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农业社会化服务对化肥减量的影响

高恩凯 朱建军 郑军

高恩凯, 朱建军, 郑军. 农业社会化服务对化肥减量的影响−基于全国31个省区面板数据的双重检验[J]. 中国生态农业学报 (中英文), 2022, 30(0): 1−11 doi: 10.12357/cjea.20220637
引用本文: 高恩凯, 朱建军, 郑军. 农业社会化服务对化肥减量的影响−基于全国31个省区面板数据的双重检验[J]. 中国生态农业学报 (中英文), 2022, 30(0): 1−11 doi: 10.12357/cjea.20220637
GAO E K, ZHU J J, ZHENG J. The impact of agricultural socialized services on the reduction of fertilizer−Double inspection based on panel data of 31 provinces in China[J]. Chinese Journal of Eco-Agriculture, 2022, 30(0): 1−11 doi: 10.12357/cjea.20220637
Citation: GAO E K, ZHU J J, ZHENG J. The impact of agricultural socialized services on the reduction of fertilizer−Double inspection based on panel data of 31 provinces in China[J]. Chinese Journal of Eco-Agriculture, 2022, 30(0): 1−11 doi: 10.12357/cjea.20220637

农业社会化服务对化肥减量的影响基于全国31个省区面板数据的双重检验

doi: 10.12357/cjea.20220637
基金项目: 国家社会科学基金项目(19BGL160)和教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目(21YJA790085)资助
详细信息
    作者简介:

    高恩凯, 主要研究方向为农业资源与环境保护。E-mail: 451936958@qq.com

    通讯作者:

    郑军, 主要研究方向为农业经济理论与政策, 农业资源与环境保护。E-mail: zhengjun9200@126.com

  • 中图分类号: F324.6

The impact of agricultural socialized services on the reduction of fertilizerDouble inspection based on panel data of 31 provinces in China

Funds: This study was supported by the National Social Science Foundation of China (19BGL160) and the Humanities and Social Science Foundation of the Ministry of Education of China (21YJA790085).
More Information
  • 摘要: 实现化肥减量是我国农业走向高质量发展的重要举措, 也是实现绿色化农业发展的关键所在。基于专业分工理论, 利用2010—2020年统计年鉴数据, 采用中介调节模型和工具变量模型实证分析了农业社会化服务对化肥减量的作用机制。研究发现, 农业社会化服务对化肥使用总量和单位面积使用量具有显著负向影响, 即即每增加1亿元的农业社会化服务产值能分别降低0.055万t的化肥使用总量和0.443万t的单位面积使用量。中介和调节分析发现, 农业社会化服务通过资源配置和科技进步两条路径实现化肥减量, 分工深化和政府主导对该路径分别对该路径存在0.039的促进作用和−0.017的抑制作用。进一步研究发现, 农业社会化服务可以显著降低服务规模小、农业发展程度高和东部地区省份的化肥使用量, 而对中西部地区省份化肥减量未能发挥作用。其中, 监管体系的缺失和分工深化的不足是目前我国农业社会化服务面临的主要问题, 也是阻碍化肥减量实现的重要因素。
  • 图  1  农业社会化服务对化肥减量的分析框架

    Figure  1.  Analysis framework of agricultural socialized service on fertilizer reduction

    图  2  2010年.2015年和2020年农业社会化服务对化肥减量影响机制相关变量变化趋势分析

    Figure  2.  Change trend analysis of growth rate of agricultural socialized service on fertilizer application

    图  3  农业社会化服务对化肥减量影响机制相关变量增长率变化趋势分析

    Figure  3.  Change trend analysis of growth rate of agricultural socialized service on fertilizer application

    表  1  农业社会化服务对化肥减量影响机制相关变量的基本统计信息

    Table  1.   Descriptive statistical of related variables of agricultural socialized service on fertilizer application

