ENSO events impacts to Shandong apple production Ⅱ: changes of agricultural meteorological disasters under different ENSO scenarios and affected to apple yield
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摘要: 苹果作为山东优势果品之一, 其生产受农业气象灾害影响较大。探究在ENSO事件下山东农业气象灾害演变规律及其对山东苹果产量的影响, 对指导当地苹果生产具有重大意义。本文基于山东1991—2019年逐日气象观测数据、地市级苹果种植统计数据及ENSO事件数据, 利用数理统计分析和ArcGIS空间表达, 得出以下结论1) 1991−2019年不同ESNO年型下农业气象灾害发生情况区域差异显著。6—8月果实膨大期厄尔尼诺年干旱灾害发生较为频繁, 共计78次, 干旱频率最高约50%; 中性年雨涝灾害较为严重, 高达60次。鲁西、鲁中等热量资源充足地区, 干旱发生较为频繁; 鲁南降水资源较为充沛地区, 雨涝灾害发生频繁。鲁东、胶东半岛等地3—5月苹果花期极端低温灾害发生较为频繁, 发生日数约7~9 d·a−1, 频率约为60%—100%。鲁西等地是6—8月苹果果实膨大期高温热害的高发区, 发生天数11~15 d·a−1。2)不同ESNO年型下, 干旱与厄尔尼诺年呈正相关, 与拉尼娜年呈负相关。3—10月苹果可生长期厄尔尼诺年南方涛动指数与雨涝呈正相关相关, 拉尼娜年、中性年南方涛动指数与雨涝呈负相关。3—5月苹果花期低温灾害与厄尔尼诺年南方涛动指数呈负相关; 与拉尼娜年、中性年南方涛动指数呈正相关。3) 3—10月苹果可生长期, 厄尔尼诺年, 胶东半岛地区干旱加剧, 导致苹果减产率上升; 中性年, 雨涝灾害, 也使得苹果减产减收影响加重。6—8月苹果果实膨大期, 拉尼娜年、中性年下, 鲁西地区干旱与苹果减产率呈正相关; 中性年, 山东大部分地区雨涝与苹果减产率呈正相关。厄尔尼诺年苹果减产率受极端低温灾害影响较小, 高温热害影响较大; 拉尼娜年、中性年山东大部分地区低温冷害、冻害天数增加, 导致苹果减产率上升, 风险加大。苹果生产中, 谨防厄尔尼诺年高温、干旱, 拉尼娜年、中性年应预防低温、雨涝灾害对苹果产量、品质的损害, 确保苹果产业而健康可持续的生产。Abstract: Apple is one of the dominant fruits in Shandong province, which production is greatly affected by agricultural meteorological disasters. It is of great significance to explore the evolution characteristic of agrometeorological disasters and influence on local apple production under extreme climate events. In this study, based on the daily meteorological data, prefectural and municipal apple production statistical data and monthly ENSO events data from 1991 to 2019 in Shandong, using mathematical statistics analysis and ArcGIS spatial expression, we analyzed the study aims. The results showed that: 1) there are significant regional differences of agrometeorological disasters under different ENSO years during 1991 to 2019. During the period of fruit expansion from June to August, drought occurred frequently in El Nino years with 78 times and the highest frequency of drought was about 50%. In Neutral years, the flooding disaster is relatively serious, up to 60 times. Drought occurs frequently in areas with sufficient heat resources, such as Western and Central of Shandong. Rainfall and waterlogging disasters occur frequently in areas with abundant rainfall resources in Southern Shandong. In Eastern Shandong and Jiaodong Peninsula, the extreme low temperature disaster occurred frequently during apple flowering period from March to May. The number of low temperature days is about 7-9 d·a−1, which frequency is about 60%−100%. In Western Shandong Province and other places are the high incidence areas about high temperature heat disaster during apple fruit expansion period from June to August, with the occurrence days of 11-15 d·a−1. 2) Under different ESNO events, drought is positively correlated with El Nino years, while is negatively correlated in La Nina years. During apple growth period from March to October, there is a positive correlation between the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and rainfall in El Nino years, while it is a negative correlation between the SOI and rain waterlogging in La Nina and Neutral years. Low temperature disasters are negatively correlated with the SOI in El Nino years, while are positively correlated with SOI in La Nina years and Neutral years during apple flowering period from March to May. 3) During March to October, the drought in Jiaodong Peninsula has intensified leading to the increase of apple yield reduction rate in El Nino years; the impact on rain and waterlogging of apple yield and income is also aggravated in Neutral years. In La Nina years and Neutral years, drought in Western Shandong was positively correlated with apple yield reduction rate; while in neutral years, the rainfall in most areas of Shandong is positively related to the reduction rate of apple yield during apple expansion period from June to August. In El Nino years, the reduction rate of apple yield is less affected by extreme low temperature disasters, but more affected by high temperature heat damage. The number of days of low temperature increased in most areas of Shandong under La Nina and Neutral years, which led to the reduction rate of apple yield and risk increase. Beware of high temperature and drought in ENSO event, we should prevent the damage of low temperature, rain and waterlogging to apple yield and quality, and ensure the healthy and sustainable production of apple industry.
