The land-use and land-cover change characteristics and driving forces of cultivated land in Central Asian countries from 1992 to 2015
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摘要: 中亚五国地处亚欧大陆的中心地带，是“一带一路”全球发展战略中重要的沿线节点之一。借助GIS空间统计分析方法，以欧洲太空局气候变化项目全球土地覆盖数据为基础，利用土地利用程度、动态度和转移矩阵对中亚五国1992-2015年土地利用/覆盖变化（LUCC）特征进行分析，并运用地理探测器对耕地驱动力进行深入研究。结果表明：1）1992-2015年，中亚五国的土地利用格局总体上表现为耕地和城镇用地持续增加，林地、草地和水域呈减少的趋势。耕地的增加主要来自林地（7.88万km2）和草地（5.27万km2）的转入，城镇用地的增加主要来自耕地（0.50万km2）的转入，耕地是仅次于城镇用地增速较快、变化最为显著的土地利用类型；城镇用地在各国均呈现增加的趋势，耕地除乌兹别克斯坦之外，在其他4国均呈现增加的趋势。2）1992-2015年中亚五国土地利用程度总体呈缓慢上升趋势（土地利用程度综合指数从1992年的193.34增加到2015年的197.41），即土地利用处于发展阶段；土地利用程度为耕地> 林地> 草地> 未利用地> 水域> 城镇用地。3）地理探测器对耕地变化驱动因素的分析结果表明，自然因素中年平均降水量对耕地变化的作用较为显著，但在短时间内社会和农业因素发挥决定性的作用；因子探测表明人口总数（0.882）和农村人口（0.881）对耕地扩张的影响力最大，其次为粮食单产（0.746）；交互探测表明各因子交互作用均为互相增强，其中，农村人口与粮食单产的叠加作用对耕地扩张的解释力度最大（0.972），影响耕地扩张的主要因素可归纳为人口增长和粮食单产提高。本研究可为中亚五国土地利用格局演变、区域土地利用规划和土地资源可持续利用提供决策支持。
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关键词:
- 土地利用/覆盖变化(LUCC) /
- 耕地 /
- 驱动力 /
- 地理探测器 /
- 中亚五国
Abstract: Five countries located in the center of Eurasian continent (i.e., Central Asian countries) are important nodes along the Belt and Road Initiative, a global development strategy launched by China. The Central Asian countries' land-use and land-cover change (LUCC) characteristics from 1992 to 2015 were analyzed. The European Space Agency Climate Change Initiative global land cover data were used to determine the land-use degree, dynamic attitude, and transfer matrix by geographic information system (GIS) spatial analysis, and the driving force of cultivated land was explored using geographical detectors. The results showed that in the Central Asian countries, the area of cultivated and urban lands continuously increased, and that of forests, grasslands, and water areas decreased. Forests (7.88×104 km2) and grasslands (5.27×104 km2) were converted into cultivated land, and cultivated land (0.50×104 km2) was converted into urban areas. The transfer between land-use types was country-specific (e.g., cultivated land was created from forests and grasslands in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan and from unused land in Turkmenistan; cultivated land became urban areas in Uzbekistan) and closely associated with human activities. Urban land had the highest growth rate in all countries, followed by cultivated land (except in Uzbekistan), and cultivated land was the most variable land-use type. The land-use degree slowly increased (comprehensive index of land use degree was 193.34 in 1992, 197.41 in 2015), indicating that land-use was in the development stage. Land-use types ranked as follows (by land-use degree): cultivated lands > forests > grasslands > unused lands > water areas > urban lands. The driving forces for cultivated land changes were analyzed using geographical detectors and showed that the annual average precipitation had a significant effect. Social and agricultural factors also played a decisive role in the short term. The total population and rural population had the greatest influence on cultivated land expansion, followed by the per unit area grain yield. Interactive detection showed that interactions between factors were mutually reinforcing. In particular, super-positioning rural population and crop production index explained cultivated land expansion. The primary factors affecting cultivated land expansion were population growth and agricultural production improvement. These results are useful for planning sustainable land use in Central Asian countries. -
图 2 1992-2015年中亚五国降水(a)和气温(b)分级
Figure 2. Classification of precipitation (a) and temperature (b) in the five Central Asian countries from 1992 to 2015
图 3 1992-2015年中亚各国土地利用类型面积变化
Figure 3. Changes in areas of land use types in Central Asian countries from 1992 to 2015
图 4 1992-2015年中亚五国6个时期土地利用现状图
Figure 4. Maps of land use in the five Central Asian countries in different periods from 1992 to 2015
图 5 中亚五国1992-015年不同时期的土地利用动态度
Figure 5. Dynamic degrees of land use in the five Central Asian countries from 1992 to 2015
图 6 1992-2015年中亚五国土地利用程度变化
Figure 6. Changes in land use degrees in the five Central Asian countries from 1992 to 2015
图 7 1992-2015年中亚五国年平均降水量和年平均气温变化以及拟合趋势线
“**”表示达P < 0.01显著水平。
Figure 7. Changes of annual mean precipitation and annual mean temperature and linear regressions in the five Central Asian countries during 1992-2015
"**" represents significance at P < 0.01 level.