    变量
    Variable
    指标
    Index
    总值
    Gross value
    均值
    Average value
    标准差
    Standard deviation
    最小值
    minimum value
    最大值
    Maximum value
    $ F $化肥施用总量
    Fertilizer application value (×104 t)
    57 625.20185.89147.014.40716.10
    $ {\mathrm{F}}_{\mathrm{i}} $单位面积化肥施用总量
    Fertilizer application value per unit area (kg∙hm−2)
    112 330.46362.36129.2696.25750.66
    $ \mathrm{S}\mathrm{e}\mathrm{r} $农林牧渔服务业产值
    Agricultural service industry value (×108 ¥)
    47 167.81152.15146.753.00804.10
    $ \mathrm{V}\mathrm{a}\mathrm{l} $第一产业增加值
    Agricultural increment value (×108 ¥)
    679 370.602191.521643.6066.707853.80
    $ \mathrm{T}\mathrm{e}\mathrm{c} $有效灌溉面积
    Effective irrigation area (%)
    141.110.460.220.170.99
    $ \mathrm{C}\mathrm{o}\mathrm{n} $农林牧渔服务业中间消耗
    Agricultural service intermediate consumption (×108 ¥)
    20 319.9765.5566.310.80356.90
    $ \mathrm{F}\mathrm{i}\mathrm{n} $农林水财政支出
    Agricultural financial expenditure (×108 ¥)
    166 533.95537.21271.8691.781339.36
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  2  农业社会化服务对化肥施用量的基准回归结果

    Table  2.   Benchmark regression results of agricultural socialized service on fertilizer application

    变量 Variable模型(1) Model (1)模型(2) Model (2)模型(3) Model (3)模型(4) Model (4)模型(5) Model (5)模型(6) Model (6)
    $ \mathrm{L}\mathrm{n}\left(\mathrm{S}\mathrm{e}\mathrm{r}\right) $−0.077***
    (0.016)
    −0.075***
    (0.019)
    −0.061***
    (0.016)
    −0.065***
    (0.018)
    −0.068***
    (0.016)
    −0.055***
    (0.017)
    $ \mathrm{L}\mathrm{n}\left(\mathrm{V}\mathrm{a}\mathrm{l}\right) $−0.190***
    (0.039)
    −0.094**
    (0.047)
    $ \mathrm{T}\mathrm{e}\mathrm{c} $−0.213***
    (0.046)
    −0.192***
    (0.044)
    $ \mathrm{L}\mathrm{n}\left(\mathrm{C}\mathrm{o}\mathrm{n}\right) $0.094***
    (0.017)
    0.063***
    (0.020)
    $ \mathrm{L}\mathrm{n}\left(\mathrm{A}\mathrm{f}\mathrm{f}\right) $0.031***
    (0.006)
    0.029***
    (0.006)
    0.027***
    (0.006)
    0.025***
    (0.006)
    0.023***
    (0.006)
    $ \mathrm{L}\mathrm{n}\left(\mathrm{P}\mathrm{e}\mathrm{r}\right) $−0.321**
    (0.125)
    −0.280**
    (0.121)
    −0.289**
    (0.121)
    −0.333***
    (0.119)
    −0.280**
    (0.115)
    $ \mathrm{L}\mathrm{n}\left(\mathrm{O}\mathrm{u}\mathrm{t}\right) $0.133***
    (0.037)
    0.438***
    (0.057)
    0.128***
    (0.036)
    0.120***
    (0.035)
    0.226***
    (0.064)
    $ \_\mathrm{C}\mathrm{o}\mathrm{n}\mathrm{s} $5.066***
    (0.057)
    6.715***
    (1.027)
    6.155***
    (0.995)
    6.552***
    (0.991)
    6.590***
    (0.975)
    6.205***
    (0.947)
    N310310310310310310
    F342.45***112.38***115.30***119.57***114.26***120.38***
      *、**、***分别代表P<0.1、P<0.05、P<0.0; N和F代表样本数和统计检定值。非标准估计系数表示自变量改变1个单位时, 因变量的改变量; 标准化估计系数表示自变量改变1个标准差时, 因变量改变量。*、** and *** indicate significance at P<0.05 and P<0.01 levels. N and F indicate significance at number of samples and equality of variances. The nonstandard estimation coefficient represents the change of dependent variable when the independent variable changes one unit; the standardized estimation coefficient represents the change of dependent variable when the independent variable changes one standard deviation.
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  3  农业社会化服务对化肥施用量的稳健性检验结果

