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摘要: 东北地区是我国大豆主产区, 该地区深受气候变化影响。厘清气候变化背景下的农业气候资源、农业气象灾害、大豆气候种植适宜性变化对指导大豆生产和扩种具有重要意义。通过利用最新气候态(1991−2020年)与旧气候态(1981−2010年)的农业气候资源、农业气象灾害, 分析了大豆种植气候适宜度的时空变化。结果发现: 1)内蒙古东部、黑龙江西南部和东北部、吉林中西部等地大豆生长季≥10 ℃活动积温增加26~65 ℃∙d, 局部地区增加66~182 ℃∙d; 1981−2020年整个时间段, 东北大豆的种植区生长季积温大部呈上升趋势。大豆生长季降水和日照变化呈现空间差异。2)东北地区大部大豆生长季霜冻害日数减少; 黑龙江大部和吉林西北部大豆生长季干旱天数减少, 吉林中东部和辽宁大部干旱天数增加。3)内蒙古东部、黑龙江西部、吉林西部、辽宁西部和东部大豆种植气候适宜度提高, 黑龙江中部和东部、吉林中部和东北部气候适宜度略下降。4)气象因子对大豆气候适宜度变化贡献率分析表明, 日照变化是大豆气候适宜度变化的主要因素, 其次是积温变化, 降水变化对大豆气候适宜度变化贡献率最小。最新气候态下东北地区大部大豆种植气候条件变好, 东北地区可以充分利用温度资源, 适当调整播期和品种, 但从积温上升幅度看, 不宜采取过激的跨积温带盲目种植。Abstract: Northeast China was the major soybean production region, which was profoundly influenced by climate change. It was important to identify how did climate change influence agroclimatic resources, agro-meteorological disaster and soybean climatic suitability for soybean production and plant expanding. In this study, we evaluated the temporal and spatial change of the agroclimatic resources (accumulated temperature, growing season precipitation and sunshine hours in the rate of 80% climatic guarantee), agro-meteorological disasters (drought and frost days) and soybean climatic suitability by two climate reference periods, i.e. 1991−2020 and 1981−2010. Finally, contribution rates of accumulated temperature, precipitation and sunshine hours to the soybean suitability change were calculated by a statistical method. We found that: 1) ≥10 ℃ thermal time during soybean growing season have increased by 26−65 ℃·d in the east of Inner Mongolia autonomous region, southwest and northeast of Heilongjiang province and Midwest of Jilin province, and increased by 66−182 ℃·d in local regions. Additionally, ≥10 ℃ thermal time during soybean growing season had an increased trend from 1981 to 2020 in Northeast China. Moreover, the change of precipitation and sunshine hours during soybean growing season had the characteristics of spatial differentiation. 2) The frost days during soybean growing season has decreased in the major region of Northeast China by 1 to 3 days, and by 4 to 6 days in some local areas. The drought days have declined in Heilongjiang province and Northwest of Jilin province by 1 to 4 days, while increased in Mideast of Jinlin and Liaoning province by 1 to 6 days. 3) the climatic suitability of soybean planting has improved in east of Inner Mongolia autonomous region, west of Heilongjiang and Jinlin, and Liaoning province, while have dropped in middle and east of Heilongjiang, Middle and northeast of Jinlin province. 4) the change of sunshine hours was the major factor for the soybean climatic suitability. Secondary factor was the thermal time, while precipitation had the least contribution. The results indicate that the climatic conditions of soybean in 1991-2020 in Northeast China had become better than in 1981−2010. The farmers in the Northeast China would adopt sowing date and soybean cultivar to fully utilize the temperature resource. However, blindly growing soybean across the accumulated temperate zone was not encouraged from the increased extent of thermal time.
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Key words:
- Soybean /
- Climate suitability /
- Climate change /
- Northeast China /
- Agroclimatic resources
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图 2 1991—2020年与1981—2010年80%保证率活动积温差值(a)和1981—2020年80%保证率活动积温时间趋势(b)
Figure 2. The difference of accumulated temperature in the rate of 80% climatic guarantee between 1991−2020 and 1981−2010 (a) and its temporal trend from 1981 to 2020 (b)
图 3 1991—2020年与1981—2010年80%保证率生育期降水差值(a)和1981—2020年80%保证率生育期降水时间趋势(b)
Figure 3. The difference of growing season precipitation in the rate of 80% climatic guarantee between 1991−2020 and 1981−2010 (a) and its temporal trend from 1981 to 2020 (b)
图 4 1991—2020年与1981—2010年80%保证率生育期日照时数(a) 和1981—2020年80%保证率生育期日照时数时间趋势(b)
Figure 4. The difference of growing season sunshine hours in the rate of 80% climatic guarantee between 1991−2020 and 1981−2010 (a) and its temporal trend from 1981 to 2020 (b)
图 5 1991—2020年与1981—2010年干旱日数差值(a)和霜冻日数差值(b)
Figure 5. The difference of drought days (a) and frost days (b) between 1991−2020 and 1981−2010
图 6 1991—2020年与1981—2010年大豆种植气候适宜度变化
Figure 6. The change of soybean climatic suitability between 1991−2020 and 1981−2010
图 7 生长季积温(a)、降水(b)、日照(c)对大豆适宜度变化的贡献率
Figure 7. The contribution rate of accumulated temperature (a), precipitation (b) and sunshine hours in the growing season
表 1 不同发育期适宜度模型中的参数设置
Table 1. Parameters of suitability model in different phenological stages
发育期
Phenological stage参数 Parameter $ {T}_{i1} $ $ {T}_{i2} $ $ {T}_{i0} $ $ {P}_{il} $ $ {P}_{ih} $ $ {S}_{i0} $ $ {b}_{i} $ 播种—出苗 Sowing−emergence 7.5 26.0 18.5 16.7 22.3 9.37 5.05 出苗—分枝 Emergence−branching 10.5 30.0 23.5 20.7 24.7 9.03 4.87 分枝—开花 Branching−anthesis 17.5 32.0 27.0 154.1 195.3 8.75 4.72 开花—鼓粒 Anthesis−pod filling 13.0 30.5 25.0 102.4 132.5 8.31 4.48 鼓粒—成熟 Pod filling−maturity 14.0 30.0 24.5 34.1 56.6 7.75 4.18 $ {T}_{i1} $为发育期i的下限温度, $ {T}_{i2} $为发育期i的上限温度, $ {T}_{i0} $为发育期i的最适温度, $ {P}_{il} $为大豆发育期i的下限需水量, $ {P}_{ih} $为大豆发育期i的上限需水量, $ {S}_{i0} $为大豆发育期i的最适日照时数, $ {b}_{i} $为发育期i的日照适宜度常数。$ {T}_{i1} $is the lower limit temperature of phenology i, $ {T}_{i2} $ is the upper limit temperature of phenology i, $ {T}_{i0} $ is the optimal temperature of phenology i, $ {P}_{il} $ is the upper limit requirement water of phenology i, $ {P}_{ih} $ is the lower limit requirement water of phenology i, $ {S}_{i0} $ is the optimal sunshine hour of phenology i , $ {b}_{i} $is the sunshine suitability constant of phenology i. 
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