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Key words:
- Apple yield /
- Shandong /
- ENSO events /
- Drought and flood disaster /
- Extreme temperature
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图 2 不同ENSO年型山东6－8月降水距平百分率及旱涝等级(1991－2019年)
Figure 2. Percentage of precipitation anomalies and grade of droughts and floods from June to August under different ENSO years in Shandong (1991−2019)
图 3 不同ENSO年型山东6－8月旱涝频率分布
Figure 3. Frequency of drought and flood from June to August under different ENSO years in Shandong
图 4 不同ENSO年型下山东6－8月旱涝灾害站次比
Figure 4. The stations ratio of drought and flood disaster from June to August under different ENSO years in Shandong
图 5 1991－2019年不同ENSO年型下低温冷害发生日数、频率空间分布
Figure 5. Spatial distribution of occurrence days and frequency of cold injury under different ENSO years during 1991−2019
图 6 1991－2019年不同ENSO年型下低温冻害发生日数、频率空间分布
Figure 6. Spatial distribution of days and frequency of low temperature freezing injury under different ENSO years during 1991−2019
图 7 1991－2019年不同ENSO年型下高温热害发生日数空间、频率分布
Figure 7. Spatial distribution of occurrence days and frequency of high temperature under different ENSO years during 1991−2019
图 8 1991—2019年不同ENSO年型下旱涝灾害与ENSO事件南方涛动指数相关性的空间分布(从上至下: 3—10月干旱、6—8月干旱、3—10月雨涝、6—8月雨涝)
Figure 8. Spatial distribution of correlation between drought and flood disasters and ENSO events in different ENSO years from 1991 to 2019 (from top to bottom: drought in March-October ,drought in June-August, flood in March-October, flood in June-August)
图 9 1991—2019年不同ENSO年型下低温灾害与ENSO事件相关性的空间分布
Figure 9. Spatial distribution of correlation between cold damage and ENSO events in different ENSO years from 1991 to 2019
图 10 1991—2019年不同ENSO年型下高温热害与ENSO事件相关性的空间分布
Figure 10. Spatial distribution of correlation between high temperature heat damage and ENSO events under different ENSO years during 1991−2019
图 11 1991—2019年不同ENSO年型下旱涝灾害与苹果减产率相关性的空间分布(从上至下: 3—10月干旱、3—10月雨涝、6—8月干旱、6—8月雨涝)
Figure 11. Spatial distribution of correlation between drought and flood disasters and apple yield reduction rate under different ENSO years during 1991−2019 (from top to bottom: drought in March-October, drought in June-August, flood in March-October, flood in June-August)
图 12 1991—2019年不同ENSO年型下低温冷害、冻害与苹果减产率相关性的空间分布
Figure 12. Spatial distribution of correlation between chilling injury, freezing injury and apple yield reduction rate under different ENSO years during 1991−2019
图 13 1991—2019年不同ENSO年型下高温热害与苹果减产率相关性的空间分布
Figure 13. Spatial distribution of correlation between high temperature and apple yield reduction rate under different ENSO years during 1991−2019
表 1 1991—2019年ENSO事件不同年型的统计[25-26]
Table 1. Classification of different ENSO events from 1991 to 2019
ENSO 年份 Years 总计 Total 厄尔尼诺年 El Nino years 1991, 1992, 1993, 1994, 1997, 2002, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2009, 2014, 2015, 2016 13年 13 years 中性年 Neutral years 1996, 1998, 2001, 2003, 2007, 2012, 2013, 2017, 2018 9年 9 Years 拉尼娜年 La Nina years 1995, 1999, 2000, 2008, 2010, 2011, 2019 7年 7 Years 
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表 2 根据降水距平百分率划分旱涝等级
Table 2. Drought and flood grades according to the percentage of precipitation anomaly
等级 Level 季节 Season 年 Year 重涝 Heavy waterlogging $ Pa\geqslant 80\text{%} $ $ Pa\geqslant 45\text{%} $ 大涝 Flooding $ 80\text{%} > Pa\geqslant 50\text{%} $ $ 45\text{%} > Pa\geqslant 30\text{%} $ 偏涝 Partial waterlogging $ 50\text{%} > Pa > 25\text{%} $ $ 30\text{%} > Pa > 15\text{%} $ 正常 Normal $ 25\text{%}\geqslant Pa\geqslant -25\text{%} $ $ 15\text{%}\geqslant Pa\geqslant -15\text{%} $ 偏旱 Partial drought $ -25\text{%} > Pa > -50\text{%} $ $ -15\text{%} > Pa > -30\text{%} $ 大旱 Drought $ -50\text{%}\geqslant Pa > -80\text{%} $ $ -30\text{%}\geqslant Pa > -45\text{%} $ 重旱 Heavy drought $ -80\mathrm{\text{%}}\geqslant \mathrm{P}\mathrm{a} $ $ -45\mathrm{\text{%}}\geqslant \mathrm{P}\mathrm{a} $
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表 3 以旱涝站次比划分区域灾害影响范围
Table 3. The influence area of regional disasters by the stations ratio of drought and flood
旱涝站次比 Drought / flood station ratio 影响范围 Affected region Pj≥70% 全域性干旱(雨涝) Drought (flooding) in the whole region 70%＞Pj≥50% 区域性干旱(雨涝) Regional drought (flooding) 50%＞Pj≥30% 部分地区干旱(雨涝) Drought (flooding) in the most part of study region 30%＞Pj≥10% 局部地区干旱(雨涝) Drought (flooding) in the local region Pj＜10% 全域无明显干旱(雨涝)发生 Not occurred drought (flooding)
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表 4 山东苹果极端温度指标
Table 4. Extreme temperature index of apple in Shandong
灾害类型
Agro - Disasters研究时段
The research period灾害种类
Types指标
Indicators极端低温
Extreme low temperature3－5月苹果开花期
Apple flowering period from March to May低温冷害
Chilling damages−2 ℃＜$ {t}_{min} $≤0 ℃ 低温冻害
Low temperature freezing$ {t}_{min} $≤−2 ℃ 极端高温
Extreme heat6－8月果实膨大期
Fruit enlargement period from June to August高温热害
High temperature$ {t}_{max} $≥35 ℃
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