    Table  3.   Robustness test results of agricultural socialized service on fertilizer application

    变量
    Variable
    模型(7)
    Model (7)
    模型(8)
    Model (8)
    模型(9)
    Model (9)
    OLSIV-OLSIV-OLS
    $ \mathrm{L}\mathrm{n}\left(\mathrm{S}\mathrm{e}\mathrm{r}\right) $ −0.443**
    (0.212)
    −0.533*
    (0.270)
    −0.416***
    (0.727)
    $ \mathrm{L}\mathrm{n}\left({\mathrm{S}\mathrm{e}\mathrm{r}}_{\mathrm{t}-1}\right) $ 0.110*
    (0.056)
    $ \mathrm{L}\mathrm{n}\left({\mathrm{S}\mathrm{e}\mathrm{r}}_{\mathrm{j}\mathrm{t}}\right) $ 2.163***
    (0.323)
    C YES YES YES
    N 310 310 310
    F 146.32*** 4.26 25.71***
    $ \mathrm{F}\mathrm{i}\mathrm{r}\mathrm{s}\mathrm{t}\_\mathrm{F} $ 4.31 44.61***
    $ \mathrm{C}\mathrm{h}\mathrm{i}2 $ 40.54***
      *、**、***分别代表P<0.1、P<0.05、P<0.0; C、N和F代表控制变量、样本数和统计检定值。非标准估计系数表示自变量改变1个单位时, 因变量的改变量; 标准化估计系数表示自变量改变1个标准差时, 因变量的改变量。*, ** and *** indicate significance at P<0.1, P<0.05 and P<0.01 levels. C, N and F indicate significance at control variable, number of samples and equality of variances. The nonstandard estimation coefficient represents the change of dependent variable when the independent variable changes one unit; the standardized estimation coefficient represents the change of dependent variable when the independent variable changes one standard deviation.
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  4  农业社会化服务对中间变量的检验结果

    Table  4.   Test results of agricultural socialized service on intermediate variables

    变量
    Variable
    模型(10)
    Model (10)
    模型(11)
    Model (11)
    模型(12)
    Model (12)
    $ \mathrm{L}\mathrm{n}\left(\mathrm{V}\mathrm{a}\mathrm{l}\right) $$ \mathrm{T}\mathrm{e}\mathrm{c} $Ln($ \mathrm{C}\mathrm{o}\mathrm{n} $)
    $ \mathrm{L}\mathrm{n}\left(\mathrm{S}\mathrm{e}\mathrm{r}\right) $ 0.073***
    (0.027)
    0.046*
    (0.024)
    −0.071
    (0.065)
    $ \_\mathrm{C}\mathrm{o}\mathrm{n}\mathrm{s} $ −2.955*
    (1.509)
    −0.767
    (1.308)
    1.341
    (3.521)
    C YES YES YES
    N 310 310 310
    F 22.84*** 12.83*** 21.21***
      *、**、***分别代表P<0.1、P<0.05、P<0.0; C、N和F代表控制变量、样本数和统计检定值。非标准估计系数表示自变量改变1个单位时,中间变量的改变量; 标准化估计系数表示自变量改变1个标准差时,中间变量的改变量。*, ** and *** indicate significance at P<0.1,05 and P<0.01 levels. C,N and F indicate significance at control variable, number of samples and equality of variances. The nonstandard estimation coefficient represents the change of intermediate variable when the independent variable changes one unit; the standardized estimation coefficient represents the change of intermediate variable when the independent variable changes one standard deviation.
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  5  分工深化和政府主导的调节分析结果

