessment in cropping regions. In this study, 524 meteorological stations with 60-year data records of China’s wheat planting regions were selected and divided into ten wheat planting regions. These regions are as follows. Spring wheat: Northeast China Spring Wheat Region, NES; Northern Inner Mongolia Spring Wheat Region, NIMS; Northwest China Spring Wheat Region, NWS; Northern Xinjiang Spring Wheat Region, NXJS. Winter wheat: Northern China Winter Wheat Region, NW; North China Plain Winter Wheat Region, NCW; Middle-Lower Reach of Yangtze River Winter Wheat Region, MLYRW; Southwest China Winter Wheat Region, SWS; South China Winter Wheat Region, SCW; Xinjiang Winter Wheat Region, XJW. The results showed that precipitation exceeded the crop water requirements during the wheat growing season in the SCW, SWW, and MLYRW regions over the past 60 years. Other regions experienced water deficits during wheat the growing season, with XJW (443 mm) and NXJS (495 mm) exhibiting the highest water deficit values. Estimates of effective precipitation, crop water demand, water surplus and deficit for the national wheat growing season ranged from 2.0–1320.0, 156.0–832.0, and 828.0–1081.0 mm, respectively. Both values showed a clear zonal distribution from southeast to northwest. In this study, drought frequency was calculated as 35.2%–59.6% for the national wheat growing season; it was more than 50.0% in the spring wheat regions and MLYRW regions. The frequencies of mild, moderate, and severe droughts during the wheat growing seasons were 18.7%–46.0%, 0–21.5%, and 1.7%–11.6%, respectively. The analysis showed that during the wheat growing season, effective precipitation volatility increased from 1961 to 2020, and crop water demand decreased and then increased again. The NCW and NW regions exhibited a drying climate, while the other regions showed a wetting climate trend. Further analysis revealed interregional differences in the climatic mechanisms of the wet-dry crisis in wheat planting regions. In NES, NIMS, NXJS, and XJW regions, effective precipitation increased and crop water demand decreased. Meanwhile, in MLYRW, effective precipitation and crop water demand increased, but the increase in precipitation was higher than that in crop water demand. Interdecadal variability in effective precipitation indicated a modest rising tendency; crop water demand declined in the P1 period and grew in the P2 period, whereas water surplus and deficit increased in the P1 period and decreased in the P2 period, respectively. This study makes an essential contribution to the research on the proper response of agriculture to climate change by showing the temporal and spatial variations of the dry-wet climate in China’s wheat regions.
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Key words:
- Wheat planting region /
- Climate change /
- Dry-wet climate /
- Water surplus and deficiency /
- Drought
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图 1 中国小麦种植区划及524个气象站点分布[图中斜杠区域为无数据区, 此文审图号:GS(2019)1822]
Figure 1. Distribution of wheat planting regions and 524 meteorological stations in China [the areas with black slashes are no data ares, the Map Approval Number of figures is GS(2019)1822]
图 2 1961—2020年小麦全生长季有效降水量、作物需水量和水分盈缺量空间分布
Figure 2. Distributio of effective precipitation, and crop potential evapotranspiration and water surplus and deficiency during the wheat growing season in China from 1961 to 2020
图 3 1961—2020年不同小麦种植区小麦全生长季水分盈缺量的盒须图
白色表示该种植区生长季内水分盈余, 不需要灌水; 灰色表示该种植区生长季内水分亏缺, 需要灌水。每个盒须图中的点代表最异常值, 线表示分位数(上四分位数、中位数和下四分位数)。The abbreviations of different wheat planting regions are shown in the table 1. White indicates that the planting regions are water surplus during the growing period and unrequire irrigation; grey indicates that the planting regions are water deficiency during the growing period and require irrigation. Within each boxplot, the dot represent outlier and the lines indicate the quantiles (25th percentile, 50th percentile and 75th percentile).
Figure 3. Mean values of the of water surplus and deficiency during the wheat growing season in different wheat planting regions of China from 1961−2020
图 4 1961—2020年小麦全生长季有效降水量、作物需水量、水分盈缺量的气候倾向率
Figure 4. Climatic tendency rates of effective precipitation, crop potential evapotranspiration and water surplus and deficiency during the wheat growing season in China from 1961 to 2020
图 5 1961—2020年小麦生长季干旱频率空间分布
Figure 5. Distribution of drought frequency during the wheat growing season from 1961 to 2020
图 6 1961—2020年不同时段(1961—1990年, P1; 1991—2020年, P2)不同小麦种植区的小麦全生长季干旱频率空间分布
每个盒须图中的点代表最异常值, 线表示分位数(上四分位数、中位数和下四分位数)。The abbreviations of different wheat planting regions are shown in the table 1. Within each boxplot, the dot represent outlier and the lines indicate the quantiles (25th percentile, 50th percentile and 75th percentile).