图 8 1992-2015年中亚五国各降水分区的耕地面积变化
Figure 8. Changes of cultivated land areas in precipitation zones of the five Central Asian countries from 1992 to 2015
表 1 中亚五国土地利用与土地覆盖类型重分类
Table 1. Reclassification of land use and land cover in the five Central Asian countries
欧洲太空局气候变化项目土地利用与土地覆盖分类系统
Land use and land cover classification system of Climate Change Initiative代码
Code重分类
Reclassification雨养农地 Rainfed farmland 10, 11, 12 耕地
Cultivated land水淹或灌溉农地 Flooded or irrigated farmland 20 耕作(50%~70%)/其他自然植被(20%~50%)镶嵌
Cultivation (50%-70%)/other natural vegetation (20%-50%) mosaic30 耕作(20%~50%)/其他自然植物(50%~70%)镶嵌
Cultivation (20%-50%)/other natural vegetation (50%-70%) mosaic40 郁闭或敞开(>15%)常绿阔叶林 Closed or open (>15%) evergreen broadleaved forest 50 林地
Forest land郁闭或敞开(>15%)落叶阔叶林 Closed or open (>15%) deciduous broadleaved forest 60, 61 郁闭或敞开(>15%)常绿针叶林 Closed or open (>15%) evergreen coniferous forest 70, 71, 72 郁闭或敞开(>15%)落叶针叶林 Closed or open (>15%) deciduous coniferous forest 80, 81 针阔混交林 Coniferous and broadleaved mixed forest 90 林地和灌丛(≥50%)/草地(< 50%)镶嵌体
Woodland and shrub (≥50%)/grassland (< 50%) mosaic100 淡水或咸水水淹林地 Flooded woodland with fresh or salt water 160 咸水水淹林地 Salt water flooded woodland 170 灌木 Shrub 120, 122 稀疏植被(林地、灌木) Sparse vegetation (woodland, shrub) 150 草地(≥50%)/林地和灌丛(< 50%)镶嵌体
Grassland (≥50%)/woodland and shrub (< 50%) mosaic110 草地
Grassland草地 Grassland 130 稀疏草地(< 15%) Sparse grassland (< 15%) 153 裸地 Bare land 200, 201, 202 未利用地 Unused land 郁闭或敞开(>15%)各种有规律水淹或长期水浸草地
Closed or open (>15%) various regularly flooded or chronically flooded grasslands180 水域
Water area水体 Water body 210 永久冰雪 Permanent ice and snow 220 人工地表或附属区域 Artificial surface or ancillary area 190 城镇用地 Urban land 
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表 2 土地利用类型及分级表
Table 2. land use type and its classification
土地分级
Land classification未利用土地级
Grade of unused land林、草、水用地级
Grade of forestland, grassland and water area农业用地级
Grade of agricultural land城镇聚落用地级
Grade of urban settlement land土地利用类型
Land use type未利用地
Unused land林地、草地、水域
Forest land, grassland and water area耕地
Cultivated land城镇用地
Urban land分级指数 Grading index 1 2 3 4
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表 3 中亚五国土地利用/覆盖变化驱动力分析的指标体系
Table 3. Indicators system of driving forces of land use/cover change in the five Central Asian countries
维度
Dimension指标
Index自然因素
Natural factor年平均降水量 Annual mean precipitation (X1) 年平均气温 Annual mean temperature (X2) 海拔高度 Altitude (X3) 社会因素
Social factor人口总数 Total population (X4) 农村人口 Rural population (X5) 经济因素
Economical factor国内生产总值 Gross domestic product (GDP) (X6) 工业增加值 Industrial added value (X7) 农业增加值 Added value of agriculture (X8) 农业因素 Agricultural factor 粮食单产Grain yield per unit area land (X9)
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表 4 交互探测器交互作用类型