    Table  5.   Analysis results of deepening division of labor and government led regulation

    变量
    Variable
    模型 (13)
    Model (13)
    模型 (14)
    Model (14)
    模型 (15)
    Model (15)
    $ \mathrm{L}\mathrm{n}\left(\mathrm{S}\mathrm{e}\mathrm{r}\right) $ −0.146***
    (0.055)
    −0.220***
    (0.067)
    −0.181***
    (0.070)
    $ \mathrm{L}\mathrm{n}(\mathrm{S}\mathrm{e}\mathrm{r}\_\mathrm{C}\mathrm{o}\mathrm{n}) $ −0.017*
    (0.010)
    −0.021*
    (0.011)
    $ \mathrm{L}\mathrm{n}(\mathrm{S}\mathrm{e}\mathrm{r}\_\mathrm{F}\mathrm{i}\mathrm{n}) $ 0.029***
    (0.010)
    0.039***
    (0.011)
    $ \_\mathrm{C}\mathrm{o}\mathrm{n}\mathrm{s} $ 6.159***
    (0.944)
    5.712***
    (0.956)
    5.953***
    (0.961)
    N 310 310 310
    C YES YES YES
    F 121.23*** 126.21*** 127.12***
      *、**、***分别代表P<0.1、P<0.05、P<0.0; C、N和F代表控制变量、样本数和统计检定值。非标准估计系数表示自变量改变1个单位时, 因变量的改变量; 标准化估计系数表示自变量改变1个标准差时, 因变量的改变量。*, ** and *** indicate significance at P<0.1, P<05 and P<0.01 levels. C, N and F indicate significance at control variable, number of samples and equality of variances. The nonstandard estimation coefficient represents the change of dependent variable when the independent variable changes one unit; the standardized estimation coefficient represents the change of dependent variable when the independent variable changes one standard deviation.
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  6  农业社会化服务对化肥施用量的异致性分析结果

    Table  6.   Analysis results of heterogeneity of agricultural socialized service on fertilizer application

    变量
    Variable
    模型(16)模型(17)模型(18)
    规模化非规模化农业大省非农大省东部省份中西部省份
    $ \mathrm{L}\mathrm{n}\left(Ser\right) $ −0.182***
    (0.026)
    −0.378***
    (0.053)
    −0.2621***
    (0.052)
    −0.019***
    (0.008)
    −0.175***
    (0.382)
    −0.006
    (0.159)
    $ \_\mathrm{C}\mathrm{o}\mathrm{n}\mathrm{s} $ 3.302***
    (0.920)
    2.916***
    (1.191)
    4.093***
    (1.180)
    5.243***
    (1.086)
    8.139***
    (1.264)
    1.236
    (1.023)
    N 171 139 100 210 130 180
    C YES YES YES YES YES YES
    F 475.35*** 105.54*** 107.59*** 455.27*** 207.16*** 164.05***
      *、**、***分别代表P<0.1、P<0.05、P<0.0; C、N和F代表控制变量、样本数和统计检定值。非标准估计系数表示自变量改变1个单位时, 因变量的改变量; 标准化估计系数表示自变量改变1个标准差时, 因变量的改变量。*, ** and *** indicate significance at P<0.1, P<05 and P<0.01 levels. C, N and F indicate significance at control variable, number of samples and equality of variances. The nonstandard estimation coefficient represents the change of dependent variable when the independent variable changes one unit; the standardized estimation coefficient represents the change of dependent variable when the independent variable changes one standard deviation.
    下载: 导出CSV
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出版历程
  • 收稿日期:  2022-08-16
  • 录用日期:  2022-11-04
  • 网络出版日期:  2022-11-25

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