Figure 6. Distribution of drought frequency during the wheat growing season in different wheat planting regions in different periods (P1: 1961 to 1990; P2: 1991 to 2020)
表 1 中国不同小麦种植区生长季及选取的SPEI指数
Table 1. Growing periods and standardized precipitation evapotranspiration indexes (SPEI) in different wheat planting regions of China
小麦种植区
Wheat planting region生长季
Date of growing season选取的SPEI值
Value of the selected SPEI蒙北春麦区
Northern Inner Mongolia Spring Wheat Region (NIMS)4月上旬—8月上旬
Early April − early August7月的SPEI-6值
SPEI-6 of July西北春麦区
Northwest China Spring Wheat Region (NWS)3月下旬—8月下旬
Late March − late August7月的SPEI-6值
SPEI-6 of July东北春麦区
Northeast China Spring Wheat Region (NES)4月中旬—7月下旬
Mid April Late July6月的SPEI-6值
SPEI-6 of June北疆春麦区
Northern Xinjiang Spring Wheat Region (NXJS)4月上旬—7月下旬
Early April − late July6月的SPEI-6值
SPEI-6 of June新疆冬麦区
Xinjiang Winter Wheat Region (XJW)10月上旬—6月下旬
Early October − late June5月的SPEI-6值
SPEI-6 of May北部冬麦区
Northern China Winter Wheat Region (NW)9月下旬—6月下旬
Late September − late June5月的SPEI-6值
SPEI-6 of May华北冬麦区
North China Plain Winter Wheat Region (NCW)10月中旬—6月上旬
Mid October − early June5月的SPEI-6值
SPEI-6 of May西南冬麦区
Southwest winter wheat region (SWW)11月上旬—5月中旬
Early November − mid May4月的SPEI-6值
SPEI-6 of April长江中下游冬麦区
Middle-Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River Winter Wheat Region (MLYRW)11月上旬—5月下旬
Early November − late May4月的SPEI-6值
SPEI-6 of April华南冬麦区
South China Winter Wheat Region (SCW)11月上旬—5月上旬
Early November − early May4月的SPEI-6值
SPEI-6 of April
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表 2 1961—2020年不同时段小麦全生长季的有效降水量、作物需水量、水分盈缺量的气候倾向率
Table 2. Climatic tendency rates of precipitation, crop potential evapotranspiration and water surplus and deficiency during the wheat growing season in China in different periods from 1961 to 2020
小麦种植区
Wheat planting regionP1 (1961−1990) P2 (1991−2020) 有效降水量
Effective preclpntation作物需水量
Crop evapotranspiration水分盈缺量
Water surplus and deficiency有效降水量
Effective precipitation作物需水量
Crop evapotranspiration水分盈缺量
Water surplus and deficiency东北春麦区 NES 
蒙北春麦区 NIMS 
西北春麦区 NWS 
北疆春麦区 NXJS 
北部冬麦区 NW 
华北冬麦区 NCW 
西南冬麦区 SWW 
长江中下游冬麦区 MLYRW 
华南冬麦区 SCW 
新疆冬麦区XJW 
向上和向下的箭头分别表示倾向率的正值和负值。蓝色表示气候湿化, 红色表示气候干化, 绿色表明倾向率变化趋势不明显; 颜色越深, 表示变化趋势越大: 绿色[−5~5 mm·(10a)−1], 浅蓝色和浅粉色[绝对值为5~10mm·(10a)−1], 蓝色和粉色[绝对值>10 mm·(10a)−1]。The abbreviations of different wheat planting regions are shown in the table 1. Upward and downward arrows indicate positive and negetive climate tendency, respectively. Blue indicates a wetting climate, red indicates a drying climate, green indicates an insignificant climate trend. Colour shade denotes the effect value range: green, −5 ~5 mm·(10a)−1 (light effects); light blue and light pink, absolute values of 5~10 mm·(10a)−1 (medium effects ); blue and pink, absolute values >10 mm·(10a)−1 (large effects).
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