Table 4. Interaction types of interaction detector
判断依据 Criterion 交互作用 Interaction q(X1∩X2) < min[q(X1), q(X2)] 非线性减弱 Nonlinear attenuation min[q(X1), q(X2)] < q(X1∩X2) < max[q(X1∩X2)] 单因子非线性减弱 Single factor nonlinear attenuation q(X1∩X2)>max[q(X1), (X2)] 双因子增强 Two-factor enhancement q(X1∩X2)=q(X1)+q(X2) 独立 Independent q(X1∩X2)>q(X1)+q(X2) 非线性增强 Nonlinear enhancement
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表 5 中亚五国1992-015年各时期土地利用转移矩阵
Table 5. Transfer matrix of land use in the five Central Asian countries from 1992 to 2015
×104 km2 1992 2015 耕地
Cultivated land林地
Forest land草地
Grassland未利用地
Unused land水域
Water area城镇用地
Urban land转出
Roll out中亚五国
Five Central Asian countries耕地 Cultivated land 71.37 0.66 0.75 0.11 0.03 0.50 2.05 林地 Forest land 7.88 99.44 1.98 0.22 0.07 0.04 10.19 草地 Grassland 5.27 1.38 97.01 0.25 0.03 0.11 7.04 未利用地 Unused land 0.48 4.58 1.93 93.81 0.13 0.02 7.14 水域 Water area 0.1 0.18 0.15 3.07 13.62 0 3.50 城镇用地 Urban land 0 0 0 0 0 0.25 0 转入 Roll in 13.73 6.80 4.81 3.65 0.26 0.67 29.92 哈萨克斯坦
Kazakhstan耕地 Cultivated land 50.55 0.39 0.53 0.03 0.03 0.11 1.09 林地 Forest land 7.66 80.78 1.73 0.18 0.06 0.03 9.66 草地 Grassland 4.74 1.00 79.54 0.08 0.01 0.06 5.89 未利用地 Unused land 0.17 4.08 1.59 33.07 0.06 0.01 5.91 水域 Water area 0.09 0.16 0.14 1.55 7.62 0 1.94 城镇用地 Urban land 0 0 0 0 0 0.17 0 转入 Roll in 12.66 5.63 3.99 1.84 0.16 0.21 24.49 吉尔吉斯斯坦
Kyrgyzstan耕地 Cultivated land 4.65 0.08 0.11 0 0 0.05 0.24 林地 Forest land 0.08 3.34 0.15 0.01 0 0 0.24 草地 Grassland 0.29 0.28 7.71 0.07 0 0.01 0.65 未利用地 Unused land 0.01 0.03 0.07 1.72 0 0 0.11 水域 Water area 0 0 0 0 1.33 0 0 城镇用地 Urban land 0 0 0 0 0 0.01 0 转入 Roll in 0.38 0.39 0.33 0.08 0 0.06 1.24 塔吉克斯坦
Tajikistan耕地 Cultivated land 3.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0 0.04 0.07 林地 Forest land 0.01 1.01 0.02 0.01 0 0 0.04 草地 Grassland 0.08 0.04 6.24 0.06 0 0 0.18 未利用地 Unused land 0 0.06 0.08 2.26 0 0 0.14 水域 Water area 0 0 0 0 1.23 0 0 城镇用地 Urban land 0 0 0 0 0 0.01 0 转入 Roll in 0.09 0.11 0.11 0.08 0 0.04 0.43 土库曼斯坦
Turkmenistan耕地 Cultivated land 4.33 0.03 0.01 0.03 0 0.03 0.10 林地 Forest land 0.05 7.89 0.01 0.01 0 0 0.07 草地 Grassland 0.08 0.02 1.04 0.02 0 0.01 0.13 未利用地 Unused land 0.24 0.15 0.08 33.22 0.02 0.01 0.50 水域 Water area 0 0 0 0.02 2.52 0 0.02 城镇用地 Urban land 0 0 0 0 0 0.01 0 转入 Roll in 0.37 0.20 0.10 0.08 0.02 0.05 0.82 乌兹别克斯坦
Uzbekistan耕地 Cultivated land 8.81 0.15 0.09 0.03 0 0.28 0.55 林地 Forest land 0.09 6.40 0.06 0.02 0.01 0 0.18 草地 Grassland 0.09 0.04 2.46 0.02 0.01 0.03 0.19 未利用地 Unused land 0.06 0.26 0.11 23.52 0.04 0 0.47 水域 Water area 0.01 0.01 0.01 1.49 0.90 0 1.52 城镇用地 Urban land 0 0 0 0 0 0.06 0 转入 Roll in 0.25 0.46 0.27 1.56 0.06 0.31 2.91
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表 6 1992-2015年中亚五国不同时期各自然因子对耕地变化的作用强度
Table 6. Relative effects of natural factors on cultivated land change in different periods in the five Central Asian countries during 1992-2015
年份
Year年平均降水量
Annual mean precipitation (X1)年平均气温
Annual mean temperature (X2)海拔高度
Altitude (X3)1992 0.114 0.095 0.006 2005 0.135 0.118 0.003 2015 0.104 0.091 0.010
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表 7 2015年中亚五国各自然因子交互探测结果
Table 7. Interactive detection results of natural factors in the five Central Asian countries in 2015
年降水量
Annual precipitation (X1)年平均气温
Annual mean temperature (X2)海拔高度
Altitude (X3)年降水量 Annual precipitation (X1) 0.104 年平均气温
Annual mean temperature (X2)0.181 0.091 0.161 海拔高度 Altitude (X3) 0.163 0.161 0.010 年降水量和年平均气温交互探测结果满足min[q(X1), q(X2)] < q(X1∩X2) < max[q(X1∩X2)]; 平均降水量和海拔高度、年平均气温和海拔高度交互探测结果满足均满足q(X1∩X2)>q(X1)+q(X2), 所以各因子交互作用均为互相增强。The interactive detection results of annual precipitation and annual mean temperature meet the requirement of min [q(X1), q(X2)] < q(X1∩X2) < max[q(X1∩X2)]; the interactive detection results of annual mean precipitation and altitude, annual mean temperature and altitude meet the requirement of q(X1∩X2)>q(X1)+q(X2); so the interaction of each factor is mutually enhanced.
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表 8 1992-2015年中亚五国各社会经济因素对耕地变化的作用强度
Table 8. Relative effects of socio-economic factors on cultivated land change in different periods in the five Central Asian countries during 1992-2015
人口总数
Total population (X4)农村人口
Rural population (X5)国内生产总值
Gross domestic product (GDP) (X6)工业增加值
Industrial added value (X7)农业增加值
Added value of agriculture (X8)粮食单产
Grain yield per unit area land (X9)q statistic 0.882 0.881 0.591 0.591 0.499 0.746
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表 9 1992-2015年中亚五国各社会经济因素对耕地变化影响的交互探测结果
Table 9. Interactive detection results of effects of socio-economic factors on cultivated land change in the five Central Asian countries during 1992-2015
人口总数
Total population (X4)农村人口
Rural population (X5)国内生产总值
Gross domestic product (GDP) (X6)工业增加值
Industrial added value (X7)农业增加值
Added value of agriculture (X8)粮食单产
Grain yield per unit area land (X9)人口总数
Total population (X4)0.882 农村人口
Rural population (X5)0.887 0.881 国内生产总值
Gross domestic product (GDP) (X6)0.888 0.888 0.591 工业增加值
Industrial added value (X7)0.888 0.888 0.608 0.591 农业增加值
Added value of agriculture (X8)0.887 0.888 0.640 0.640 0.499 粮食单产
Grain yield per unit area land (X9)0.971 0.972 0.844 0.844 0.856 0.746
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表 10 2015年中亚五国各降水分区自然因素对耕地变化的作用强度(地理探测器q值)的变化趋势
Table 10. Changes of relative effects of natural factors on cultivated land change in precipitation zones of five Central Asian countries in 2015
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